Migration, ageing and labour markets: A sub-national perspective Tony Champion Emeritus Professor of Population Geography, Newcastle University Paper presented at TWRI P&R Conference on ‘Labour Market Perspectives: Challenges, Statistics and Future Possibilities’, at York, 9 th October 2015

Introduction: An LMA perspective I set this talk in a Labour Market Accounts (LMA) framework, focussing on the labour-supply side (selected components*) and on regional and local scales * Key components of change in labour-supply side are: - Natural change in the population especially AGEING - Change in labour-force participation rates by age/sex/etc - Change in commuting patterns - Population change due to INTERNAL MIGRATION - Population change due to INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION I concentrate on the ones in CAPITALS, as in my paper title My aim is to illustrate some key dimensions of these by reference to existing analyses and point to the possibilities for better labour-market intelligence in the future

Ageing – but not just a single story It is well-known that the UK population is ageing (‘Mr Average turns 40’, Daily Telegraph, 26 June 2015), but the implications for labour supply are more complicated Labour-force ageing results from this general increase in the % of older people (even more so if LF participation rates of older people rise) Labour-force ageing has also been rising due to later entry into the labour market (owing to higher HE participation) and more women staying in the LF during family raising BUT some forces are driving down average labour-force age: - the retirement of the 1960s baby-boom generation - strong immigration since 1997 (mainly in their 20s-30s) - recovery of births in 1980s and especially in 2000s

Overall ageing, as reflected in alternative elderly dependency ratios for North East England, Source: calculated from ONS’s 2012-based population projections

Increases in 70+ population share in all regions and decreases for other broad ages (except for London) Source: calculated from ONS’s 2012-based population projections

More growth of younger than older working age for England, , with North East seeing big shrinkage of 40-64s Source: calculated from ONS’s 2012-based population projections

Main cause nationally is ‘retirement’ of 1960s baby-boomers in 2020s, but NE also affected by loss of young adults Source: ONS births and deaths data

Internal migration Traditionally, two primary dimensions of North-to-South and Urban-to-Rural, posing ‘double whammy’ for Urban North, but now less strong - this not just due to the Great Recession Clear ‘urban renaissance’ in the 2000s, most pronounced for London (where it began in 1990s), driven by combination of rising births, strong UK immigration and slower urban exodus But hardly any let-up in the differential between London (and Bristol) relative to the other Core Cities, especially in terms of the ‘escalator region’ phenomenon The regions and their cities lose their more qualified youngsters to London and the SE, where career progress is faster – though a proportion return later in their lives Their less qualified seem less likely to move south – due to moving and living costs, welfare support, social ties? Even more now due to competition from immigrant labour?

North-South Drift fluctuates with business cycle, but since 1980s progressively lower average losses from North Source: ONS data on within-UK migration from NHSCR

The ‘counter-urbanisation’ pattern of internal migration continues, though shrinking markedly in Source: ONS components of population change data for districts

‘Urban renaissance’ is found in both North and South and across all 3 city size groups - from 2001 (London from 1991) Source: calculated from ONS population estimates for 56 cities as defined in The State of the English Cities Report

% of White Collar Non-core becoming White Collar Core each decade: London cf 9 Other City Regions cf Rest of E&W Source: Calculated from ONS Longitudinal Study. Crown copyright.

16-24s urbanise, other ages counter-urbanise, with London being a huge gainer of 20-24s (including graduates) Source: Calculated from 2001 Census

London has the highest net gain rate of Higher Managerial & Professionals, North East the highest net loss rate Source: Calculated from 2001 Census

London has highest in/out ratio for Higher Managerial & Professionals, lowest for Low-skill, unlike other cities Source: Calculated from 2001 Census

International migration Now a major component of labour supply change regionally and locally as well as nationally, because of high volume and uneven geography Three main periods of strong net immigration (following a history of net emigration): 1950s/60s (labour recruitment), late-1980s (refugees etc), post-1997 and continuing Gross immigration is much larger than net: in 2014, net was 318,000, with 323,000 emigrating and 641,000 arriving, of whom 83,000 British citizens = 558,000 non-British entries Labour force impact is very direct and immediate, as most immigrants arrive in their 20s and 30s (with work restrictions on only certain categories of arrivals) For most immigrant groups, the main destinations are now London and other large cities (cf industrial towns in 1960s) – only A8 after 2004 had wider distribution (e.g. farmworking)

Estimated and assumed total net migration for UK, for year ending mid-1994 to year ending mid-2023 Source: ONS (2013) 2012-based National Population Projections: 5. Migration assumptions, Figure 5-4 (and ONS Quarterly Migration Report August 2015) * 330k in yr to 3/15

In more A8 ‘arrivals’ in smaller TTWAs than for All foreign, fewer to London (but still 50% more than ‘expected’) Source: calculated from DWP data on NINO registrations

2011 Census showed that non-UK-born made up 42.5% of London’s economically active residents cf NE’s 5.6% Source: calculated from 2011 Census

Over the decade since 2004 the number of 16-64s in work increased for non-UK-born in all regions cf UK-born Source: APS data extracted from NOMIS by Alan Townsend

Steady growth in non-UK-born share of 16-64s in work, , in all parts of UK (doubled in Scotland) Source: APS data extracted from NOMIS by Alan Townsend

Steady growth in non-UK-born share of 16-64s in work, , for 10 cities (City Region definition) Source: APS data extracted from NOMIS by Alan Townsend

Migration summary: urbanisation pattern for international, counter-urbanisation for internal – big turnover for London Source: calculated for from ONS data for 64 cities as defined in The State of the English Cities Report

Concluding points A Labour Market Accounts approach emphasising the demographic (natural change and migration, but not EAR) An ageing population, but the traditional working-age span is getting younger now due to retirements and immigration Fading of traditional north-south and urban-rural migration, but latter is reviving during economic recovery London’s role as national pivot of migration has become more pronounced, though not for less skilled natives Replacement of UK-born by non-UK-born labour supply across the UK, with shrinkage of UK-born in most ‘regions’ Rising birth numbers (partly due to immigration) reinforces this process – post-1997 children now entering LM But immigration would need to be higher still to offset the ageing trend because immigrants age too

Migration, ageing and labour markets: A sub-national perspective Tony Champion