1. Climate Change and Thermal Sensitivity of Commercial Marine Species Workshop on Project Results, Interpretation, and Feedback 24 October 2006 McGill Global Environmental and Climate Change Centre Gail Chmura Huntsman Marine Science Centre Lou Van Guelpen Gerhard Pohle

2. Workshop schedule 1:00 – welcome, overview 1:10 – presentation of report results Sea surface temperature changes NW Atlantic – Chmura Impacts on commercial marine species – Van Guelpen & Pohle 2: 10 – interpretation of results – Dr. Fred Page, DFO St. Andrews 3:00 – break (catered) 3:20 – open forum - audience feedback 4:30 – closing remarks

3. Project objectives changes in distribution of commercially important species  greenhouse warming  increase in average global air temperature of 4C o by ~2090 vulnerability to climate change/barriers to their adaptation fishing & aquaculture industries and resource managers - initial information  enable consideration of economic consequences and adaptations to upcoming changes  identify new opportunities

4. Organization Part A: Sea Surface Temperatures – Present and Future Part B: 1.Impacts of climate change on species distributions 2.Sensitivity analysis 3.Synthesis 4.Commercial impacts

5. 1. Impacts of climate change on species distributions Methods Species  33 marine species of economic importance to Atlantic Canada  capture fishery, aquaculture, bio-invader, or trophically basal prey  northern or southern limit in Canadian Atlantic waters  thermal sensitivities at each life stage

7. Map legend  CLIMATE FORCING SCENARIOS : A2 = high pop. growth, less environmental concern B2 = low pop. growth, more environmental concern  MODELS = 4  COLOURS: red = loss of thermal habitat green = increase blue = no change cross hatching = present distribution

8. Results Every species – distribution will change Species groups: 1.GREATEST HABITAT LOSS –in GSL, NS, NF, Lab. 2.LESSER HABITAT LOSS –in GSL, southern NS 3.LEAST HABITAT LOSS –in southern part of species range (~Cape Cod southward) 4.HABITAT GAIN –in GSL, NF, Lab.

9. Species examined with GREATEST HABITAT LOSS: PlantsInvertebratesFishes serrated wrackcapelin Atlantic salmon

10. GREATEST HABITAT LOSS Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar)

11. GREATEST HABITAT LOSS Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) Distribution:  habitat loss Cape Cod to tail of Grand Bank, GSL  no northward gain (study does not reach northern range limit)

12. Species examined with LESSER HABITAT LOSS: PlantsInvertebratesFishes knotted wrackCalanus finmarchicusAmerican plaice kelp (3 species)northern shrimp green sea urchin

13. LESSER HABITAT LOSS Northern shrimp (Pandalus borealis)

14. LESSER HABITAT LOSS Northern shrimp (Pandalus borealis) Distribution:  habitat loss Cape Cod southward; perhaps GSL, Labrador  no northward gain (study does not reach northern range limit)

15. Species examined with LEAST HABITAT LOSS: PlantsInvertebratesFishes rockweedblack clamAtlantic wolffish Atlantic rock crabAtlantic menhaden eastern oysterAtlantic herring American lobster Atlantic cod Atlantic long-fin squid Atlantic halibut quahoghaddock soft-shelled clamsilver hake blue mussel Atlantic deep-sea scallop

16. LEAST HABITAT LOSS Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua)

17. LEAST HABITAT LOSS Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) Distribution:  loss of southern habitat (southern New England southward); perhaps Labrador  no northward gain (study does not reach northern range limit)

18. Species examined with HABITAT GAIN: PlantsInvertebratesFishes blue crab green crab Japanese shore crab common periwinkle

19. HABITAT GAIN Japanese shore crab (Hemigrapsus sanguineus)

20. HABITAT GAIN Japanese shore crab (Hemigrapsus sanguineus) Special status:  invasive species (Pacific); 1988  rapid dispersal, high densities Distribution:  loss of southern habitat (Chesapeake to Delaware Bay or Long Island Sound  large northward gain throughout Canadian Atlantic  should extend into Canada w/o climate change

21. 2. Sensitivity Analysis Objective to examine relative sensitivity (vulnerability) of each species to increasing SSTs Methods literature on sensitivity to temperature:  incomplete  variable - geographic region, season, population, and source (i.e., experimental versus observational) considered a function of three parameters (in order of importance):  mobility during each life history stage  absolute temperature range experienced by a species =“stenothermalness”  north/south distribution each scored scores added higher value = less sensitivity

22. Plants most sensitive Fishes generally least sensitive Sensitive fishes Least sensitive invertebrates Sensitivity Results Less sensitive invert.

23. 3. Synthesis of analyses Conclusion: degree of impact on distribution ~ stenothermal & N/S distribution

24. 4. Commercial impacts project = 33 species to date - 10 fishes, 5 invertebrates, 0 plants examined examples following – represent species examined (mostly)

25. GREATEST HABITAT LOSS Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar)

26. GREATEST HABITAT LOSS Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) negative impact - recreational fishery:  mortality  more frequent closures of rivers due to warm temps. may override progress of recovery and restoration programs positive impact - aquaculture  longer growing season, faster growth rate, lower winter mortality  expansion to other waters

27. b GREATEST HABITAT LOSS Capelin (Mallotus villosus)

28. GREATEST HABITAT LOSS Capelin (Mallotus villosus) negative impact – commercial fishery in most regions:  southern Gulf of Maine  Scotian Shelf  Grand Bank  Gulf of St. Lawrence  perhaps Labrador

29. LESSER HABITAT LOSS Northern shrimp (Pandalus borealis)

30. LESSER HABITAT LOSS Northern shrimp (Pandalus borealis) negative impact – commercial fishing  southern GoM  perhaps in southern GSL  perhaps Labrador

31. LESSER HABITAT LOSS American plaice (Hippoglossoides platessoides)

32. LESSER HABITAT LOSS American plaice (Hippoglossoides platessoides) negative impact – commercial fishing  southern GoM  perhaps GSL  perhaps Labrador

33. LEAST HABITAT LOSS Atlantic deep-sea scallop (Placopecten magellanicus)

34. LEAST HABITAT LOSS Atlantic deep-sea scallop ( Placopecten magellanicus ) negative impact – commercial fishing  approx. NJ southward  perhaps Labrador

35. LEAST HABITAT LOSS Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus)

36. LEAST HABITAT LOSS Atlantic herring ( Clupea harengus ) negative impact – commercial fishing  approx. NJ or Cape Hatteras southward  perhaps Labrador

37. HABITAT GAIN Common periwinkle (Littorina littorina)

38. HABITAT GAIN Common periwinkle ( Littorina littorina ) negative impact – commercial fishing  minimal south of Cape Cod  southern GoM may become suboptimal  perhaps GSL positive impact – potential new fishing  Labrador

39. HABITAT GAIN Blue crab ( Callinectes sapidus ) fishing – not yet examined Important in US (comm. & recr.) positive impact – potential new fishing in Canada

40. Project funding: Natural Resources Canada Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Program Project A515

41. Interpretation of Results Dr. Fred Page Section Head Ocean Sciences DivisionOcean Sciences DFO St. Andrews Biological Station