Part 2 -DATA

Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, 2015 I 2 Scientific Method requires us to consider, and reason through, appropriate data sources and strategies.

Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, 2015 I 3 For Example, which data? Let’s start with the Relationship between: Dose Exposure Intensity Dose = Intensity x Exposure

Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, 2015 I 4 How high the sun is in the sky relates to Intensity. How long you stay in the sun relates to Exposure. Whether or not you get sunburn depends on your Dose: Dose = Intensity X Exposure Image courtesy of vectorolie at FreeDigitalPhotos.net

Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, 2015 I 5 VMT - The more miles you travel, the more exposure to the danger Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) is an Exposure Measure The more you are exposed to a danger, the more likely you are to get hurt VMT is the best available exposure measure for our work

Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, 2015 I 6 We are growing more confident in the reliability of VMT data because The vehicle miles traveled tax is a road user mileage-based fee. The VMT tax will be based on the type of vehicle and on how many miles the vehicle has traveled. of the Vehicle Miles Traveled TAX. They are "sharpening the pencils" on VMT now!

Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, 2015 I 7 After careful considerations, we choose these Data Sets: Population (Pop) Driver Fatality Counts (DF) All Fatalities In Collisions Counts (AF) Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT)

Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, 2015 I 8 FARS: Fatality Analysis Reporting System When there is a fatal crash, a crash report is generated and submitted to FARS. It is difficult to be killed in a crash and not be counted. We have a high confidence in the veracity of the count of fatalities reported in crashes.

Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, 2015 I 9 We define the “driver” as the person, carried within or upon a vehicle, who is operating or controlling the vehicle.

Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, 2015 I 10 We can look at subgroups of drivers, such as motorcycle drivers, or passenger vehicle drivers.

Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, 2015 I 11 TMDF = Total Motorcycle Driver Fatalities TPVDF = Total Passenger Vehicle Driver Fatalities Now we can count Driver Fatalities

Licensed Drivers Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, 2015 I 12 We can subdivide the driver fatality counts into smaller categories, such as Helmeted and Licensed, etc. Helmeted Drivers

Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, 2015 I 13 We model the danger of driving a MotorCycle with: Measuring Driver Danger Total Motorcycle Driver Fatalities (TMDF) = Vehicle Miles Traveled, Motorcycle (VMT(MC))

Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, 2015 I 14 We model the danger of driving a Passenger Vehicle with: Passenger Vehicle Driver Danger Total Passenger Vehicle Driver Fatalities (TPVDF) = Vehicle Miles Traveled, Passenger Vehicle (VMT(PV))

Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, 2015 I 15 The relative driver danger can be calculated from the ratio of the these two rates

Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, 2015 I 16 MotorcyclePassenger Vehicle Relative Danger Average In Our Model, Driving a Motorcycle is 27 times more dangerous than driving a Passenger Vehicle, mile for mile. We average the most recent four years so as to provide enough data points to smooth out random fluctuations. (Most current FARS data is 2013) However, four years is not so long of a period that it washes out the current trend. (2014 data available Dec 2015.) Driver Fatalities per Billion Miles Traveled

Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, 2015 I 17 Driver Data and VMT Data is useful for Driver Danger. This leads us to looking at: All Fatality Data and Population But what about Danger to Society?

Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, 2015 I 18 All Fatalities, Motorcycle All fatalities are counted in crashes where at least one motorcycle is involved. All persons killed in the crash are counted.

Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, 2015 I 19 All Fatalities, Passenger Vehicles All fatalities are counted in crashes where at least one passenger vehicle is involved. All persons killed in the crash are counted.

Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, 2015 I 20 All Fatalities Count The count includes all people killed in the crash: Drivers of any of the vehicles Passengers of any of the vehicles Pedestrians Anyone who was killed by the crash/incident

Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, 2015 I 21 We will associate Population with "All Fatalities“ Data: If there is more population, there are more fatalities. If there are more cars, there are more crashes, more pedestrians, more crashes, more trucks, more crashes, etc.

Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, 2015 I 22 Many are paying attention to this number. Population is connected to many governmental concerns; the representation in government and taxation being of great importance.

Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, 2015 I 23 As population increases and decreases, we, naturally, expect changes in the number of crashes and the number of fatalities to increase and decrease accordingly. An Important principle in Math and Science: Side Note: This is why the definition of the natural base and natural log is dx/dy = x

Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, 2015 I 24 Societal Danger is Modeled by: All Fatalities (AF) count divided by Population (Pop)

Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, 2015 I 25 Using the count TMAF = Total Motorcycle All Fatalities and Population Motorcycle Societal Danger is modeled by: TMAF/Pop Total Motorcycle All Fatalities = Population

Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, 2015 I 26 Societal Danger Model: All Fatalities Count per Population Motorcycle Societal Danger is modeled by: TMAF/Pop Passenger Vehicle Societal Danger is modeled by: TPVAF/Pop It is important that the “Pop” is the same, whether for motorcycle or passenger vehicle rate.

Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, 2015 I 27 TMAF/Pop and TPVAF/Pop Can be used to compare your region to the rest of the country, and other regions.

Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, 2015 I 28 In addition to changes in training and licensing of drivers. This societal danger model can be used to detect changes to:  Roadway  Laws  Gear  Vehicle specification  Etc.

Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, 2015 I 29 TMAF/Pop We consider this inclusive rate to be the most important of all the motorcycle fatality rates. All Fatalities per Population

Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, 2015 I 30 Please go to the Data page of MotorcycleDanger.com to compare your state. All TMAF/Pop on the website are purposefully charted on the same scale to make comparisons easier.