Keith Bocian Josh Ho Kate Kennedy Paul Marshall Stacy Roth

Haiti  Extreme Poverty 149 th of 182 countries on Human Development Index Nearly 80% of population lives on $2 a day or less  Devastated by earthquake on January 12, ,000 people killed, 300,000 injured, 1 million homeless 250,000 residences and 30,000 buildings collapsed or severely damaged

Trilogy International Partners  Bellevue, WA based company  Holds a portfolio of international cell phone companies  Pioneer of introducing wireless in emerging markets  Purchased Voila, the second largest cell phone provider in Haiti in 2005 Wyclef Jean, Voila Spokesperson

Project Overview  “Create a copper-free Haiti”  Invest $100 million to rebuild Haiti’s telecom infrastructure  No landlines to be built – network to be entirely wireless  Project success is contingent on government acceptance of key conditions Undo previous mobile phone privatization efforts Allow Trilogy to obtain majority rights to the available mobile spectrum Put a moratorium on new licensing

Return on Investment Potential  Market Growth Only 32% of Haitian have cell phones 10% use internet regularly = Lots of room for growth  Economic Growth International aid and private investments may help revive Haiti’s economy Abundant low-cost labor may make Haiti one of the “last frontiers” for manufacturing investments

Risk  Project Risk Need Power, but Infrastructure is severely damaged Construction might be delayed  Political Risk Widespread corruption; Ranked #168/180 countries Consistent history of violent uprisings and natural disasters  Regulatory Risk Regulatory changes likely and unpredictable Time inconsistent preference problem How valuable is a guarantee from the Haitian government?

% Change GDP, as Correlated with Events USA & UN Sanctions due to coup Natural Disasters destroy 80% of crops Political turmoil

Risk  Currency Risk Consistent Devaluation of Haitian Currency (Gourde) ○ 2000-present: 17 Gourdes/USD to 40 Gourdes/USD High inflation ○ Central Bank: Targets Price Stability & 10% inflation ○ But: Actual inflation averaged 20% from  Economic Risk Despite recent debt forgiveness: Consistent twin deficits Limited Opportunity for foreign investment: Low Productivity: Infrastructure Destroyed Low Purchasing Power Adjustment to GDP

Recommendation  Upsides Opportunity to leverage existing investment and grow market share Lots of room for growth in the Haitian market Possibility of Haitian economy recovering and growing  Risks: Political - Unstable Regulatory – Time Inconsistency Project – Construction/Infrastructure Currency – Consistent Devaluation Economic – Few Signs of Improvement We recommend that Trilogy does not make this additional investment in Haiti