1. Risk and Decision Making
Manager and Leader Course
Hampshire Workforce Development Corporate Shared Services

3. By the end of the course you will be able to:
Actively enhance your service by managing risks associated with new ways of working, making balanced and considered decisions that drive us forward
Learning Outcomes
By the end of the course you will be able to:
Evaluate your risk taking and decision making approaches strengths and potential pitfalls
Embrace risk and demonstrate a healthy curiosity for ‘what if….’ options and solutions
Effectively assess options, political implications and risks, and make decisions based on ‘good enough’ information
Manage risk appropriately whilst creating innovative solutions and improving service delivery.

4. Risk and Decision Making continuum
1 - ‘I like to stick with what I know’ 10 - ‘Life is all about taking risks’ 1 - ‘I like to take my time making decisions’ 10 - ‘I jump in and make decisions’

5. Your Approaches In groups discuss:
Why you scored the way you have on both risk and decision making continuums.
Any surprises?
Any differences in personal and business contexts and why?
The types of decisions and risks you make/take.
What does all this mean for you? 
What do you want to get from today?
Note key points to share with the larger group

6. Internal attention
External attention
Real World
Searching
Memory
Recall
Path, People
What, When, Where
Why (importance)
Training
Knowledge
Experience
Our understanding of the situation

7. Definitions Review In groups discuss what you think:
Of the definitions?
Of the risk management cycle and when to use it?
This means for you?
Note key points to share with the larger group

8. RISK
“Something may happen (cause), which may lead to something else happening (the effect), where the impact could be something negative or positive (preferably quantifiable).” CAUSE – EFFECT – IMPACT You could also articulate a risk as "There is a risk of/that……..which may result in ……..".

9. Outcome, certainty, uncertainty and risk
Outcome: The end result of a course of action. Prior knowledge/ visioning or accurate predictions can help to bring about the desired outcome.
Certainty: Complete and accurate knowledge of the result of our choices. ‘We are sure of the results, or we have a level of certainty’
Uncertainty: Multiple possibilities for each choice can be identified, “We don’t know what is going to happen next, and we do not know what the final result or outcome will be.”
Risk: Decision making with consequences: The effect of uncertainty on a proposed action(s) or objective(s) “We don’t know what is going to happen next, and we do not know what the final result or outcome will be.”

10. A Definition of decision making
‘Decision making is the mental process of choosing from a set of alternatives. Since doing nothing or remaining neutral is usually among the set of options one chooses from, selecting that course is also making a decision.’
Source: “Defining Decision Making” Boundless Management. Boundless, 21 Jul Retrieved 24 Nov from

11. The Risk Management Cycle
Regular monitoring and review
Risk management policy
Action taken to address Risk
Risk identification
Risk assessment

12. 10 top risks Damage to reputation/brand Economic slowdown
Regulatory/legislative changes
Increasing competition
People skills retention and attraction
Failure to innovate/meet customer needs
Business interruption
Third party failure
Computer crime/hacking/malicious codes/viruses
Property damage
Global risk management survey 2015 – AON risk solutions

13. if something good happens
Where you might get to
if something good happens
Performance
Current direction of travel
t Time t1
Where you might get to
if something bad happens

14. Performance
Risk Universe
t Time t1

15. Performance
Risk
Tolerance
t Time t1

16. Performance
Risk
Appetite
t Time t1

17. Risk appetite and tolerance
Risk appetite willingness and commitment to take a risk
– actively engage with……
the amount and type of risk that an organisation is willing to pursue/retain (ISO standard)
Risk tolerance boundaries within which a organisation/person has the capacity and the capability to take a risk
– if we had to, we would just about be able to engage with……
the readiness by the organisation (or stakeholder) to bear the risk (after treatment) in order to achieve its objectives (ISO standard)

18. Your Risk Universe In pairs Is what you’ve written: Your risk universe
Your risk tolerance
Your risk appetite
What could be even worse and even better?

19. Goal
Action
Result
Feedback

20. Feedback Feed forward Goal Action Result Situation Awareness
Anticipated Result
Think Ahead
Understand
Perceive
Situation
Awareness
Planned Action
Feed forward
Goal
Action
Result
Feedback

21. Joint Decision Making Model

22. Joint Decision Making Model
What parts of this model are you already doing?
Which parts of this model could you build on?
How are others in your organisation/ area using parts of this model?

23. Behaviours that support risk taking and decisions
Achievement driven balanced with understanding of organisational goals, values and vision.
Open to learn and seek support
Open to give and receive feedback, take personal accountability for their actions and outcomes
See and understand the big picture, not just the decisions in isolation
Able to apply learning/experience and recognise patterns, able to deal with ambiguity.

24. Internal Distraction Prior hypothesis Illusion of Control
Representation or generalization
Escalating commitment
Unconscious bias

25. Trust
“If we want people to take risks, we have to enable them to feel psychologically and emotionally safe” John Drew & Helen Bevan HSJ

26. Trust and Empowerment
In groups discuss: How do/will I build and increase levels of two-way trust for myself, upwards, sideways and with my team? How do/will I empower myself and my teams to stretch and make difficult decisions and take risks?

27. Activity – action planning
What have you learnt from other parts of the organisation?
What will you take back?

28. By the end of the course you will be able to:
Actively enhance your service by managing risks associated with new ways of working, making balanced and considered decisions that drive us forward
Learning Outcomes
By the end of the course you will be able to:
Evaluate your risk taking and decision making approaches strengths and potential pitfalls
Embrace risk and demonstrate a healthy curiosity for ‘what if….’ options and solutions
Effectively assess options, political implications and risks, and make decisions based on ‘good enough’ information
Manage risk appropriately whilst creating innovative solutions and improving service delivery.

29. Hampshire Workforce Development Corporate Shared Services
Hampshire Workforce Development Management, Leadership, Performance and Change
Hampshire Workforce Development Corporate Shared Services