Caribbean Training Course in Seismology and Tsunami Warnings June 25-30, 2007, St. Augustine, Trinidad TWC Operations for the Caribbean Dr. Charles McCreery, Director NOAA Richard H. Hagemeyer Pacific Tsunami Warning Center NOAA Richard H. Hagemeyer Pacific Tsunami Warning Center Ewa Beach, Hawaii USA

Why do you need to know about tsunami warning operations for the Caribbean? To better understand the capabilities and limitations of the systemTo better understand the capabilities and limitations of the system Speed of systemSpeed of system Accuracy of systemAccuracy of system Reliability of systemReliability of system Effectiveness of systemEffectiveness of system To have and to promote expectations accordinglyTo have and to promote expectations accordingly To work to improve the systemTo work to improve the system

Some Key Definitions Regional Tsunami Watch Provider (RTWP)Regional Tsunami Watch Provider (RTWP) Center responsible for issuing timely tsunami threat guidance to other countries based on their own analysis. PTWC currently acting as the RTWP for the Caribbean National Tsunami Warning Center (NTWC)National Tsunami Warning Center (NTWC) Center responsible for issuing tsunami warnings to a country. Capabilities can range from acting only on RTWP messages to having full analysis capabilities. National Tsunami Warning Focal Point (TWFP)National Tsunami Warning Focal Point (TWFP) 24x7 office designated by a country to receive and act on messages from the RTWP. Usually it is the NTWC. ICG Tsunami National Contact (TNC)ICG Tsunami National Contact (TNC) A person designated by a country as the contact point for ICG-related matters on tsunami warning and mitigation.

PTWC Key Operational Activities Seismic Detection and AnalysisSeismic Detection and Analysis Rapidly detect large earthquakes, determine their origin time, location, depth and magnitude, and otherwise evaluate their tsunami generation potential. Sea Level Monitoring and MeasuringSea Level Monitoring and Measuring Monitor sea level data to detect, measure and evaluate tsunami waves. Decision-makingDecision-making Utilize all available data and decision-making tools such as forecast models to determine if a tsunami threat exists, the extent of the threat, and when the threat is ended. Message Creation and DisseminationMessage Creation and Dissemination Create messages appropriate to the situation and disseminate them to the area of responsibility.

Current PTWC Network of Seismic Stations (from GSN & USNSN & Other Contributing Networks)

BBGH SDDR TGUH

U.S. National Ocean Service Coastal Sea Level Gauges

Current Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico DARTs

NOS Sea Level Gauges (1-min samples, 6-min transmissions)

Caribbean Tsunami Scenario

Earth- quake Depth Earth- quake Location Earth- quake Magnitude (Mw) Description of Tsunami Potential Product Type < 100 km Under or very near the sea 6.0 to 7.0 Caribbean Very small potential for a destructive local tsunami Tsunami Information Statement 6.5 to 7.8 Atlantic Very small potential for a destructive ocean-wide tsunami Tsunami Information Statement 7.1 to 7.5 Caribbean Potential for a destructive local tsunami Local Tsunami Watch Message 7.6 to 7.8 Caribbean Potential for a destructive regional tsunami Regional Tsunami Watch Message ≥ 7.9 Caribbean & Atlantic Potential for a destructive ocean- wide tsunami Ocean-wide Tsunami Watch Message Inland≥ 6.0 Carib ≥ 6.5 Atlan No tsunami potentialTsunami Information Statement ≥ 100 km All Locations ≥ 6.0 Carib ≥ 6.5 Atlan No tsunami potentialTsunami Information Statement CRITERIA FOR CARTWS PRODUCTS

Values projected from Harvard CMT Catalog 2500 Events Destructive Local Tsunamis Cumulative Events per Century  Mw Value Moment Magnitude, Mw Information Bulletin Mw = Fixed 1000km Regional Warning Mw = Expanding 3+3 hour Regional Warning/Watch Mw > Events Destructive Local or Regional Tsunamis 100 Events Destructive Local or Regional Tsunamis 8 Tele- Tsunamis

WMO/GTS AND AWIPS IDs FOR CARTWS PRODUCTS WMO/GTS IDAWIPS IDProduct Type WECA41 PHEBTSUCAXTsunami Watch Message WECA43 PHEBTIBCAXTsunami Information Statement

PTWC Timeline for a Caribbean Event MinEvent 0Earthquake occurs 1-5PTWC Alarm Sounds Automatic Earthquake Solution Interactive Earthquake Solution Observatory Message Issued Reviewed Earthquake Solution 3-10PTWC Product Issued Sea Level Readings Received <hourlyPTWC Products Issued

Speed of System Initial Warnings Effective if you are at least 30 minutes awayEffective if you are at least 30 minutes away Faster where denser seismic network availableFaster where denser seismic network available Tsunami Confirmation At least minutes except near Puerto RicoAt least minutes except near Puerto Rico

Accuracy of System Seismic Parameters Location, Depth and Magnitude sufficient (but there is a trade-off with timeliness)Location, Depth and Magnitude sufficient (but there is a trade-off with timeliness) Tsunami Evaluation / Forecast Very limited capabilities due to limited sea level data and forecast model guidanceVery limited capabilities due to limited sea level data and forecast model guidance Result: Likelihood of Over-Warning

Reliability of System PTWC Reliability Many levels of backup to maintain constant 24x7 operationsMany levels of backup to maintain constant 24x7 operations NTWC Reliability (Developing) Communication tests and drills to exercise and improveCommunication tests and drills to exercise and improve End-to-End Reliability (Developing) For local tsunami, communications may be damaged.For local tsunami, communications may be damaged.

Effectiveness of System An Unknown at this Early Stage Message products from TWCs need to be understood and lead to appropriate actionsMessage products from TWCs need to be understood and lead to appropriate actions Communications systems are needed to quickly alert those at riskCommunications systems are needed to quickly alert those at risk Exercises are needed to test and improve systemExercises are needed to test and improve system Educational programs are needed for public and decision-makersEducational programs are needed for public and decision-makers All stakeholders need to be involvedAll stakeholders need to be involved

Thank You