1. Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) NCEP PSR 2015 George Millward

2. Space Weather Impacts Human Spaceflight Increased radiation risk Power Grid Operations Grid failure, Grid capacity, Component Failure, GPS Timing Impacts from space weather are wide-ranging with potentially significant consequences. GPS Precision Agriculture, Surveying, Drilling, Military Satellite Operations Aircraft Operations, Airline Communication

3. Operational System Attribute(s) System NameAcronymAreal CoverageHorz Res Cycle Freq Fcst Length (hr) Wang-Sheeley-Arge EnlilWSA-EnlilSun to Earth2 hr72 hr Space Weather Modeling Framework (operational in Oct 2015) SWMF - Geospace Magnetosphere1 min0.5 hr Whole Atmosphere Model (extended GFS) (operational in 2018) WAMGlobal up to 600 km alt 200 km 1-3 hr120 hr Ionosphere Plasmasphere Electrodynamics ModelIPEGlobal 100 – 1000 km alt 5 min72 hr SystemAttributes WSA-EnlilNo DA SWMF GeospaceNo DA WDASGDAS + middle atmosphere data between 60 and 100 km IDASIonosphere/thermosphere data assimilation (100 – 600 km) currently under development System Data Assimilation or Initialization Technique

4. 1.Forecasting CME arrival at Earth – WSA-Enlil, in operations at NWS since 2012 2.Regional Geomagnetic Activity Forecasts – Transitioning SWMF Geospace Model into operations at NCEP (operational in 2016) 3.Ionosphere/Upper Atmosphere: GPS, Communications, Satellite Drag - Whole Atmosphere Modeling

5. 1.Forecasting CME arrival at Earth – WSA-Enlil, in operations at NWS since 2012 Developments of the WSA-Enlil system planned for 2016: Improved background model (WSA) Air Force Data Assimilative Photospheric Flux Transport Model (ADAPT) - Air Force Research Lab (AFRL) Dynamically updating model (dynamic background – ADAPT, dynamic Enlil) – implies completely new CONOPS. SWPC hire for 2016 primarily to work on this.

6. GEOSPACE (SWMF) Model Transition Evaluation of several Geospace models by NASA/CCMC and SWPC concluded that SWMF (UMich) most suitable for transition to operations (Final report: 8/2013) Development work for operations between UMich and SWPC – 2014/15 Initial operational system handed to PMB SPAs by October 1, 2015 (NWS milestone) Formal 30 day evaluation to be completed by 3/1/2016 Operational implementation on WCOSS by 3/31/2016 FY16 - SWPC working on forecast products (for both Space Weather Forecast Office and public) and forecaster training FY17 - Geospace Model Upgrades for physics and numerical improvements

7. Ground Induced Currents (GICs) resulting from Solar Wind-Magnetosphere interaction GEOSPACE

8. Satellite measurements of Solar Wind Forecast of Geomagnetic activity: single value for the whole planet Simple empirical relationships CURRENT CAPABILITY PROPOSED SYSTEM Satellite measurements of Solar Wind Sophisticated 3D model of Solar Wind-Magnetosphere running on WCOSS Forecast of Geomagnetic activity as a global map

9. Example GEOSPACE Test Product: Regional Geomagntic activity [K / LT]

10. Whole Atmosphere Modeling From the Ground to Space Motivation: – There is a strong need for improving forecasts of the upper atmosphere and ionosphere Structures in the ionosphere affect radio signals and modify radio transmission paths or block transmission altogether – Changes in Total Electron Content (TEC) impact GPS radio navigation – Ionospheric irregularities impact satellite communication. Neutral density changes affect satellite orbits (drag) – The lower atmosphere imposes a lot of day-to-day variability on the Ionosphere/Thermosphere system Planetary waves, gravity waves, tides, etc… propagate upward to the thermosphere. Sudden Stratospheric Warmings change the global structure The lower atmosphere modulates the density of the upper atmosphere and deposits energy and heat in region above 100 km.

11. JULIA radar observations (Hysell & Burcham, 1998) Many low- and mid-latitude ionospheric structures are driven from below Ionospheric Structures Stimulated by Tropospheric Phenomena Return Signal Strength

12. Thermosphere Mesosphere Global Forecast Systems Model 0 – 60 km Whole Atmosphere Model (Neutral Atmosphere) 0 – 600 km Ionosphere Plasmasphere Electrodynamics Model Model Development in the Thermosphere-Ionosphere: Integrated Dynamics in Earth’s Atmosphere (IDEA) Whole Atmosphere Model (WAM = Extended GFS) Ionosphere Plasmasphere Electrodynamics (IPE) Integrated Dynamics in Earth’s Atmosphere (IDEA = WAM+IPE) Whole Atmosphere Model Stratosphere Troposphere WAM follows a latitude longitude pressure grid system IPE grid follows the magnetic field lines of Earth 2015 February 10 Space Weather Drivers Solar EUV/X-ray Irradiance Geomagnetic Storms

13. What are the biggest challenges your region/center faces? Requirements that are not yet satisfied by the current state of knowledge (Flare Forecasting, Proton Predictions, Bz, etc...) Our computer resources on the development systems is inadequate. We have not yet been given a permanent allocation on Thiea. Does the current production suite and products adequately help you address those challenges? It is a start, but space weather modeling needs and requirements will grow and expand rapidly in the next 3-5 years. We will need significantly more resources on both the operational and development systems. 2012 - 2 cores (Enlil) 2016 - 8 cores (+ SWMF) 2018 – 46 cores ( + WAM) ……. What do you need in terms of models or products to meet your challenges in the next 1-2 years? We need help and support from EMC to implement improvements on the GFS model that will help the WAM model development activities. These include extending GDAS and GFS up to 100 km, implementing semi-Lagrangian and non-hydrostatic core, and implementing new gravity wave physics currently under development. Geospace: DEV access to ECFLOW on WCOSS would aid the development process. What do you envision your model/product needs to be in the longer term? Space weather modeling needs are currently at their infancy. We are about to introduce the next model (Geospace) and then in 2-4 years, the next major model (WAM/IPE). Each of these models will be larger and more complex than the last. We need significant computational resources to achieve these objectives.