Labor Market Risks of a Magnitude 6.9 Earthquake in Alameda County Richard Holden, U.S. DOL/BLS Donna Bahls, California EDD Charles Real, Cal. Geological Survey

Research Question: Can existing detailed labor market information be mapped against earthquake shaking intensities to produce estimates of economic exposure?

Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) Developed through a cooperative program between the states and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Data include detailed industry level establishment counts, annual employment, and annual and weekly wages for every county, Metropolitan Statistical Area, and state

QCEW Approximately 96% of business establishments in California are geocoded to physical location Data are confidential in California The data can be aggregated by geographic areas to provide information on business establishments, industry, employment, and wages

QCEW California Over 1.2 million Business Establishments Over 15 million Employees Almost $200 billion in Quarterly Wages

Earlier uses of QCEW data in disaster areas Southern California Fires 2003 and 2007 Businesses and Employment within burn areas Hurricane Katrina – Louisiana and Mississippi Businesses and Employment within flooded and wind damaged areas

Southern California Wildfires 2003 and 2007

Hurricane Katrina 2005

A Collaboration between U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics California Geological Survey California Employment Development Department Labor Market Risks of a Magnitude 6.9 Earthquake in Alameda County

Shaking Intensity Zones in the San Francisco Bay Area

Employers in Shaking Intensity Zones in the San Francisco Bay Area

25,776 Employers 400,521 Employees $5.1 B in Quarterly Wages Zone 8+: Severe Shaking, Moderate/Heavy Damage Zone 7: Very Strong Shaking, Moderate Damage 11,567 Employers 208,709 Employees $3.1 B in Quarterly Wages Approximately 90 percent of the businesses, employees, and payrolls are in most intense shaking zones on the map.

Hayward Event Losses Compared to Hurricane Katrina in 2004 Early map-estimated losses from Katrina Employers: 31,000 Employees: 500,000 Payroll: $4.7 B quarterly wages Less than estimated exposure in MMI 7 and 8+ zones

Industry Exposures in Alameda County (MMI 8+) Health care and social assistance Manufacturing Trade (wholesale and retail) Educational services Others

Hayward 6.9 Earthquake Potential for major economic dislocation to businesses, employees and economy Possible wide-ranging multiplier effects across industries Effects felt in Bay Area and California

(search for Hayward Earthquake)