1. The scale of the climate challenge Andrew Watkinson School of Environmental Sciences University of East Anglia a.watkinson@uea.ac.uk

2. A changing climate Arctic Europe Asia N America Australasia S America Antarctica Source Pages 2K Consortium 2013; Marcott et al 2013

3. A changing climate Source: IPCC WGI 2013

4. Fossil fuel emissions Global CO 2 emissions from fossil fuel burning decreased by 1.3% in 2009 Emissions increased by more than 3% in 2010, approaching the high growth rates of 2000 to 2008 Growth in emissions closely follows growth in GDP 2009 USA −6.9% UK −8.6% Germany −7% Japan −11.8% Russia −8.4% China +8% India +6.2% South Korea +1.4% Source: Friedlinstein et al 2010, Peters et al 2012 CO 2 emissions PgC/yr Global financial crisis Asian financial crisis Collapse of FSU Oil crisis US savings and loan crisis

5. Action: reducing emissions Examples of global emission pathways where cumulative CO2 emissions equal 750 Gt during the time period 2010-2050 (1 Gt C = 3.67 Gt CO2). At this level, there is a 67% probability of limiting global warming to a maximum of 2°C. Energy (61.3%) Land use (18.2%) Industrial processes (3.4%) Agriculture (13.5%) Waste (3.6%) Source

6. Targeting demand Fuel Production, Extraction &Transport PowerstationTransmission Electricity Consumption Light 105054120133 Source: Kevin Anderson

7. Driving behaviour Traffic flow Total distance Source: McKinsey and Co. 2009 Managing demand: behaviour

8. Difficult choices Source: UK Household Longitudinal Study (n=39987)

9. Carbon hot spots Source: NHS Sustainable Development Unit

10. Reducing UK emissions Source: Climate Change Committee (2010) The Fourth Carbon Budget Electricity Transport Residential Services Industry Other

11. Source: Stockholm Environment Institute 2009 Transforming the energy supply

12. Progress? UK’s Global Emissions Source: Barrett et al 2013: Climate Policy Health and Social Care England Carbon Footprint

13. Can we do it? Global CO2 emissions continue to grow rapidly (+3% p.a.) 2 ºC requires an early peak and sustained reductions Need to target both supply and demand Technology and economic feasibility will be increased by Early and broadly based international mitigation action Limiting growth in energy demand through behavioural change and efficiency Utilising a portfolio of technologies with R&D in key areas, e.g. CCS, vehicles, advanced fuels, storage Availability of affordable negative emissions technologies Action on non-CO2 greenhouse gases such as nitrous oxide And if we can’t?

14. Geoengineering options Aerosols in stratosphere Iron fertilisation in sea Pump liquid CO2 into deep sea Pump liquid CO2 into rock Greening deserts GM crops Grow trees Cloud seeding Chemicals to save ozone Giant reflectors in orbit Source: IGBP 2009

15. The adaptation agenda Source: DEFRA UKCP09 Climate Change Risk Assessment

16. Climate Change Risk Assessment The global climate is changing and warming will continue over the next century The UK is already vulnerable to extreme weather, including flooding and heatwaves Flood risk is projected to increase significantly across the UK UK water resources are projected to come under increased pressure Potentially, there are health benefits as well as threats related to climate change, affecting the most vulnerable groups in our society Sensitive ecosystems are likely to come under increasing pressure etc

17. What’s in the flood plain? The Flood Plain and Index of Multiple Deprivation 2010

18. Significant chanceModerate chanceLow chance Infrastructure already at risk Source: Environment Agency

19. Reducing the probability

20. Increasing resilience

21. Adaptation to flooding Exposure to flooding. The Government and local authorities should ensure more robust and transparent implementation of planning policy in relation to development in areas at risk of flooding. Protecting existing properties from flooding. The Government should support sustained and increased investment in flood defences from public or private sources; or in the absence of this identify ways to manage the social and economic consequences of more frequent flooding.

22. After Tompkins et al 2005 Share best practice Regulate management Raise public awareness through education Clarify responsibilities at local and national levels Improve monitoring and evidence base Plan for the longer term within risk framework Join up thinking: integrated management Incentivise management to reduce the risk Enabling adaptation

23. We are aiming for 4°C and planning for 2 °C Adaptation is currently generally viewed as the means of continuing what we are doing Concerned with climate proofing existing practices in which the objectives remain unchanged The need for transformational as opposed to continuous change is largely unaddressed There is a real danger of maladaptation – What is appropriate for a 2 °C may be inappropriate (and costly) for a 4 °C world – Incremental adaptation may prevent more transformative measures Aim for 2°C and plan for 4 °C What are we adapting to?

24. Summary Climate change and impacts Mitigation Adaptation