1 An Integrated Look at the Hydrology Program Donna Page 25 Feb. 2009 HIC/ARC Meeting.

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Presentation transcript:

1 An Integrated Look at the Hydrology Program Donna Page 25 Feb HIC/ARC Meeting

2 2 Transformation Requirements: Three Major Areas NWS is committed to lead efforts to: Deploy the Community Hydrologic Prediction System via AWIPS II Produce a seamless suite of probabilistic water forecasts from minutes to years for decision support services Establish a Federal Consortium to leverage capabilities and deliver well coordinated water resources information and forecasts

3 Outline Budget – PPBES Services Development RFC Implementation Vision for Customer Services Looked at the Program from different views

4 General Disclaimer First step in a process –Need your input to refine Timelines are high-level and preliminary –Especially in out years –More detail added in nearer years Better budget information Better idea of schedules for nearer years

5 PPBES Program View AHPS Develop and ImplementationAHPS O&M Water Resources (CHPS, DA, DM) WR-CERIS (North Carolina) WR-CERIS (Delaware) IWRSS (FY12-16 proposal) Hydrology ProgramIntegrated Water Forecasting Program

6 Proposed Elements of NOAA’s Integrated Water Forecasting Program (IWFP) River, Stream, and Local Area Forecasts (present WW-HYD) – Flash Floods – Streamflow – Water Resources Great Lakes (OAR) – Water Levels – Hazardous Spill Response Major Bays and Ports (NOS) – Water Levels – Currents Numerical Weather Prediction (NWS, OAR) – Precipitation Observations and Forecasts – Land Surface Conditions Research and Development (OAR, NWS, NOS, NESDIS) – Observations and Models (including Hydrometeorological Testbed) – Coupled Modeling Systems

7 FY09 Core Goal R&D Funding Priorities Highest, High, Med, Low, Program Areas 1.Improve the quality of physical inputs and forcings (e.g. QPE, QPF, temperature, evapotranspiration, soil conditions, burn data, etc.) 2.Improve river forecasts by improving hydrologic models (Note: river forecasts include water supply forecasts) 3.Improve forecasts of fast response hydrologic events including debris flow 4.Improve river forecast and warning services based on the effect of dam failures 5.Improve hydrologic forecasts impacted by reservoirs and regulation 6.Improve model connections / routing between model simulations (includes coastal effects) 7.Improve flood forecast inundation maps (Static, Dynamic) 8.Quantify the uncertainty of our forecast information 9.Generate and disseminate information to and for our users 10.Provide, then improve, gridded water resource data production capability 11.Provide, then improve, water quality forecasting capability 12.Disseminate hydrometeorolgical data to the field (e.g. HADS) 13.Software refresh – enhance the usability and/or internal workings of existing software 14.Allow the hydrology community to more fully participate in research to operations (e.g. CHPS) 15.Archive information required to support the Hydrology Program now and in the future 16.Verify our forecast and uncertainty information 17.Inform customers of our information and services, assess their satisfaction, and incorporate comments and feedback into Hydrology Program planning 18.Provide science and software training on Hydrology Program applications throughout the research to operations cycle. 19.Improve the efficiency and effectiveness of Hydrology Program management, including an understanding of logistical measures 20.Update and maintain the nation’s precipitation frequency estimates 21.Define and coordinate Hydrology Program requirements with other NOAA programs and federal water partners

8 Funding & Core Goals AHPS –Uncertainty information (Ensembles) –Flash flood –Forcings –Flood inundation mapping (static) –Innovation (regulated rivers) –Verification –Web Services –New Service Locations

9 Funding & Core Goals Water Resources (current) –Software Refresh (CHPS) –Forcings (Data assimilation) –Distributed modeling –Verification –Web Services Water Resources (CERIS NC start – FY10) –Hydraulics (River, Estuary, Ocean models) –Inundation Mapping – dynamic –Water quality (temperature)

10 Funding & Core Goals Integrated Water Forecasting Program (FY12) –Forcings – Data assimilation (HPC, NSSL, NESDIS) –Hydraulics (NOS, OAR) –Software refresh (CHPS) –Distributed modeling –Coordinate with NOAA programs and federal water partners Integrated Water Resources Science and Services –Coordinate with NOAA programs and federal water partners –Software refresh (interagency integration) –Innovation (new services)

11 Services Development View

12 Services, Core Goals, Program Areas Budget Flood Inundation Mapping Flash Flood Services River Forecast Services Forcings XEFSCHPSHydraulics Verification DM Innovation Archive Mapping Flash Flood OutreachPgm MgmtTrainingWebNew Loc Core Goal Teams Program Areas

13 Services, Core Goals, Program Areas Budget Flood Inundation Mapping Flash Flood Services River Forecast Services Forcings XEFSCHPSHydraulics Verification DM Innovation Archive Mapping Flash Flood OutreachPgm MgmtTrainingWebNew Loc Core Goal Teams Program Areas

14 Services, Core Goals, Program Areas Budget Flood Inundation Mapping Flash Flood Services River Forecast Services Forcings XEFSCHPSHydraulics Verification DM Innovation Archive Mapping Flash Flood OutreachPgm MgmtTraining Web New Loc Core Goal Teams Program Areas

15 River Forecasting Services Hydromet Obs and Forecasts (gridded obs/forecasts, MPE/GFE, Dual Pole, NMQ) CHPS (BOC I and II, XEFS 1 and 2, HEC- RAS, Verification, Archive, RFC hardware) Hydraulics (Inland river, REO) Verification (logistical, RFC verif. online) Distributed Model (prototype, CHPS) CERIS (NC, DE) IWRSS (interoperable databases, prototypes)

16 Flash Flood Services QPF (HPN, Radar) QPE (Gage analysis, HP FFG (gridded ffg) FFMP (FFG updates, small basin repository) DH for FF (DHM-TF prototype, AWIPS) FF Verification (ID events, StormDat) Warning Generation (NGWT) Dambreak (Doc&train, HEC-RAS, 2D model)

17 Inundation Mapping Services Partnerships Static maps (implement, add to interface) Flood Risk Communications Dynamic maps (prototype in CHPS) Levee, Dam breech maps Probabilistic forecast maps (prototype) R-E-O maps

18 RFC View

19 RFC Implementation Note: All schedules are preliminary

20 RFC Implementation CHPS BOC 2 CHPS BOC 1 AWIPS II XEFS 1 AWIPS II Extended CHPS AWIPS XEFS Proto Dual Pole RFC Hardware XEFS 2 Prototype Archive DHM in CHPS CERIS (NC) CERIS (DE) IWRSS MPE in GFE GFE/NPVU Thin ClientCollab. Tools

21 Customers

22 Customer Services Note: All schedules are preliminary

23 Customer Service Vision 4,011 AHPS locations River flood warning verification Short term ensemble prototypes NRLDB info on the web Web prototype of short term ensembles coupled with inundation mapping (Aptima proposal) National water resource web service Ensemble web service CERIS web service Probabilistic Water Surface Profile

24 We Need Your Help Schedules will be posted on the walls this week What are we missing? Is the relative order right? Add your comments to the schedules Are there other ways to look at it?