1 The Way Ahead Dr. Ed Smith Boeing Effects-Based Operations: The “how to”

2Outline 1.Complexity …and Effects-Based Operations Living systems 2.The Action-Reaction Cycle 3.Dissecting the Cycle Essential processes Drill Downs 4.Scalability and Timeliness Human intervention continua 5.Conclusion: “It’s the people, stupid!”

3 The Way Ahead

4 Effects-Based Operations: Effects-Based Operations: Coordinated sets of actions directed at shaping the behavior of friends, foes, and neutrals in peace, crisis, and war 1. Complexity

5 Complicated vs. Complex The Complicated –Predictable cause and effect chain –Inputs/outputs proportional; whole equals sum of parts The Complex –Multiple interdependent variables; changing cause and effect chain –Inputs and outputs not proportional; whole does not equal sum of the parts The Complex Adaptive –Not only complex but evolves independently …and The System of Complex Adaptive Systems

6 Group Organization Community Societal Supranational Organism Organ Cell OOOOOOO oooooooo oooooooooooooo James Grier Miller, Living Systems Biological Sociological

7 Tactical Unit Operational Command Military State International Warfighter OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO Al Qaeda Regional Franchise Local Network Terrorist Cell Terrorist State vs. Non-State Actor

8 Information Domain Cognitive Domain Physical Domain Action Objects/events Data (representation) Information (data in context) Options Choices among alternatives Choices to wait Choices to seek information Choices to consult others Directives Planning Judgment Red Blue Uncertainty Shared Awareness Mental Model Prior Knowledge Observer Cause and Effect Temporal relations Dynamic Futures Sensemaking Values Anticipated Futures Alternatives 2. The Action-Reaction-Cycle

9 Information Domain Cognitive Domain Physical Domain Action Objects/events Data (representation) Information (data in context) Options Choices among alternatives Choices to wait Choices to seek information Choices to consult others Directives Planning Synchronization Judgment Red Blue Uncertainty Shared Awareness Mental Model Prior Knowledge Observer Cause and Effect Temporal relations Dynamic Futures Sensemaking Values Anticipated Futures Alternatives Social Domain Religion Education Government And Politics Institutional Culture Economy Social Structure History & Culture …and Beyond - The Social Domain

10 Information Domain Cognitive Domain Physical Domain Action Objects/events Data (representation) Information (data in context) Options Choices among alternatives Choices to wait Choices to seek information Choices to consult others Directives Planning Judgment Red Blue Uncertainty Shared Awareness Mental Model Prior Knowledge Observer Cause and Effect Temporal relations Dynamic Futures Sensemaking Values Anticipated Futures Alternatives Social Domain Religion Education Government And Politics Institutional Culture Economy Social Structure History & Culture Continuing Action Reaction Cycles but…

11 …on a Spiral Continuum Time Peace Crisis Hostilities

12 Information Domain Cognitive Domain Physical Domain Action Objects/events Data (representation) Information (data in context) Options Choices among alternatives Choices to wait Choices to seek information Choices to consult others Directives Planning Synchronization Judgment Shared Awareness Mental Model Prior Knowledge Observer Cause and Effect Temporal relations Dynamic Futures Observer Cause and Effect Temporal relations Dynamic Futures Sensemaking Values Anticipated Futures Alternatives Social Domain Religion Education Government And Politics Institutional Culture Economy Social Structure History & Culture 3. Dissecting the Cycle 1.Awareness Creation 1.Awareness Creation 2. Sensemaking 3. Decision-Making 4. Execution 5. Social Influence

13 Awareness Creation Tasking Collection Fusion SensorsHuman Reporting Open Sources Parameters History Data Handling Process Personnel Train Manage Validation Interpreting Mining Validation Assessment Collate Fuse Electronic Human Sources Subjects System Capacity Priority Situation Decision Level Person History Org. History Org. Linear Models

Sensemaking Contextualization History Knowledge Base Mental Model Analysis Compilation Situation Time History Retrieval Tasking feedback Organization History Internal Subject External Interface Identify Validate Culture Organization Profession Society Idiosyncratic Cause/ Effect Futures Process Organization Personalities Cascades Physical Psychological Cascades Military Diplomatic Economic Political Intentions Future Actions

15 Decision-making By Level Capabilities Available Military Economic Political Required Effects Direct Indirect Observers Foe Friend Neutral Options Choice/Plan Projected Sensemaking Evaluate/ Choose Self Desired End State Short Term Long Term Diplomatic Plan Course of Action By Level Actions Allied Capabilities Assess/Assign Non-Organic Communicate Create Courses Of Action Evaluate Feasibility Timeliness Choose Organic Accessible Coordinate Military Diplomatic Economic Political Flexibility Robustness Direction/ Guidance

16 Execution ObservablesContext Feedback Surveillance Foe Friend Neutral Observables Coordination Planned Ambient Military Diplomatic Economic Political Military Diplomatic Economic Political Immediate Tactical Immediate Other Unplanned

17 Social Domain Mental Models UnderstandingSensemakingOptions Choice Group Organization Individual Viability Acceptability Experience Education Training Level Culture National Organizational Global Awareness Access Media

18 Information Domain Cognitive Domain Physical Domain Action Objects/events Data (representation) Information (data in context) Options Choices among alternatives Choices to wait Choices to seek information Choices to consult others Directives Planning Synchronization Judgment Shared Awareness Mental Model Observer Cause and Effect Temporal relations Dynamic Futures Observer Cause and Effect Temporal relations Dynamic Futures Sensemaking Values Anticipated Futures Alternatives Prior Knowledge Societal Domain Religion Education Government And Politics Institutional Culture Economy Social Structure History & Culture 4. Scalability and Timeliness Observe Orient Decide Act 5. Societal Influence

19 Human Intervention Four Rules of Thumb: The greater the uncertainties and ambiguities… The greater the complexity… The shorter the decision-time… The poorer the networking… The greater the human intervention required

20 Conclusion: “It’s the people, stupid!” So where’s the cookbook? –Effects-Based Operations = People = Complexity therefore… –There is no cookbook Complex, multi-level, multi-arena responses Human in the loop is key –Challenge 1: where, when, how –Challenge 2: increasing probability of being right Second Generation Network Centric Operations –Supporting the man in the loop –Networking vice networks