Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Practices by Proxy Climate, Consumption and Water (and troubles with data...) Dr Ben Anderson University of Essex
Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Contents Why? Water 'practices' How? Proxies What? Models Problems? Data Where next?
Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Why: Water is (going to be) a problem Energy problems: Carbon cost of `clean' water The water industry currently accounts for 5 million tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions per Year - almost one per cent of UK greenhouse gas emissions. Environment Agency 2009
Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Why: Water is (going to be) a problem Energy problems: Carbon cost of `clean' water Supply problems Locally/regionally scarce Climate change? Demand problems 50% used by households Poorly understood Climate change? With no 'behaviour' change and no flow controls Source: DEFRA, 2011
Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 What do we want to know? Practices in which water is implicated Diversity habituation, routine, practical consciousness, tacit knowledge, tradition Performance often neither fully conscious nor reflective Alan Warde, 2005 Why people don’t do what they ‘should’ - Jim Skea, 2011
Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 What do we want to know? Practices in which water is implicated Diversity Proxies for practices? 'Traces' of water Relationship with climate? Mediation, adaptation Relationship to demand? From practices to litres Image: Eric Shipton, 1951
Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Conceptual Framework Water demand = f(price + demographics + practices + attitudes) + error Policy levers & Interventions habituation, routine, neither conscious nor reflective Regulation Market Supply ?? Education Information Persuasion
Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Conceptual Framework Water demand = f(price + demographics + practices + attitudes) + error Policy levers & Interventions habituation, routine, neither conscious nor reflective Regulation Market Supply ?? Education Information Persuasion Climate change
Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 How: Expenditures as Proxies IdealProxy (LCF ) water (l/day) Attitudes Demographics Price Practices £ water/week Attitudes Demographics Price £/week Shampoo,soap detergents Garden products Fruit & Veg Tea, coffee, juices Regional Climate/Weather linked to survey quarter
Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 How: Modelling Approach 2005 prices Selection: Metered only Combined water & sewerage Seasonal models All households Metered11119 Separate water & sewerage Remaining9732
Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 What: Summary Results Climate/Weather Practices Traces of Practices? Linear regression (OLS), Wald Table, n = 11,192, final r sq = 27%
Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 What: Practice 'effects' Traces of Practices ?
Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 What: Weather 'interaction effects' ProxySpringSummer Main effect InteractionMain effectInteraction Leaf & stem vegetables (unusually hot) Detergents/washing powder (number of rain days) plants, flowers, seeds, fertilisers, insecticides N/s0.018 (temperature)
Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 So... The 'proxies for practices' approach has value But Garden/soils etc Period of water use? Expenditures as proxies? High spend != high volume Recall/response 'error'? Zeros! What to do? 72% reported no spend on soaps, shower gels etc in 2010!
Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Approaches to 'validation' Link 'real' data Model response data Aggregate and compare with other sources
Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Linking 'water' Practice based survey of water 'habits' 1800 respondents across South & East England Linked metering data for survey respondents For those who agreed to linkage And whose water company also agreed (!) Metered:76942% Agreed to linkage:282 15% Agreed to linkage and metered 1327% 10% didn't know To date we only have 64 records To date we only have 32 records Of whom 4 are metered who said they weren't!
Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Linking 'water': What we hope for...
Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Linking 'water': What we get metered respondents who agreed to data linkage AND estimated monthly water bill To be refreshed when more data arrives
Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Aggregating 'electricity' Ia Survey: LCF 2010 DECC Sub-regional electricity statistics (aggregated LSOAs)
Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Aggregating 'electricity' Ib
Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Aggregating 'electricity' IIa Ideally Geo-referenced clusters of LCF households Compare to DECC LSOA data
Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Aggregating 'electricity' IIa Ideally Geo-referenced clusters of LCF households Compare to DECC LSOA data So: Small Area Estimation East of England LSOA level electricity demand estimates Census 2001 & LCF 2010 Compare to DECC LSOA data New data please! 'Spatial Microsimulation'
Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Aggregating 'electricity' IIb Forest Heath 002A/B c. 73% = Born in the USA! LSOAs East of England
Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Aggregating 'electricity' IIc
Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Aggregating 'electricity' IId Spearman rho: Town: Urban: Village:
Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 So what? We can map: Energy 'poverty' Energy 'inequality' And we can model Potential policy effects
Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 So what? We can map: Energy 'poverty' Energy 'inequality' And we can model Potential policy effects But also The electricity expenditures may be robust
Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Conclusions Thinking about expenditures as proxies for practices Has some value BUT there are problems Zeros? Mis-reporting? Where next?
Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Conclusions Thinking about expenditures as proxies for practices Has some value BUT there are problems Zeros? Mis-reporting? Where next? Data linkage? Micro and area level calibration?
Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Thank you Dr Ben Anderson Sustainable Practices Research Group Spatial microsimulation: cresi.essex.ac.uk/getPubsByTag?tag=spatial%20microsimulation