My view of monetary policy 2006-2011 Handelsbanken, March 18 th 2011 First Deputy Governor Svante Öberg.

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Presentation transcript:

My view of monetary policy Handelsbanken, March 18 th 2011 First Deputy Governor Svante Öberg

Figure 1. Real short-term interest rates in the USA and the euro area Per cent Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Eurostat and Reuters

Figure 2. Real housing prices USA Index 1950 = 100 Source: Robert J. Schiller, Princeton University

Figure 3. Global GDP growth Annual percentage change Sources: IMF and the Riksbank

Figure 4. Commodity prices Index 2005=100 Sources: The Economist and Reuters

Figure 5. Nominal and real short-term interest rates in Sweden Per cent Sources: Reuters EcoWin and Statistics Sweden Note. Real rate is nominal rate deflated with CPIF.

Figure 6. GDP gap in real time and in February 2011 Per cent Source: The Riksbank

Figure 7. Inflation Annual percentage change Source: Statistics Sweden

Figure 8. Inflation expectations Per cent Source: TNS SIFO Prospera

Figure 9. Lending to households and house prices Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 10. Nominal rate and Taylor rate Per cent Source: The Riksbank

Figure 11. GDP growth Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 12. Unemployment Per cent, 3-month moving average, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 13. Inflation Annual percentage change Source: Statistics Sweden

Figure 14. Central banks’ balance sheet totals Percentage of GDP

Figure 15. Policy rates Per cent Source: Reuters EcoWin

Figure 16. Global GDP growth Annual percentage change Sources: IMF and the Riksbank

Figure 17. The repo rate and the repo- rate path Per cent, quarterly mean values Source: The Riksbank

Figure 18. Inflation Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate.

Figure 19. RU indicator Per cent Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. RU indicator is normalised so that the mean value is zero and the standard deviation is 1.

Figure 20. Unemployment Per cent, 3-month moving mean value, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 21. Labour shortages Per cent, seasonally-adjusted data, share of business sector companies Source: NIER

Figure 22. Beveridge curve Percentage of labour force Sources: Employment Office and Statistics Sweden Vacancies Unemployment