1. Inventory Management Systems Developing a National System for GHG Inventories Lisa Hanle U.S. Environmental Protection Agency October 29, 2004 Panama City, Panama

2. Overview u What is a national inventory system u Importance of developing a national inventory system u Basic elements of a strong national inventory system u Conclusions

3. What is a National Inventory System? A national inventory system incorporates all the elements necessary to estimate GHG emissions and sinks, including institutional, legal and procedural arrangements Higher-quality inventory that meets needs of policy-makers, researchers and public Inventory Planning Inventory Management Inventory Preparation

4. Importance of Developing a National Inventory System u Ability to develop higher-quality inventory at more regular intervals (e.g., annually, every 2-4 years, etc). u Resources are focused on the most significant emission sources in the country u Sources of data are identified, appropriately archived and regularly accessible u Emission estimates are continually improved; adhere to international guidance (e.g., IPCC Good Practice Guidance) u The inventory and national inventory system can be a foundation for analysis of a range of energy and environmental issues

5. Inventory Planning: Institutional Arrangements u Single national entity responsible for Inventory development u Support appropriate training for Inventory staff EXAMPLEEXAMPLE

6. Example: U.S. National System Management Team (in EPA) u u Assemble Estimates u u General QA/QC u u Cross-Cutting Analyses (e.g., key sources) u u Prepare CRF Tables u u Conduct peer and public reviews u u Archives Inventory U.S. Inventory Management Team Source Lead: LULUCF Source Lead: Waste Source Lead: Ag Source Lead: IP and Solvents Source Lead: Energy Energy Dept., Universities, consultants Trade Associations, Consultants, U.S. Geological Survey Consultants, USDA, USFS Universities

7. Inventory Planning: Procedural Arrangements u Assign specific responsibilities: data collection, emission calculation, uncertainty analysis, and QA/QC u Develop a QA/QC Plan u Establish process for inventory review (expert and/or public review) u Incorporate methodological improvements u Develop a timeline for work

8. Example: U.S. Inventory Cycle Submit Inventory to UN April 15th Summer Gather data and prepare initial estimates March Incorporate public comments January-February Release for public comment Late December Incorporate expert comment Nov - Dec Expert and interagency review Mid October Prepare draft report June Kick-off Meeting

9. Inventory Planning: Legal Arrangements u Allow for the timely acquisition of all necessary data u Where national statistical agencies, private companies or others are relied upon for activity data, have arrangements been made to ensure data is available in time for the inventory cycle? u Identification of Ministry/person responsible for approving inventory prior to official submission

10. Inventory Planning: Identify Key Sources u A key source has a significant influence on a country’s total inventory of direct GHG in terms of both level of emissions, the trend in emissions, or both. (see GPG, Chpt.7) u A key source also may be determined through a qualitative assessment. u A key source category is one that is prioritized within the national inventory system u With limited resources, countries should focus on key sources to improve the quality of the GHG Inventory

11. Key Source Analysis: Example Level Assessment CO2 emissions from stationary combustion- coal: A key source CH4 emissions from manure management: Not a key source

12. Key Source Analysis: Example Trend Assessment Note: N 2 0 Emissions from adipic acid production a key source according to Trend, but not Level Assessment. Should still be treated as a key source.

13. Inventory Preparation u Develop emissions estimates (highest priority) u Collect activity data and emission factors; calculate emissions based on IPCC Good Practice Guidance u Implement QA/QC Plan u Basic checks should be completed on entire inventory (Tier 1) (see GPG Chpt. 8) u More in-depth examination of specific sources (Tier 2) u Prepare uncertainty estimates u Developing qualitative and/or quantitative estimates also may be useful for prioritizing future activities u Recalculate previous estimates, if necessary

14. Examples of Tier 1 QC Checks Check a sample of input data for transcription errors Check a sample of input data for transcription errors Reproduce a sample of emissions calculations; for complex models use simplified methods to judge relative accuracy Reproduce a sample of emissions calculations; for complex models use simplified methods to judge relative accuracy Confirm that relationships/links in underlying databases are correct Confirm that relationships/links in underlying databases are correct Are all data sources/references/assumptions documented Are all data sources/references/assumptions documented Check for consistency in data between source categories Check for consistency in data between source categories Are animal population data used for enteric fermentation the same as those used for manure management? Are animal population data used for enteric fermentation the same as those used for manure management?

15. Examples of Tier 2 QC Checks Assess emissions trends and/or activity data trends: if there are significant fluctuations can these be explained? Assess emissions trends and/or activity data trends: if there are significant fluctuations can these be explained? Assess representativeness of emission factors for national circumstances Assess representativeness of emission factors for national circumstances If use IPCC default, does the default reflect your own national circumstances? If use a country-specific emission factor, how does it compare with IPCC default? If use IPCC default, does the default reflect your own national circumstances? If use a country-specific emission factor, how does it compare with IPCC default? Compare estimates derived with a “top down” method to estimates derived from a “bottom up” methodology. Compare estimates derived with a “top down” method to estimates derived from a “bottom up” methodology.

16. Inventory Preparation u Documentation is key!! Everything must be documented, including: u All methods, emission factors and activity data should be documented; sufficient to allow expert to reproduce official estimates u References, including documentation of expert judgement u QA/QC Plan u Planned improvements u Uncertainty analysis u Recalculation

17. Inventory Preparation: Planned Improvements u Inventory development is an evolutionary process. u Future inventories build on existing structure, planned improvements should be based on: u Key source assessment: key sources should be estimated using higher-tiered methods u Issues arising during any technical review of inventory u Opportunities for improvement u Are better data sources available? u Can a better method be used? u Uncertainty analysis u Can additional analysis be undertaken to reduce uncertainty in emissions estimates?

18. Inventory Management u Archiving of all information used in inventory planning and preparation is essential u Information related to emission factors, activity data, key sources, QA/QC, uncertainty, methods used, technical review comments and response to comments should be archived u Archive may be electronic and/or hard copy u Should be located in single location u Need not be expensive: Simple but necessary! We need an archive !

19. Conclusions u National inventory systems are a foundation for more complete and higher-quality inventories u Inventory development is an evolutionary process; continuously improve capabilities to develop emission estimates u Resources focused on key sources u Inventory process should be transparently documented, an expert should be able to reproduce estimates u Goal: Develop higher quality inventory on a more regular basis (e.g., every 2-4 years)

20. Summary: Building Blocks of a Strong Inventory PREPARATION PLANNING MANAGEMENT Archiving Single entity, roles and responsibilities, QA/QC Plan, identify key sources, improvement plan Collect activity data & emission factors, estimate emissions, QA/QC, uncertainty, documentation Development of a higher quality inventory on a more regular basis

21. Muchas Gracias! CONTACT INFORMATION: Lisa Hanle U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Hanle.Lisa@epa.gov

22. Extra Slides

23. Example: U.S. National Inventory System u EPA has decentralized approach to preparing inventory u Individual source leads manage each source category u Determine methodology, data sources, improvements u Inventory coordinator collects emission estimates from individual source leads u Aggregates emissions, prepares NIR and CRF tables, archives each inventory submission

24. Example: U.S. National System u Individual source leads manage each source category u Develop most appropriate methods u Based on IPCC Guidelines and Good Practice Guidance u Collect best data u Research and improvements u Constant search for best way to account for source emissions