TURNING 2011’S DISASTERS INTO EDUCATIONAL SURGES THAT WILL ADVANCE DISASTER RESILIENCE PART 5 Dr. Walter Hays, Global Alliance For Disaster Reduction.

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More lectures at Disasters Supercourse -

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More lectures at Disasters Supercourse -

Presentation transcript:

TURNING 2011’S DISASTERS INTO EDUCATIONAL SURGES THAT WILL ADVANCE DISASTER RESILIENCE PART 5 Dr. Walter Hays, Global Alliance For Disaster Reduction

GOAL: COMMUNITY DISASTER RESILIENCE FLOODS SEVERE WIND STORMS EARTHQUAKES DROUGHTS LANDSLIDES WILDFIRES VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS TSUNAMIS GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE TECHNOLOGICAL HAZARDS INCREASE TECHNICAL AND POLITICL CAPACITY OF COMMUNITY TO COPE INCREASE OWNERSHIP AND USE OF KNOWLEDGE AND EXPERIENCE USE DISASTER’S INFO TO IMPROVE COMMUNITY RESILIENCE

NOTABLE DISASTERS IN 2011 FLOODS IN AUSTRALIA EARTHQUAKE/TSUNAMI IN JAPAN WILDFIRES IN FLORIDA, TEXAS, AND ARIZONA, ETC HURRICANE IRENE AND TROPIAL STORM LEE FLOODS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI River SUPER TORNADO OUTBREAK EXPERIENCE FOR CHANGE NEW KNOWLEDGE FOR MAKING COMMUNITIES DISASTER RESIILIENT VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS

2011’S KNOWLEDGE AND EXPERIENCE BASE INCLUDED TORNADOE OUTBREAKS IN THE USA FEBRUARY - MAY, 2011

UNDERSTANDING AND PREPARING FOR TORNADOES BASED ON 2011, WILL FUEL EDUCATIONAL SURGES THAT CAN MOVE COMMUNITIES TOWARDS DISASTER RESILIENCE

A DISASTER is the set of failures that overwhelm the capability of a community to respond without external help when three continuums: 1) people, 2) community (i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and social constructs), and 3) complex events (e.g., floods, earthquakes,...,) intersect at a point in space and time.

Disasters are caused by s ingle- or multiple-event natural hazards that, (for various reasons), caused extreme levels of mortality, morbidity, homelessness, joblessness, economic losses, or environmental impacts.

THE THREE CONTINUUMS OF EVERY DISASTER PEOPLE COMMUNITY COMPLEX EVENTS

A DISASTER IMPACTS ALL SOCIETAL ELEMENTS

AN EDUCATIONAL SURGE Transforms information and experience gained from a disaster into knowledge, best practices, and new tech- nology to help a stricken community become disaster resilient.

BUILDING CAPACITY FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE Identify the gaps in community capacity in the four critical elements of the solution: Preparedness, Protection, Response, and Recovery. Use the accumulated knowledge and experience base to fill the perceived gaps in Preparedness, Protection, Response, and Recovery in the community.

CRITICAL ELEMENTS FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE PREPAREDNESS (READY FOR ANY COMPLEX EVENT) PROTECTION (BUILD ESSENTIAL AND CRITICAL FACILITIES TO WITHSTAND) PREPAREDNESS (READY FOR ANY COMPLEX EVENT) PROTECTION (BUILD ESSENTIAL AND CRITICAL FACILITIES TO WITHSTAND)

CRITICAL ELEMENTS FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE RESPONSE (SAVING LIVES, AND ENSURING CONTINUITY) RECOVERY (BOUNCING BACK QUICKLY AND RESUMING LIFE AGAIN) RESPONSE (SAVING LIVES, AND ENSURING CONTINUITY) RECOVERY (BOUNCING BACK QUICKLY AND RESUMING LIFE AGAIN)

BENEFITS OF AN EDUCATIONAL SURGE Intensifies efforts to protect essential (schools) and critical facilities (hos- pitals, dams, transportation, systems, and power plants).

EDUCATIONAL SURGES CREATE TURNING POINTS FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL SECTORS OF SOCIETY INFORMED IGNORANCE TO ENLIGHTENMENT APATHY TO EMPOWERMENT BOUNDARIES TO NETWORKS STATUS QUO TO GOOD POLITICAL DECISIONS EDUCATIONAL SURGES CHANGE POLICIES BASED ON A COM- MUNITY’S RISK EDUCATIONAL SURGES CHANGE POLICIES BASED ON A COM- MUNITY’S RISK

TURNING POINTS FOR CHANGE NEW RESOURCES NEW DELIVERY MECHANISMS NEW PROFESSIONAL LINKAGES NEW LEGISLATIVE MANDATES NEW DIALOGUE ON BUILDING A CULTURE OF DISASTER- RISK REDUCTION EDUCATIONAL SURGES WILL RESULT IN …

EDUCATIONAL SURGE ADD VALUE INCREASE AWARENESS INCREASE UNDERSTANDING INCREASE POLITICAL WILL BUILD EQUITY AN EDUCATIONAL SURGE WILL

BENEFITS OF EDUCATIONAL SURGES EXPAND CAPABILITY IMPROVE DELIVERY MECHANISMS OVERCOME UNIVERSAL BARRIERS CREATE TURNING POINTS OF CHANGE INCREASE COMMUNITY DISASTER RESILIENCE EDUCATIONAL SURGES

TORNADOE SEASON The peak tornado season is late winter through midsummer,…. But, tornadoes happen any time of the year when the atmospheric conditions are right.

THE PHYSICS OF TORNADOES TORNADOES ARE CAUSED BY THE COLLISION OF DESCENDING COLD AIR MASSESS COMING FROM THE NORTH AND ASCENDING WARM AIR MASSES COMING FROM THE SOUTH.

PHYSICS OF A TORNADO

THE PHYSICS OF TORNADOES THE COLLISION CREATES A FUNNEL OF HIGH-VELOCITY WIND THAT IS VERY DESTRUCTIVE AS IT “TOUCHES DOWN” ONE OR MORE TIMES ALONG A LONG, NARROW (TYPICALLY M) PATH.

TORNADO ALLEY TORNADOES HAVE OCCURRED IN EVERY STATE, BUT THEY OCCUR MOST FREQUENTLY IN “TORNADO ALLEY,” WHICH INCLUDES PARTS OF: TEXAS, OKLAHOMA, ARKANSAS, TENNESSEE, NEBRASKA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, ILLINOIS, AND IOWA.

MAP OF TORNADO ALLEY

HAZARDS OF A TORNADO (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS) WIND: SPEEDS CAN REACH 500 KM/HR (300 MI/HR) THUNDER, LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION EXTREMES HAIL CAN ALSO BE VERY DAMAGING

2011’S TORNADOES

2011: MORE TORNADOES THAN IN 2010 JANUARY---10 FEBRUARY---67 MARCH APRIL---141

2011’S APRIL CAME CLOSE TO BECOMING THE WORST APRIL EVER FOR TORNADOES

During the past 30 years before 2011, the United States had averaged 135 tornadoes in April, the highest number being 266 in 1974 (National Climatic Data Center)

SEVERE DAMAGE IN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH CAROLINA HIGHLIGHT 3-DAY, 15- STATE TORNADO OUTBREAK 145 TORNADOES; 44 DEATHS THURSDAY, APRIL 14- SATURDAY, APRIL 16, 2011

During 2011, the combination of strengthening winds, daytime heating, and low-level moisture return along and ahead of the cold front created an environment favorable for the development of long-lived super cell thunderstorms capable of producing strong tornadoes.

SUCH WAS THE CASE ON APRIL 14-16, 2011

THE APRIL EXPERIENCE A SEVERE WEATHER SYSTEM THAT MOVED EAST ACROSS THE USA ON APRIL SPAWNED NEARLY 100 TORNADOES IN OK, AR, MS, AND AL, DAMAGING COMMUNITIES, AND KILLING 17 PEOPLE IN THREE DAYS.

THE CAUSATIVE STORM: APRIL 14, 2011

CHRONOLOGY FROM THE PACIFIC TO OKLAHOMA, TO ARKANSAS, TO MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA, TO NORTH CAROLINA, AND POINTS IN BETWEEN.

This storm system, which first developed over the Pacific, intensified when it got to the central Plains on Thursday where the dry western air collided with the warm humid air from the Gulf of Mexico.

From there, the storms developed as expected over Oklahoma, with double vortex funnel clouds in some cases.

Overnight, the storms merged into a fast-moving front crossing Arkansas and into the Mississippi River Valley, drawing fuel from daytime heating, before moving on into Mississippi and Alabama and the Appalachians on Saturday.

TUSHKA, OKLAHOMA DEVASTATED

TUSHKA: MOBILE HOME DESTROYED

TUSHKA, OKLAHOMA: CAR OVERTURNED; BUILDING DESTROYED

THE SEVERE WEATHER SYSTEM SPAWNED 5 TORNADOES IN OKLAHOMA: APRIL 14 TH AFTER A TORNADO LEFT A ½ MILE WIDE AND 7 MILE LONG PATH OF DESTRUCTION IN THE TOWN OF TUSHKA, OK, THE SYSTEM MOVED ON INTO ARKANSAS

IMPACTS IN ARKANSAS The same weather system also spawned tornadoes with 130 kph (80 mph) winds in Arkansas, killing seven..

IMPACTS IN ALABAMA The same weather system spawned tornadoes in six counties in Alabama Friday, causing at least eight deaths..

IMPACTS IN MISSISSIPPI Tornadoes spawned by the same system caused major damage in the town of Clinton, near Jackson, the capitol of Mississippi..

Then the storm strengthened again as a result of the daytime heat for a third day of tornadoes, hitting North Carolina hard.

COLERAIN, NORTH CAROLINA: DAMAGE

RAYLEIGH, NORTH CAROLINA: DOWNED TREE

RAYLEIGH, NORTH CAROLINA: DOWND POWER LINES

RAYLEIGH, NORTH CAROLINA: DEBRIS IN STREETS

SANFORD, NORTH CAROLINA: LOWES HOME IMPROVEMENT STORE

SANFORD, NORTH CAROLINA: DAMAGE TO LOWES

TOWARDS TORNADO DISASTER RESILIENCE IN YOUR COMMUNITY PREPAREDNESS PROTECTION RESPONSE RECOVERY

STRICKEN COMMUNITY DATA BASES AND INFORMATION HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS HAZARD MAPS INVENTORY VULNERABILITY LOCATION RISK ASSESSMENT RISK ACCEPTABLE RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK FOCUS ON FOUR CRITICAL AREAS BEST POLICIES AND PRACTICES FOR: PREPAREDNESS PROTECTION RESPONSE & RECOVERY DISASTER RESILIENCE

POLICY ADOPTION RISK ASSESSMENT VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY EXPOSUREEXPOSURE EVENTEVENT POLICY ASSESSMENT COSTCOST BENEFITBENEFIT CONSEQUENCESCONSEQUENCES TOWARDS WILDFIRE DISASTER RESILIENCE TORNADOESTORNADOES EXPECTED LOSS

WIND PENETRATING BUILDING ENVELOPE TORNADOES UPLIFT OF ROOF SYSTEM FLYING DEBRIS THUNDERSTORMS; HAIL NO WARNING NO EVACUATION INADEQUATE “SAFE ROOMS” CAUSES OF DAMAGE “DISASTER LABORATORIES”

EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR COPING WITH TORNADOES

EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR TORNADOES REAL TIME FORECASTS OF PATH AND IMPACTS SAFE ROOMS MEASUREMENT TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., DOPPLER RADAR, WIND SPEEDS) REAL TIME FORECASTS OF PATH AND IMPACTS SAFE ROOMS MEASUREMENT TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., DOPPLER RADAR, WIND SPEEDS) DATA BASES WIND ENGINEERING DISASTER SCENARIOS STORM CHASERS RISK MODELING (E.G., HAZUS, INSURANCE UNDERWRITING) DATA BASES WIND ENGINEERING DISASTER SCENARIOS STORM CHASERS RISK MODELING (E.G., HAZUS, INSURANCE UNDERWRITING)