CATTLENOMICS Derrell S. Peel Agricultural Economics Oklahoma State University.

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Presentation transcript:

CATTLENOMICS Derrell S. Peel Agricultural Economics Oklahoma State University

PART 1: INDUSTRY DEMOGRAPHICS

U.S. All Cattle and Calves Since 1867

Oklahoma All Cattle and Calves Since 1867

January 1, 2002 (1,000 Head) All Cattle and Calves Cattle on Feed 1TX13,600 2KS 6,600 3NE 6,400 4CA 5,200 5OK 5,200 6MO 4,350 7SD 3,950 8IA 3,550 9WI 3,300 10CO 3,050 1TX2,890 2KS2,530 3NE2,370 4CO1,210 5IA 955 6CA 480 7OK 365 8SD 355 9ID AZ 305

January 1, 2002 (1,000 Head) Beef Cows Beef Heifers 1TX5,440 2MO2,060 3OK1,933 4NE1,932 5SD1,792 6KS1,485 7MT1,451 8KY1,075 9TN1,060 10ND1,008 1TX750 2MT370 3OK330 4SD300 5NE285 6MO280 7KS230 8TN175 9KY WY/AR 165

January 1, 2002 Feeder Supply Stocker Ratio (1,000 Head) TX3,740 2OK2,375 3KS2,135 4MO1,620 5NE1,620 6CA1,370 7SD1,280 8IA1,075 9MN WI Stocker Ratio = Feeder Supply / Calf Crop U.S. Avg = 0.75

U.S. Average Stocker Ratio, January 1, 2002

Regional Stocker Ratio, January

Stocker Ratio, January 1

Regional Share of Beef Cows, January 1, 2002

Beef Heifer Retention Rate

Regional Share of Beef Replacement Heifers, Jan

Regional Beef Heifer Retention Rates, Jan

Beef Heifer Retention Rate

Regional Share of Feeder Supplies Outside of Feedlots, Jan

Southern Plains Feeder Share

Regional Feeder Share

PART 2: PRICE RELATIONSHIPS

Feeder and Fed Steer Prices,

Seasonal Price Pattern

450 Lb. Stocker Buy-Sell Seasonal Price Pattern – 300 Lbs Gain

450 Lb. Stocker Buy-Sell Seasonal Price Pattern – 200 Lbs Gain

550 Lb. Stocker Buy-Sell Seasonal Pattern – 200 Lbs Gain

Feedlot Buy-Sell Seasonal Price Pattern

Steer-Heifer Price Relationship

Steer-Heifer Price Relationship OKC, (Steer – Heifer) $/cwt by weight – – – – – – – – – Heifer Price as % of Steer Price – – – – – – – – –

Steer-Heifer Price Relationship

Seasonal Steer-Heifer Price Patterns

Steer-Heifer Price Relationship: Cyclical Effects

Price-Weight Relationships

Steer Price/Weight Relationship, OKC,

Steer Price/Weight Relationship: Cyclical Effects

Steer Price/Weight Relationship: Seasonal Effects

Steer Price Slide (Rollback)

Working Price Slide Price Adjustment Factor (PAF) as % of Price –up to 500 lbs8.8 – lbs7.4 – lbs6.4 – lbs4.9 – lbs3.7 –> 800 lbs5.4 (PAF/100) x Price ($/cwt) = Price Adjustment ($/cwt) Example: Base weight = 450 lbs Base price = 105 $/cwt Actual weight = 480 lbs Price slide = (105*0.088)=9.24 Sale price: 105- (9.24* ( )/100) =

Value of Gain,

Value of Gain (Based on 200 lbs of Gain)