Shrinkage Forum 22 January 2014 Roy Malin. 2 2014/15 Shrinkage Proposals  Initial proposals issued December 2013  Proposed Shrinkage Quantities calculated.

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Presentation transcript:

Shrinkage Forum 22 January 2014 Roy Malin

2 2014/15 Shrinkage Proposals  Initial proposals issued December 2013  Proposed Shrinkage Quantities calculated using two versions of the leakage model:  V1.3 Original Model  V1.4 Includes LP Service Modification  As agreed at the 10 December 2012 Shrinkage Forum, National Grid proposed and applied the revised model for 2013/14 in anticipation of the model change being approved  Still expect model change to be approved  Need to agree the leakage model basis for 2014/15 proposals

3 2014/15 Shrinkage Proposals (GWh) LDZUsing Leakage Model v1.3*Using Leakage Model v1.4*Difference EA EM NT NW WM NE * NO SC * SE SO SW234.7 NG estimate based on data previously provided by WWU. Values to be confirmed 13.4 WN54.7 WS124.4 * As published in initial proposalsTotal and estimated value116£2.6m

4 LP Service Modification  Consultation issued August 2013  Report on consultation sent to Ofgem for approval – October 2013  Concerns  NGN and WWU data not independently verified  Variance of impact between LDZS  NGN and WWU will be commissioning an independent review of their leakage models and proposed baseline changes  Variance analysis

5 LP Service Modification Variance Analysis (1) 

LP Service Modification Variance Analysis (2)  Published impact is the difference between v1.3 and v1.4 leakage models using 2010/11 data  Necessary to normalise for:  Length of Metallic Main  Average System Pressure  Used an LDZ average  Actual impact will depend on the combination of the individual low pressure networks’ ASP and metallic mains lengths  Calorific Value 6

7 LP Service Modification Variance Analysis (3)

8 AGI Venting IFI Update  Currently, National Grid procure 84GWh for AGI Venting  We were expecting a venting value of approximately 130GWh  Report Received January 2014  National Grid venting from pneumatic control equipment  17+/-5.1 GWh  Concerns over robustness of site/equipment inventory  Intention to commission DNV GL carryout a site inventory of National Grid’s pneumatic control equipment

9 Review of SLM Review Consultations  Consultations issued by each DN November/December 2013  Two responses – British Gas and Scottish Power  Intend to issue a Joint DN Report on the consultation  Subject to agreement, future SLM Reviews and Consultations to be a joint DN process  Agree with stakeholders and Ofgem

10 Outcome of SLM Review Consultations  Issues/areas for development  The level of detail included within the SLM Review;  The requirement to review the low pressure leakage rates, and in particular whether this would be cost-effective;  Continued development of Theft of Gas detection and resolution;  Further clarification of the Own Use Gas estimation;  How the industry deals with CSEP Shrinkage;  The level of detail provided regarding the ‘activity factors’ driving the shrinkage estimation, e.g. mains replacement and pressure management.