Towards real-time Space Weather forecasts using CMIT: Geomagnetic variations and regional K indexes George Millward …with help from: Michael Gehmeyr (LASP),

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Presentation transcript:

Towards real-time Space Weather forecasts using CMIT: Geomagnetic variations and regional K indexes George Millward …with help from: Michael Gehmeyr (LASP), Mike Wiltberger, Wenbin Wang, Pete Schmitt, Art Richmond, Astrid Maute (HAO) ….and: Terry Onsager, Howard Singer, Chris Balch (SWPC)

LFM TIE-GCM Magnetosphere - Ionosphere Coupler Electric Potential Particle Precipitation Conductivities Winds CMIT: First principles, physics-based, 3D, time- dependent model. Consists of a coupling between the Lyon-Fedder-Mobarry MHD Magnetospheric model(LFM) and the NCAR Thermosphere Ionosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIE-GCM) Present: Medium resolution mode. Running on “Bluesky”: NCAR IBM Cluster proc (OpenMP) Future: High resolution fast-mode (MPI). Next generation multi-processor computing resources Real-time Solar Wind Data at L1 CISM Knowledge Transfer: Transitioning CMIT for Real-Time Forecasting Space-Weather Forecast (SWPC) Current Geospace Conditions Coupled Magnetosphere Ionosphere Thermosphere model (CMIT 2.0) Initial: Real-time solar wind data from the ACE spacecraft. Lead time: about 1 hour Future: Solar wind model driven by solar observations Lead-time: 3 to 5 days Real-time Inputs Solar Wind Model Output Products, User Benefits Initial: 1 hour forecast of geomagnetic activity, global ionospheric electron content, magnetopause location Users: Power utilities, Satellite operators, communication, precision GPS Future: 3 day forecast using solar model and observations. Sun Earth

CMIT 2.5 development on NOAA wJET computer wJET: LINUX Cluster (1400 cores) Utilizes Intel compilers Supports parallel processing via MPI (Not OpenMP) LFM and LFM-MIX running in parallel on wJET Tiegcm v 1.9 running on wJET CMIT 2.5 (LFM MPI - TIEGCM1.9) on wJET 98% built

LFM TIE-GCM Magnetosphere - Ionosphere Coupler Electric Potential Particle Precipitation Conductivities Winds Real-time Solar Wind Data at L1 Space-Weather Forecast (SWPC) Current Geospace Conditions

LFM TIE-GCM Magnetosphere - Ionosphere Coupler Electric Potential Particle Precipitation Conductivities Winds Real-time Solar Wind Data at L1 Space-Weather Forecast (SWPC) Current Geospace Conditions “in house” (NOAA SWPC)

Real-time Solar Wind Data at L1

LFM TIE-GCM Magnetosphere - Ionosphere Coupler Electric Potential Particle Precipitation Conductivities Winds

Outputs/Products Current Geospace Conditions

April 2006 Magnetic Storm 2nd 20th April

April 2006: Magnetometer data

April 2006: CMIT model output

JNJN JEJE J Horizontal

Summary / Comments: Exciting initial results: CMIT clearly responding well during storm conditions: Some problems. Future: Running CMIT 2.5 on NOAA wJET (soon !!) Further runs needed for calibration/tuning Inclusion of magnetospheric currents (LFM/RCM)