The Impact of Hydroclimatic Variations and Change on Water Resources Decision Making and Adaptation Case Study: Sustainable Water Allocation Policy in Maine Shaleen Jain University of Maine Collaborators: David Courtemanch, Maine Department of Environmental Protection David Hart, Mitchell Center, University of Maine Graduate Student: Krista Ricupero Postdoctoral Researcher: Jong-Suk Kim

Recent promulgation of first-in-the-nation statewide streamflow and lake level rules as part of Maine’s Water Quality Standards Analysis of Implementation: Hydroclimatic Information Needs (Climate-Hydrology-Ecosystems) Adaptive Policy Consideration: Adequacy in the face of Climate Variability & Change

HUMANHUMAN NATURALNATURAL SUSTAINABILITY CONSIDERATIONS Community Water Systems Agriculture Hydropower …... Maine’s Sustainable Water Allocation Policy  Provide Seasonal Aquatic Base Flows [Median Flows during six regulatory seasons]  Protection of Aquatic life resources and Water Quality Standards Endangered Salmon Reduced Alewife populations …...

HYDROCLIMATIC VARIABILITY & CHANGE HUMANHUMAN FLOW REGULATION WITHDRAWALS; ALTERED REGIME NATURALNATURAL ECOSYSTEM SERVICES Maine’s Sustainable Water Allocation Policy  Provide Seasonal Aquatic Base Flows [Median Flows during six regulatory seasons]  Protection of Aquatic life resources and Water Quality Standards WATER ALLOCATION POLICY

Hydroclimatic Variability and Change  Identification of climate precursors most relevant to regional hydrologic variability and change  Diagnosis of changes in the seasonally-varying aquatic base flow (ABF) and hydrologic extremes  On short time scales (seasonal to annual), use of predictive information for adaptive environmental management.  On longer time scales, “Given the changing envelope of hydroclimate, is there an expiration date for a certain water allocation rule or flow policy?” Long-term changes in the streamflow and ABF. Changes in the seasonal flood frequency: St. John River, Maine

Streamgaging Network ( )

Six regulatory Seasons: Long-term changes in the flow distributions

Hydroclimatic Extremes St. John River at Fort Kent, Maine Flood of Record (May 2008)

Emerging Trends in Flood Frequency: St. John River, Maine

Tropical North Hemisphere Circulation pattern Temperature (Jan-Feb) Emerging Winter Floods (January-February)

Emerging Flood Frequency Trends (St. John River, Maine): Large-Scale Climate Connections Seasonal Flood potential (Use of predictive climate information) Integration of IPCC 4th Assessment results into regional impacts and adaptation work

Changing Flood Frequency: St. John River, Maine Winter Annual Maxima

 Water resources allocation rulemaking to support ecosystem function reflects commitment toward environmental sustainability  Research questions derived from stakeholder and information provider contexts have the great potential to inform policy and adaptation efforts  Changes diagnosed in the aquatic base flow (that mimics the natural flow regime)  Systematic changes in climate and associated hydrologic variations coincide with the water resources operations and planning time horizons, provides an important entry point for climate information into developing risk aversive long-term adaptive management strategies.  Ongoing work is seeking to integrate decision models, ecosystems assessment within an integrated Climate-Hydrology- Ecosystems framework  Modeling and Characterization of the relative role of surface- groundwater interactions, surface stores, and lan-use changes  Changes in floods present a new baseline to scrutinize infrastructure adequacy and response to changing extremes  Maine Sustainability Science Initiative: Impacts of Urbanization and Land-use on Social-Ecological Systems Dynamics Take home messages

North Maine Woods (Fall ‘08)