© CCSR Rising On-Track Rates and the Solution to the Dropout Crisis Melissa Roderick and Thomas Kelley-Kemple with Courtney Thompson & Nicole Beechum Confidential draft – Not for circulation

© CCSR  Will increases in 9 th grade on-track pay off in higher graduation rates A close look at 3 early mover schools Summary look at 23 secondary and tertiary movers.  How does changing on-track change the pathway to graduation Today

© CCSR What is On-Track?  A student is on track if, by the end of freshman year, they have accumulated at least 5 credits and failed no more than one semester of a core class

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On-Track is highly predictive of high school graduation

© CCSR On-Track Predicts Graduation better than other factors Background, eighth grade information can correctly predict only 65% of graduates On-track correctly predicts 80% of graduates Combining the two, pre-high school test scores and characteristics with 9 th grade on- track status, correctly predicts 81% of high school graduates

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On-track rates improved when schools had tools that made it easy to use validated indicators On track in CPS accountability system What matters report Student tracking systems and school data reports District On- Track Rates Confidential draft – Not for circulation

© CCSR On-track improvements occurred system wide High schools with 75% of more 9 th graders on track 14 in in Diff African-American Female Male 62.7% 46.1% 75.4% 63.0% Latino Female Male 66.6% 52.1% 80.6% 69.9% White Female Male 78.9% 67.3% 89.7% 81.0% On track increased among all racial/ethnic groups with significant improvement for males Confidential draft – Not for circulation

© CCSR The Big Question: Will the increase in freshman on- track rates translate into increases in graduation rates? DRAFT: DO NOT CITE

© CCSR Will Chicago’s approach to on track payoff?— what happens when we move the line

© CCSR Hypothesis 1: Yes, because it attacks 9 th grade course failure, which: Puts students immediately in a catch-up position for credits Sends a strong message and undermines positive academic mindsets –students’ beliefs about themselves –sense of belonging –feelings of value, and sense of efficacy Is misused and misinterpreted by adults as lack of student motivation

© CCSR Hypothesis 2: No, because fixing on- track doesn’t fix the root problems of: Selection: On-track is distinguishing between students who will and will not graduate. Grade inflation: Focusing on on-track will just make teachers turn Fs into Ds If these are true, getting students on track just delays the problem for a year

© CCSR We define movement as 10+ percentage point gain in 9 th grade on-track sustained over 2+ years ‘Early movers’ – 3 schools, starting in 2007; follow all the way through high school graduation in 2011 Secondary Mover cohorts – 13 schools; students completed 11 th grade in 2011 Tertiary Movers – 11 schools; students completed 10 th grade in 2011 Examining the effect of increasing on-track rates on three cohorts Confidential draft – Not for circulation

© CCSR IndicatorDefinitionProbability of Graduating for the cohort of 2002 On-Track in 9 th grade5 or more credits earned and less than 1 core semester failure 72% On-Track in 10 th grade11 or more credits and less than 2 semester failures 83% On-Track in 11 th grade17 or more credits88% Graduation Still enrolled19+ credits (likely grad) < 19 credits (likely non- completion) We will be looking at 4 outcomes in both pre and post cohorts

© CCSR Kenwood Academy: 2007 entering 9 th grade cohort compared to Baseline Cohorts Increases in On-track in 9 th grade persists as those cohorts move through high school

© CCSR What happens when On-Track Rates increase at Kenwood? For every 1 student we shift from Off- Track to On-Track,.56 more students graduate (82%-26%=.56) As a result, with an increase of 14 out of 100 students into Freshman On- Track, we would expect for 8 more students to graduate from that cohort, if these relationships remain the same Confidential draft – Not for circulation

© CCSR Kenwood Academy: 2007 entering 9 th grade cohort compared to Baseline Cohorts Increases in On-track in 9 th grade persists as those cohorts move through high school Confidential draft – Not for circulation

© CCSR Different Patterns Kenwood is an example of an increase in 9 th grade on-track sustained over time Juarez shows a different pattern – an sustained increase in 9 th grade on-track plus ‘recovery’ in 11 th grade Confidential draft – Not for circulation

© CCSR Juarez High School: The 2007 entering 9 th grade cohort experienced higher on track rates in 9 th grade and significantly higher on track rates in 11 th grade Increases in On-track in 9 th grade persists as those cohorts move through high school Confidential draft – Not for circulation

© CCSR Secondary and Tertiary Movers The same pattern of effects holds in 13 high schools that saw substantial increases in 9 th grade on-track in 2009 The same pattern appears again among an additional 11 high schools that made substantial increases in 9 th grade on-track in 2010 Confidential draft – Not for circulation

Three groups of High Schools Early Movers (3 Schools) Difference On track 9th On track 10 th > 17 credits 11 th Graduation Secondary Movers (13 Schools) Difference On track 9th On track 10 th > 17 credits 11 th Graduation Tertiary Movers (11 Schools) Difference On track 9th On track 10 th > 17 credits 11 th Graduation Confidential draft – Not for circulation

© CCSR In the forthcoming report … The effects of increases in 9 th grade on- track on high school graduation –Effects by subgroups (incl. race & gender) Effects of increases in 9 th grade on-track on achievement test scores Illustrations of pathways linking increases in 9 th grade on-track rates to high school graduation Confidential draft – Not for circulation

© CCSR Average GPAs for students at Kenwood Confidential draft – Not for circulation

© CCSR Number of Core Fs for students at Kenwood Confidential draft – Not for circulation