Joint Typhoon Warning Center 2006 Year In Review Edward Fukada Technical Adviser, JTWC

OVERVIEW Mission / JTWC Origin Area of Responsibility Satellite Recon 2006 vs Climatology Storm Tracks Statistics Coming in 2007 Challenges Questions

MISSION Provide tropical cyclone forecast and warning support for Department of Defense, and other US Government assets in the Pacific and Indian Oceans as established by Commander, United States Pacific Command.

ORIGIN  Established 1959 to protect DoD assets  USPACOM Instruction defines requirements to monitor and warn  Jointly manned with 20 military and civilian positions  Air Force provides reconnaissance and forecasters  Navy provides facility, equipment, and forecasters FM ADMINO CINCPAC TO RPHRB/CINCPACFLT RJHPKM/PACAF INFO RUHPB/CINCUSARPAC RBHPC/MET IN CHG SUPP OFFHON RBEPW/JCS RBMPB/CINCPACREPMARBO RJAPAA/COMUSJAPAN RJMXDA/3RD AIRDIV NAVY GRNC BT ADMINO CINCPAC Z NOTAL REQ YOU ESTABLISH EFFECTIVE 1 MAY 59 A JOINT PACIFIC FLEET PACIFIC AIR FORCES TYPHOON WARNING CENTER INTEGRAL WITH FLEWEACEN GUAM. TITLE NEW ENTITY WILL BE FLEET WEATHER CENTRAL/JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER GUAM UNDER THE COMMAND OF CO FLEWEACEN GUAM. NO CHANGE PROPOSED TO FLEWEACEN RESPONSIBILITIES. MISSION ASSIGNED TO PROVIDE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS TO ALL U.S. GOVT AGENCIES WEST OF 180 DEGREES LONG VIA EXISTING MILITARY AND FAA CIRCUITS AND PROCEDURES. DETERMINE TYPHOON RECCO REQUIREMENTS AND PRIORITIES: CONDUCT INVESTIGATE AND POST ANALYSIS PROGRAM INCLUDING PREPARATION OF ANNUAL TYPHOON SUMMARIES. CONDUCT FORECAST AND DETECTION RESEARCH AS PRACTICABLE. LOGISTIC AND ADMINISTRATIVE SUPPORT AS MUTUALLY AGREED. JTWC SHALL BE STAFFED INITIALLY BY TWO OFFICERS AND THREE ENLISTED EACH FROM THE EXISTING ALLOWANCES OF FLEWEACEN GUAM AND FIRST WEATHER WING. THE SENIOR AIR FORCE OFFICER ASSIGNED SHALL BE THE DIRECTOR JTWC AND SHOULD BE JUNIOR TO THE CO FLEWEACEN/JTWC GUAM. THE TOKYO WEATHER CENTRAL FUCHU ASSISTED AS NECESSARY BY FLEWEAFAC YOKOSUKA IS DESIGNATED ALTERNATE JTWC IN CASE OF FAILURE OF FLEWEACEN/JTWC GUAM. BT

JTWC AOR CPHC New Delhi Reunion Tokyo Australia Fiji NHC 33% 8% 11% 13% 7% 17%

SHEM Multiple Cyclones

Customers Dept of Navy –Installations Yokosuka Sasebo Guam Pearl Harbor Diego Garcia –Ships at sea Dept of Air Force –Installations Kadena Andersen Yokota/Misawa Osan/Kunsan Hickam –Enroute aircraft Dept of Army –Installations Korea Japan Hawaii Marine Corp –Installations Futenma Iwakuni Kaneohe –Expeditionary forces Dept of Commerce –WFO Tiyan Micronesia public forecasts –WFO Honolulu American Samoa –Coordinated forecasts NHC CPHC

2006 FIXES BY AGENCY Total Satellite Fixes = 15,326

NW Pacific NW Pacific 2002: : : : : : : : : : Yr avg: Tropical Cyclones vs Climatology CPHCNHC S Indian Ocean & Australia Region 2002: : : : : Yr avg: 23 South Pacific 2002: : : : : 4 25 Yr avg: 6 C Pacific C Pacific 2002: : : : : : : : : : 4 25 Yr avg: 5 25 Yr avg: 5 NE Pacific NE Pacific 2002: : : : : : : : : : Yr avg: 19 Arabian Sea & Bay of Bengal 2002: : : : : : : : : : 5 25 Yr avg: 5 25 Yr avg: 5

2006 STORM TRACKS

2006 WESTPAC TRACKS

WESTPAC TRACK ERRORS

Officially Implemented Experimental

CROSS TRACK VS ALONG TRACK ERRORS ALONG TRACK CROSS TRACK

WESTPAC INTENSITY ERRORS

NEW IN 2006 Wind Probability Products Available 3-hourly Updated Position Fully Operational Advanced Dvorak Technique Evaluation JTWC Ops Officer & Director 5 Military TDOs Civilianization –1 TDO – Former AF TDO –1 Techniques Development Specialist

COMING IN 2007 Reconnaissance –Civilianization – 1 Satellite Analyst (3FY07) –High Resolution Digital MTSAT –Increased Re-emphasis on Polar Orbiting Data –MARK IVB Termination (May) Along Track Error Evaluation New JTOPS COOP -- aka: AJTWC & ASATOPS Annual Tropical Cyclone Report (ATCR) Changes THORPEX Pacific-Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC) planning/participation

CHALLENGES AF Manning –Mil-to-Civ Conversions –PBD-720 Cuts – Lose 2 Analysts in FY09 Reconnaissance –AFWA/XOGM & NESDIS/SAB Changes –MARK IVB Termination May 07 Follow-on software being evaluated

QUESTIONS ??????