The Course of Demographic Revolutions in Europe Kateřina IVANOVÁ Department of Social Medicine and Health Care Management

Reproduction - part 22 Pre-transition period  Pre-transition period (constant population – high death rates: 3-4 times higher than now; limiting birth rates if possible; adverse conditions; lack of resources).  Limiting birth rates: prehistoric times – breast-feeding, ancient times – slaves, middle ages – intercourse limitations, abandoning children, infanticide.

Reproduction - part 23 First demographic revolution A  Crude birth rate decreases from per 1,000 to less than 15 per 1,000.  Infant mortality significantly decreases and life expectancy rises from years to approximately two-fold.  These changes result in the process of demographic ageing and rapid rise of population.

Reproduction - part 24 Population of Europe - development trends between 400 BC and 2000 AD

Reproduction - part 25 First demographic revolution B  Crude birth rate decreases from per 1,000 to less than 20 per 1,000.  The demographic revolution onset is characterized by total fertility rate decrease below 5.0 and its end by permanent decrease below 2.5.  Its onset was noticed in France as early as 18th century and soon after in England, then it gradually spread all over the world.  It lasted 100 years in some places and 60 years in others.

Reproduction - part 26 First demographic revolution C  Related to the development (modernization) of the following three components: –technological (means of transport, communication, medical technology, health care); –structural (standard of living, social welfare, women’s education and employment) and –cultural (democracy, equality of people, larger personal freedom, developing individualism).

Reproduction - part 27 First demographic revolution D is finished when:  birth rate is already low, close to death rate (low as well), growth rate is close to zero. For the time being population momentum plays a role in population growth.

Reproduction - part 28 First demographic transition model

Reproduction - part 29 Second demographic revolution A  Characterized by fertility rate falling below the replacement level, this does not secure population replacement.  Changes in death rate (consistent, slow improvement of the conditions) have only little impact on population growth.  The above mentioned changes are usually related to growing individualism and value orientation of people.

Reproduction - part 210 Second demographic revolution B  This statement is not that simple, the process of human reproduction is affected by numerous causes and factors of biological, cultural, economical, political and value nature.  Changes also result from the modern society as a whole. Practically these result from available contraception, later and less frequent marriages.

Reproduction - part 211 Second demographic revolution C  Logical sequence of demographic changes of the second demographic transition:  Total fertility rates decrease as higher- aged women do not give birth to children any longer.  Fewer higher-order births of children.  Fewer pre-marital pregnancies and fewer marriages due to brides’ pregnancies.

Reproduction - part 212 Second demographic revolution D  However, the average age at the time of the first marriage kept decreasing.  The period between the marriage and the birth of the first child was longer, women gave birth to fewer children, there were fewer higher-order births, resulting in decreasing total fertility rates.  Divorce rates started to increase.

Reproduction - part 213 Second demographic revolution E  Young people postpone their marriages and replace them by cohabitation (living together without being married). This increases the average age at the time of the first marriage.  Cohabitation is increasingly popular, young couples only get married after the bride is pregnant. This results in higher proportion of children born before marriages. The age of women giving birth to their first children rises.

Reproduction - part 214 Second demographic revolution F  Legalization of sterilization and abortions resulted in further decrease of unwanted pregnancies which in turn lowered the number of births given by women at the end of their fertility.  Cohabitation gets more support due to the fact that it is favoured both by divorced people and by those whose partner in the previous marriage died.

Reproduction - part 215 Second demographic revolution G  Cohabitation is increasingly regarded as an alternative to marriages, resulting in increasing number of born children.  Total fertility rates stabilize at low levels.  After some time, total fertility rates begin to rise a little as women who have been postponing their pregnancy start having their children. This also increases the proportion of first and second children born to higher-aged women.

Reproduction - part 216 Second demographic revolution H  Voluntary childlessness is an increasingly more significant demographic feature.  Fertility rates of individual cohorts stabilize below the replacement level.

Reproduction - part 217 Results of revolutions - transitions  A significant shift in the value system of the young generation. Simultaneously we observe immense plurality of opinions and ideas – diversification of life values and related lifestyles. This also results in plurality of partnership and family life.  The crucial role in all these changes is played by marked social and economic empowerment of women.

Reproduction - part 218 The end  Thank you for your attention!!!!