WHAT IS NEW : PERCEPTION & POLITICS NATIONAL ACTION PROGRAMMES SHIFTS IN GROWTH PATHWAYS WOULD RESULT IN AVOIDANCE OF EMISSIONS, NOT THE OTHER WAY ROUND MEASURED IN TERMS OF DEVIATION FROM BUSINESS AS USUAL EMISSIONS EFFICIENCY IN THE USE OF ENERGY, WATER, RESOURCES; AGRICULTURE & HEALTH RESEARCH; NEW KNOWLEDGE

EVIDENCE: BURDEN SHARING The additional cost of building integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) coal fired plants in China instead of more conventional plants has been estimated by the US National Academy of Sciences to be $190 billion China has only 13 per cent of the number of cars in the US, with a population that is four times larger.

EVIDENCE:HUMAN WELL BEING In developing countries three quarters of the electricity generated goes for industrial production and any reduction in emissions will have a direct impact on economic growth, unlike in developed countries where consumption by households accounts for two-thirds of the electricity generated, and reductions will impact only on lifestyles

GLOBAL PLAN TO CHANGE THE NATURE OF GROWTH HISTORICAL RESPONSIBILITY OF DEVELOPED COUNTRIES TO REDUCE EMISSIONS DEVELOPING COUNTRIES RESPONSIBILITY FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT WITH EMISSIONS REDUCTION AS A RESULT ENABLED BY TRANSFER OF TECHNOLOGY AND FINANCIAL RESOURCES

SHARED VISION EQUAL SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL FOR ALL COUNTRIES SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT ALONE WILL DELIVER THE DESIRED RESULTS – MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION SHIFTS IN ECONOMIC GROWTH PATHWAYS – PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION PATTERNS INNOVATION INSTEAD OF REGULATION

BALANCE OF RIGHTS AND OBLIGATIONS OF COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRY COMMITMENTS ARE ENABLED AND/OR SUPPORTED BY TRANSFERS OF FINANCE (1% GDP) AND TECHNOLOGY (REVIEW IPR REGIME)

BALANCE BETWEEN THE ROLE OF STATE,MARKETS AND CITIZENS INDUSTRIALISATION AND/OR PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION AS THE CAUSE OF THE PROBLEM ELIMINATION OF TRADE BARRIERS AND/OR STATE SUPPORT AS INCENTIVES TO THE PRIVATE SECTOR NEEDS FOR HUMAN WELLBEING AND/OR ACHIEVING A LOW CARBON SOCIETY

SHIFTS IN KNOWLEDGE An independent evaluation of the World Bank’s support for environmental sustainability over the past 15 years concluded that insufficient attention had been paid to longer term sustainable development …… transitioning towards a low carbon economy coupled with expanding clean and affordable energy access to the poor

SHIFTS IN PERSPECTIVES The United Nations ‘Human Development Report, 2007/8, Fighting Climate Change: Human Solidarity in a Divided World’, concludes that the “fundamental challenge is the way we think about progress. …..carbon intensive economic growth is symptomatic of a deeper problem…that the economic model which drives growth, and the profligate consumption in rich countries that goes with it, is unsustainable”.

WAY FORWARD Response to the shift in economic power and demand has largely been of a scarcity mentality seen as a zero-sum game, rather than development of a shared vision where everyone can become better off. patterns of resource use would have to be common for all countries, with focus on incease in productivity of resource use No single solution – new technologies and behavioral change will play a key role

NEW COMMITMENTS CAP AND TRADE: % EMISSIONS REDUCTION BY 2050 DEVIATION FROM BUSINESS AS USUAL EMISSIONS, THAT COULD BE ENHANCED BY FINANCE AND TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER CONSIDERATION OF ADAPTATION NEEDS AND NATIONAL ACTION PLANS

EVIDENCE: TRENDS IN DEVELOPED COUNTRIES Emissions from industrial emissions have been steady since 1992, and any global standard in steel and cement sectors would be based on levels they have already achieved. The Energy Information Administration has predicted that coal would provide 57 per cent of US electrical power production in 2030, up from 51 per cent today

SHIFTS IN UNDERSTANDING the “only serious defensible principle is equal emission rights per capita, adjusted for past emissions…. as a process of slowly easing in emission rights would increase inequities associated with past emissions….only through changes in patterns of demand will adverse effects on developing countries be mitigated”. Stiglitz – address to the International Economics Association 2008

SHIFTS IN THE ECONOMY The International Energy Agency points out that in developed countries technological and lifestyle changes combined with higher incomes have significantly altered energy use patterns since the Convention was negotiated, with over two-thirds of carbon dioxide emissions now coming from the services, households and travel sectors. Between , energy consumption has increased by 50% in the services sector, by 35% in households, and by 25% in transportation, as a result final energy use - and emissions of carbon dioxide - have each increased by 14 % The citizen is the driver of emissions of GHG

SHIFTS IN RESEARCH According to the IPCC the adverse impacts of climate change will fall disproportionately on developing countries McKinsey research shows that the growth of worldwide energy demand can be cut in half or more over the next 15 years, without reducing the benefits that energy’s end-users enjoy - and while supporting economic growth – by focussing on demand side management

SHIFTS IN ASSESSMENTS “the times when it was possible to sweeten a deal for developing countries with placebo funds and voluntary declarations have irrevocably past” ( Benito Muller, Oxford Institute for energy studies ) CDM has not led to real reductions or transfer of technology ( Victor and Ward ) Sustainability has not as yet become a part of business strategy ( Arthur D. Little research)