1. Using Data Systems to Drive School Improvement NCES Summer Data Conference John Q. Easton July 29, 2009

2. Looking ahead at IES Researchers work in partnership with practitioners and policy makers Study schools and districts as complex organisms – learn more about how they improve Support local research, evaluation, and data analysis

3. Three examples from my experience in Chicago

4. On-Track: The indicator that changed the freshman year in Chicago and in other districts Long time belief that freshman year was “make- or-break” experience for many students Documented over time as evidence accumulated

5. Being “on-track” in the ninth grade indicates who will graduate Source: Consortium on Chicago School Research

6. On-track more predictive than incoming scores

7. Freshman year grades & failures can precisely identify students’ risk of not graduating Source: Consortium on Chicago School Research

8. Each week of absence in ninth grade is associated with a dramatically reduced likelihood of graduating Source: Consortium on Chicago School Research

10. From an indicator to school-based “on-track labs” Added to accountability system 2-page handouts mailed to incoming freshman System-wide warning lists created On-track labs created at six High Schools with staff hired to track data, intervene with struggling students, and track progress

11. Path to 20: How to get more students achieving this goal School districts sets goal to increase number of students who reach 20 on the ACT

12. About one-quarter of CPS juniors score 20 or above on the ACT Source: Consortium on Chicago School Research

13. CPS students see much smaller improvements from PLAN to ACT than students nationally Source: Consortium on Chicago School Research

14. Students who earn high grades and attend strong schools see the biggest gains Source: Consortium on Chicago School Research

16. How did this data analysis change policy and school practice? School leaders in Chicago and downstate start pushing more schools to “exceeds” State joins America Diploma Project State re-thinking standards and tests

17. District Goal: Increase college enrollment and college graduation

19. .56*.50*.68.45*= Graduated from CPS high school Enrolled in college Enrolled in four year college Graduated from four year college (statistic from earlier cohort) CPS Class of 2007

20. = 8.6% (estimate)

21. Low Hanging Fruit? Increase High School Graduation Rates –Improve attendance and reduce failures Increase 4-Year College Enrollment Rates –Improve academic qualifications and support for college application process (FAFSA etc.) Increase 4-Year College Graduation Rates –Improve match/fit between students and colleges

22. How did Chicago Public Schools respond to research findings? Postsecondary Office collaborated in research efforts New FAFSA tracking system created; CEO sends school-by-school progress reports Encouraging students to apply to more competitive colleges

23. This kind of work is happening in states and local school districts all over the country Western Heights, Oklahoma Oregon Minnesota Denver, Colorado

24. Data and data analysis are powerful tools for improving schools Identify problems Suggest solutions Monitor progress Underpin in-depth research

25. References The On-Track Indicator as a Predictor of High School Graduation (2005) Consortium on Chicago School Research. What Matters for Staying On-Track and Graduating from Chicago Public Schools (2007) Consortium on Chicago School Research. From High School to the Future: The Pathway to 20 (2008) Consortium on Chicago School Research. From High School to the Future: A First Look at Chicago Public School Graduates' College Enrollment, College Preparation, and Graduation from Four-Year Colleges (2006) Consortium on Chicago School Research.