12/4/2015 National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda 1 SYSTEM OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS IMPLEMENTATION OF 2008 SNA

12/4/2015 National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda 2 Outline 1.Introduction and Background 2.Evolution of the SNA’s purview 3.SNA The 2008 SNA: Update of the Milestones for the implementation of 2008 SNA 5.Problems/Issues to be addressed 6.Towards the 2008 SNA 7.RWANDA National Accounts Current Situation Plans for improvement

Introduction and Background  To implement the 2008 SNA (for the period) is considered as the first pillar of the “Strategy for the Harmonization of Statistics in Africa”  To meet the needs and Africa’s integration agenda of Heads of State and Government of the African Union  The 2008 System of National Accounts (SNA 2008) should be fully implemented, in support of producing quality and comparable statistics for Africa. 12/4/2015 National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda 3

Evolution of the SNA’s purview  1953 SNA: Simple set of tables and accounts in current prices  1968 SNA: Extended accounting system, including  input-output tables  General principals on prices and volumes and  Financial accounts  1993 SNA: More detailed accounting structure  SUT, Satellite accounts, chaining and index formulae  2008 SNA: More detailed presentation of topics  Government accounts  Informal sector and capital services 12/4/2015 National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda 4

SNA The 2008 SNA: Update of the 1993  The update started with groups of experts considering new developments or problem areas over the previous decade.  The decision was taken just to update the 1993 SNA,  not to revise it, as the manual was still contemporary.  Compared with the six “milestones” adopted by the UN Statistical Commission, which represent the six phases for full implementation of the SNA, one fifth of the total African countries (20%) have reached only to Phase 1 12/4/2015 National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda 5

Milestones for the implementation of 2008 SNA  Pre-SNA Phases: Basic data:  BOP,  Monetary stock statistics,  Price indices  Phase 1: Basic indicators of GDP at CP and KP  Supply and Use Table (GDP by Expenditure, GDP by industry),  Other BOP transactions (income transfers, capital and financial),  GFS transaction accounts  Phase 2: GNI and other primary indicators:  External account of primary income and current transfers,  Capital and financial accounts for the rest of the world 12/4/2015 National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda 6

Milestones for the 2008 SNA (Cont)  Phase 3: Institutional sector accounts (first step):  Production accounts for all institutional sectors,  Generation of income,  Allocation of primary income  Secondary distribution income  Use of incomes and Cap. and fin. accounts for gen. Gvt  Phase 4-5: Institutional sector accounts  Capital and Financial accounts for all institutional sectors  Phase 6: Other flows, accounts and balance sheets  Other changes in assets accounts for all institutional sectors 12/4/2015 National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda 7

Problems/Issues to be addressed There are many challenges confronting the compilation of national accounts statistics in Africa  Inconsistency and Incompleteness in the Coverage of the Economy  inclusion of the informal sector in the National Accounts  Lack of resources and weak capacity to carry out household and business surveys and censuses for data collection to meet the minimum requirement datasets for National Accounts 12/4/2015 National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda 8

Problems/Issues to be addressed There are many challenges confronting the compilation of national accounts statistics in Africa  Inconsistency and Incompleteness in the Coverage of the Economy  inclusion of the informal sector in the National Accounts  Lack of resources and weak capacity to carry out household and business surveys and censuses for data collection to meet the minimum requirement datasets for National Accounts 12/4/2015 National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda 9

Towards the 2008 SNA  A continent wide “study on the impact of the implementation of the 2008 SNA in African countries’ will be conducted by AfDB  Objectives of the study are:  Evaluate the capacities to implement the 2008 SNA.  Identify the required technical assistance in national accounts for the 2008 SNA implementation  Show possible differences in some core aggregates compiled according to the 1993 SNA and the 2008 SNA  Rwanda is among the candidates for the pilot study 12/4/2015 National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda 10

RWANDA National Accounts: Current Situation  GDP by economic activity, i.e. GDP(P), are compiled on a quarterly and annual basis.  Some components of GDP(E) are compiled on an annual basis.  The difference between the sum of these components and total GDP(P) is reported as private consumption.  Separate estimates for household final consumption expenditure, consumption of non-profit institutions serving households, and changes in inventories are not compiled.

Current Situation (continued)  The quarterly GDP(P) estimates are based on extrapolating 2006 benchmarks using various indicators.  Annual estimates are derived by summing the quarterly estimates.  The main sources for the indicators are: banking data, balance of payments, CPI, crop assessments, government finance data, population projections, PPI and trade data.  The NISR is committed to improving the GDP estimates and to expanding the range of NAS aggregates.  A number of improvements are being planned.

Plans for Improvement (Short-Term)  During 2011:  Increasing access to, and/or use of, existing administrative source data (e.g. RARDA, RRA, RURA);  Increasing use of existing NISR survey data (e.g. Pop. Census 2002, EICV2, NAS 2008);  Replacing use of population indicators with more representative indicators (e.g. composite indicators, housing trends).

Plans for Improvement (Longer- Term)  During 2012 to 2014:  Finalizing results of EICV3;  Conducting benchmark agriculture, enterprise and NGO surveys, and Pop. Census;  Developing detailed benchmarks based on Input- Output Tables (IOT) and Supply/Use Tables (SUT);  Rebase of GDP to 2011 base year;  Improved use of administrative data (e.g. income tax);  Expanding and improving annual and sub-annual data collections (e.g. for Agriculture, PPI); and  Redeveloping the NAS compilation methodology

Rebase Plan of Action (1)  An initial assessment of:  Key data user requirements;  Economic activities and products to be included in the IOT and SUT;  Source data availability and quality;  Data gaps identified and recommendations;  Accessing available data and undertaking additional data collection to ensure appropriate coverage. (June 2012)

Rebase Plan of Action (2)  Data quality assurance and compilation of the initial estimates from administrative sources and surveys. (July 2012)  Classification, coverage, timing and valuation (i.e. price and/or volume) adjustments made to the initial estimates to accord with FY (August 2012)  Filling in the Input-Output and SUT cells and fine tuning of the estimates to the overall size of the different activities. (September 2012)

Rebase Plan of Action (3)  Balancing of the supply and use estimates, using supplementary information on the relative quality of the data sources used, similar adjustments made to the 2006 SUT, and from data suppliers and industry experts. (October 2012)  Compilation of symmetric tables and coefficient matrices (i.e. benchmarks). (November 2012)  Redevelopment of NAS compilation systems. (December 2012)

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