Sea Surface Temperature Changes & Biogeographic Ranges of Commercial Marine Species Canadian Climate Change Impacts & Adaptation Program Project A515 &

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Global Climate Model (GCM) Scenarios for Climate Change Impacts Research Trevor Murdock, M.Sc. Canadian Institute for.

Advertisements

Downscaling of Global Climate Model (GCM) A.K.M. Saiful Islam Associate Professor, IWFM Coordinator, Climate Change Study Cell Bangladesh University of.

The Response of Atlantic Cod (Gadus morhua) to Future Climate Change

Climate Change and Thermal Sensitivity of Commercial Marine Species Workshop on Project Results, Interpretation, and Feedback 24 October 2006 McGill Global.

Introduction In this study we have applied sea surfaces temperatures (SSTs) derived from remote sensing and Global Climate Models (GCMs) projections to.

A statistical method for calculating the impact of climate change on future air quality over the Northeast United States. Collaborators: Cynthia Lin, Katharine.

Projections of Future Atlantic Hurricane Activity Hurricane Katrina, Aug GFDL model simulation of Atlantic hurricane activity Tom Knutson NOAA /

Climate modeling Current state of climate knowledge – What does the historical data (temperature, CO 2, etc) tell us – What are trends in the current observational.

Outline Further Reading: Detailed Notes Posted on Class Web Sites Natural Environments: The Atmosphere GG 101 – Spring 2005 Boston University Myneni L31:

PHYC Environmental Physics Climate, Climate Change Nuclear Power and the Alternatives.

Geographic data: sources and considerations. Geographical Concepts: Geographic coordinate system: defines locations on the earth using an angular unit.

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam WFM 6311: Climate Change Risk Management Akm Saiful Islam Lecture-4: Module- 3 Regional Climate.

Assessment of Future Change in Temperature and Precipitation over Pakistan (Simulated by PRECIS RCM for A2 Scenario) Siraj Ul Islam, Nadia Rehman.

Determining the Local Implications of Global Warming Professor Clifford Mass, Eric Salathe, Patrick Zahn, Richard Steed University of Washington.

Climate Variability and Prediction in the Little Colorado River Basin Matt Switanek 1 1 Department of Hydrology and Water Resources University of Arizona.

Rachael Dempsey Penn State’s Institutes of the Environment

What role does the Ocean play in Global Climate Change?

Climate and Food Security Thank you to the Yaqui Valley and Indonesian Food Security Teams at Stanford 1.Seasonal Climate Forecasts 2.Natural cycles of.

The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information.

1 Regional Climate Change Summary of TAR Findings How well do the Models Work at Regional Scales? Some Preliminary Simulation Results Understanding Climate.

Center for Satellite Applications and Research (STAR) Review 09 – 11 March 2010 NOAA Operational Geostationary Sea Surface Temperature Products from NOAA.

1 Improved Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Analyses for Climate NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center Asheville, NC Thomas M. Smith Richard W. Reynolds Kenneth.

Climate data, Trends and Scenarios in Sri Lanka AS-12 Senaka Basnayake Center for Climate Change Studies (CCCS) Department of Meteorology Colombo Sri Lanka.

Climate Modeling Elissa Lynn SCRO August 27, 28/ 2013.

© Crown copyright Met Office Climate Projections for West Africa Andrew Hartley, Met Office: PARCC national workshop on climate information and species.

Climate Variability and Change in the U.S. GLOBEC Regions as Simulated by the IPCC Climate Models: Ecosystem Implications PIs: Antonietta Capotondi, University.

Outline Further Reading: Detailed Notes Posted on Class Web Sites Natural Environments: The Atmosphere GE 101 – Spring 2007 Boston University Myneni L30:

Rainfall & Temperature Scenarios for Sri Lanka under the anticipated Climate Change B.R.S.B. Basnayake 1, Janaka Ratnasiri 2, J.C. Vithanage 2 1 Centre.

Regional Climate Change Scenarios for India and Implications for Water Availability Issues K. Krishna Kumar CIRES Visiting Fellow, University of Colorado,

1. The Limits to Growth. Report of the Club of Rome The Club of Rome brings together scientists, economists, businessmen, international officials and.

Climate Baseline Scenarios and GCMs performance By Mario Bidegain (Facultad de Ciencias – UR LA32/LA26) Ines Camilloni (Facultad de Ciencias – UBA LA26)

Preliminary Results of Global Climate Simulations With a High- Resolution Atmospheric Model P. B. Duffy, B. Govindasamy, J. Milovich, K. Taylor, S. Thompson,

Climate Change. The story line Earth’s energy budget More energy? Warming? What else? What about the future? So what?

Climate Modeling Jamie Anderson May Monitoring tells us how the current climate has/is changing Climate Monitoring vs Climate Modeling Modeling.

© Crown copyright Met Office Providing High-Resolution Regional Climates for Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning Joseph Intsiful, African.

Climate Change in the Pacific Northwest: Impacts and Planning Philip Mote UW Climate Impacts Group University of Washington Climate Science in the Public.

Climate Change 101. What Is Climate? What Is the Greenhouse Effect?

Downscaling Future Climate Scenarios for the North Sea 2006 ROMS/TOMS Workshop, Alcalá de Henares, 6-8 November Bjørn Ådlandsvik Institute of Marine Research.

15 december 2009 Usefulness of GCM data for predicting global hydrological changes Frederiek Sperna Weiland Rens van Beek Jaap Kwadijk Marc Bierkens.

From Ocean Sciences at the Bedford Institute of Oceanography Temperature – Salinity for the Northwest.

Future Climate Projections. Lewis Richardson ( ) In the 1920s, he proposed solving the weather prediction equations using numerical methods. Worked.

Towards downscaling changes of oceanic dynamics Hans von Storch and Zhang Meng ( 张萌 ) Institute for Coastal Research Helmholtz Zentrum Geesthacht, Germany.

Climate Change and the Water Cycle Richard Harding Centre for Ecology and Hydrology.

Evaluation of climate models, Attribution of climate change IPCC Chpts 7,8 and 12. John F B Mitchell Hadley Centre How well do models simulate present.

Human fingerprints on our changing climate Neil Leary Changing Planet Study Group June 28 – July 1, 2011 Cooling the Liberal Arts Curriculum A NASA-GCCE.

Global and SE U.S. Assessment of Precipitation: Comparison of Model Simulations with Reanalysis-based Observations Eduardo Ponce Mojica Polytechnic University.

Climate Change : The State of Knowledge Bryson Bates Leader, Pathways to Adaptation Theme 22 April 2009 Climate Adaptation National Research Flagship.

Climate Change Scenario Analysis in the Future Over Climate Change Scenario Analysis in the Future Over western of China Ying Xu Xuejie Gao Yun Gao National.

Application of GIS in Analysis of Temporal and Spatial Variation of Surface Air Temperature in the Rio Conchos Basin in Mexico Marcelo Somos.

Development of Climate Change Scenarios of Rainfall and Temperature over the Indian region Potential Impacts: Water Resources Water Resources Agriculture.

The evolution of climate modeling Kevin Hennessy on behalf of CSIRO & the Bureau of Meteorology Tuesday 30 th September 2003 Canberra Short course & Climate.

Possible North Atlantic extratropical cyclone activity in a warmer climate Lanli Guo William Perrie Zhenxia Long Montreal 2012 Bedford Institute of Oceanography,

1 “Our Great Geophysical Experiment” Source: NOAA, Hurricane Katrina shortly before landfall.

Experience with ROMS for Downscaling IPCC Climate Models 2008 ROMS/TOMS European Workshop, Grenoble, 6-8 October Bjørn Ådlandsvik, Paul Budgell, Vidar.

1 Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Global Climate Models, and California Climate Change Impacts.

The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information.

Developing a Research Agenda for the Caribbean Food System to respond to Global Climate Changes September, 2002 University of the West Indies, St.

Climate Change and Water Supply: Potential Hydrologic Consequences Guido Franco Technical Lead for Climate Change Research Public Interest Energy Research.

NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation Climate Change Projections for India and Assessment of the Associated Agricultural and Human Health Impacts.

Climate scenarios for the Netherlands The Netherlands approach for generating climate change scenarios Bart van den Hurk,

Climate Change – is it really happening? Kathy Maskell Walker Institute for Climate System Research, University of Reading.

Schematic framework of anthropogenic climate change drivers, impacts and responses to climate change, and their linkages (IPCC, 2007).

ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE TEACHERS’ CONFERENCE ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE TEACHERS’ CONFERENCE, Borki Molo, Poland, 7-10 February 2007 Projection of future climate.

Sea Surface Temperature as a Trigger of Butterfish Migration: A Study of Fall Phenology Amelia Snow1, John Manderson2, Josh Kohut1, Laura Palamara1, Oscar.

Downscaling sea level rise in the Mediterranean Sea under different future climate change scenarios ( ) Kareem M. Tonbol (Ph.D.) Assistant Professor.

Forecasting Siam Reap.

Schematic framework of anthropogenic climate change drivers, impacts and responses to climate change, and their linkages (IPCC, 2007).

Schematic framework of anthropogenic climate change drivers, impacts and responses to climate change, and their linkages (IPCC, 2007).

Wrap Up and Review Current Weather Climate Change Attribution

Presentation transcript:

Sea Surface Temperature Changes & Biogeographic Ranges of Commercial Marine Species Canadian Climate Change Impacts & Adaptation Program Project A515 & WWF Gail L. Chmura 1, Lou Van Guelpen 2, Gerhard W. Pohle 2, Sarah Vereault 1, and Elizabeth Flanary 1 1 McGill University & Global Environment and Climate Change Centre 2 Huntsman Marine Science Centre / Atlantic Reference Centre Northeast US Continental Shelf Newfoundland – Labrador Shelf Scotian Shelf

February August For each species the “thermal niche” or “bioclimate envelope” was determined from its geographical distribution (water depths & range in latitude) with respect to satellite-derived (AVHRR) data on sea surface temperatures. We determined the winter minimum and summer maximum. We determined future temperatures by adding the change image to this one.

Plotted from temperatures reported in the literature. Plotted from temperatures derived from distribution data. Laminaria digitata – reported thermal niche (or range) is -2 to 22°C

Scenarios of Forcing Factors Used – from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) B2 forecasts low population growth and more concern for the environment A2 forecasts high population growth and less concern for the environment greater cumulative emissions of greenhouse gases (& sulphate aerosols)

2 periods used: = baseline = 4°C avg global warming Plus: = 2°C avg global warming - see website New 2005 We used output from global circulation / global climate models – actually Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs)

AOGCMs vary in their number of layers and algorithms for the processes and transfers among the layers. Hadley Centre Using geospatial statistics we downscaled the coarse output of each AOGCM

AOGCMs vary in their spatial resolution. GFDL (US Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) Spatial Resolution of Models (°lat & long) CCCma 3.75 x 3.75 CCSR/NIES 5.6 x x 5.6 CSIRO 3.2 x 5.6 GFDL 2.25 x 3.75

avg Feb SST (or Aug) over the period change in SSTs for that month (at the center of each pixel) avg Feb SST (or Aug) over the baseline period =

change in SSTs “downscaled” GFDL grid in vector format. GFDL changefield for February

A2 B2 February CCCmaCSIROCCSRGFDL A2 B2 August Greater differences among models than between scenarios. change in temp. Change = 2099 minus the baseline:

A2 B2 February CCCmaCSIROCCSRGFDL A2 B2 August

+ February AVHRR SST GFDL prediction for Feb SST interpolated (downscaled) change in SSTs GFDL changefield for Feb = real-time satellite data, averaged, & 9 km resolution future sea surface temperatures