TC Watch/Warning Group Update Michael Brennan and Daniel Brown National Hurricane Center 2009 NOAA Hurricane Conference Miami, Florida 2 Dec 2009 Storm Surge Warning

Background Team formed in August 2009 Grew out of agenda items from previous NOAA Hurricane Conferences – Unify terminology of inland and coastal hurricane and tropical storm wind warnings – Simplify issuance of VTEC codes for tropical cyclone related watches/warnings NCZ /O.CON.KNHC.TR.A T0000Z T0000Z/ 200 PM EDT FRI AUG CAPE-LOOKOUT-NC 34.60N 76.53W DUCK-NC 36.23N 75.77W GMZ LAZ >070-MSZ080> /O.CAN.KLIX.TR.W T0000Z T0000Z/ LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS- COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-TANGIPAHOA-ST. TAMMANY-ASCENSION- LIVINGSTON- ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST- UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-ORLEANS- UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE- LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE- LOWER JEFFERSON- LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-HANCOCK- HARRISON-JACKSON-

Team Members Tim Schott (OS21) Walt Zaleski (SRH) Harvey Thurm (ERH) Bill Sammler (AKQ) Rich Bandy (MHX) Gene Hafele (HGX) Steve Letro (JAX) Mike Brennan and Dan Brown (NHC)

Team Objectives 1.Define a unified terminology and process (including IT) for issuing watches and warnings associated with TC wind. 2.Coordinate with, and facilitate work by, the storm surge watch/warning team where interests coincide. 3.Address the WFOs’ desire for an event-ending time for NHC-led watches and warnings. 4.Increase WFOs’ flexibility in deciding which coastal zones will be included in each TCV while supporting NHC’s needs to accommodate national level customers, etc. 5.Unify, to the extent possible, the issuance product(s) for TC watches and warnings. Currently, TC watches/warnings for coastal zones are implemented in VTEC through the TCV. Inland TC watches/warnings and coastal marine zone TC watches/warnings are implemented in VTEC through the HLS. WFOs desire a single VTEC product for implementing all TC watches/warnings.

SPC/WFO Collaboration Build on convective watch collaborative process between SPC and WFOs – SPC defines broad outline of watch area – WFOs provide feedback to SPC about details of watch placement (inclusion or exclusion of counties near edge of SPC watch area)

Progress Made So Far NHC would issue internal product (TCL) outlining preliminary watch/warning areas TCV should be retained and expanded to include inland (and possibly marine) zones – TCV provides functionality of Watch/Warning Outline Update Message (WOU) used by convective program – TCV would be “national level” watch/warning product for national partners and vendors Unify terminology for Tropical Storm/Hurricane Watch/Warning for coastal and inland zones – Retire HI and TI VTEC codes – Depending on progress of NWS storm surge team, team felt best time to do this would be concurrent with implementation of storm surge warning

Potential Issues Desire by WFOs to have an expiration time on all watches and warnings Determination of who has final say when there is disagreement between a WFO and NHC or between WFOs Developing technological tools to ensure efficient collaboration process Mechanism for issuance of watches for systems that have not yet become a TC

Potential Issues Mechanics of collaboration between NHC and as many as WFOs – Typical SPC watch collaboration is with 4 WFOs Hurricane Hotline is not available to all potentially affected WFOs – Collaboration will likely have to occur outside Hotline framework NHC will look into possibility of releasing preliminary wind speed probabilities to WFOs for the collaboration process

VTEC “Event End Time” - Uses USE USE - Provides data users (media, emergency responders, officials, public, etc.) projected cessation of tropical cyclone event/impacts. – Example:090713T2100Z (VTEC Event End Time) YEAR09 MONTH07 DAY13 TIME (UTC)2100Z In the above example, tropical cyclone conditions were projected to end by 21Z on July 13, 2009.

VTEC “Event End Time” - Uses Dissemination Dissemination – VTEC “Event End Time” aids in the automated delivery and depiction of tropical cyclone events/impacts. – Critical information may be scrolled, graphically depicted /deleted automatically. – Removes human intervention/judgment from dissemination/receipt process. Event Duration Event Duration – Allows users to project duration of tropical cyclone impacts in order to better prepare for the protection of life and property. Planning Planning – Helps officials better assess, plan and project extent of economic and infrastructure loss/disruptions due to duration of tropical cyclone event/impacts. Response Response – Helps officials determine when to safely deploy disaster response resources and restore critical infrastructure in a timely and effective manner.

Technological Requirements NHC needs access to GFE that will allow for collaboration over a wide domain – NHC would identify preliminary watch and warning zones and send to WFOs via Inter-site Coordination (ISC) grids Will probably be at least 3 seasons (2012) before new tools can be brought into AWIPS II OS21 will initiate an OSIP project for a long term plan for creating a collaborative software tool for the issuance of all TC watches and warnings for coastal and inland zones