“WELL, IF I EAT IT, AND IF IT MAKES ME GROW LARGER, I CAN REACH THE KEY; AND IF MAKES ME GROW SMALLER, I CAN CREEP UNDER THE DOOR: SO EITHER WAY I'LL GET INTO THE GARDEN, AND I DON'T CARE WHICH HAPPENS!” - ALICE'S ADVENTURES IN WONDERLAND (1865) Crime Analysis Dr. Joe Ciccone RIP – Dep. Chief Maxwell (photo below – the Lead Inv. For the Rape Case)

Last Week & Grade Review Midterm Comments – Time line & Project 4 Grades Practical Application (This Week) – Unit 6 Project PLEASE BE ON TIME with your Project this week!

Crime Analysis Strategies Crime analysis is a merging of several interdisciplinary studies. A crime analyst excels at statistical analysis, understanding and developing research methodologies, and incorporating sociological, psychological, and criminological theories to produce strategic and tactical assessments. Often the most smilingly simplistic recommendation has undergone a time-consuming assessment.

SARA SARA is a problem-solving model. It stands for Scanning, Analysis, Response, and Assessment.

Scanning The process of conducting a preliminary and final assessment. For example, if you are conducting an analysis of muggings occurring between the hours of 1:00 am–3:00 am, the scanning process would include collecting those incidents over a defined period. In essence, scanning is the collection of incidents pre and post the assessment.

Analysis The process of evaluating the information collected during the scanning process. Continuing with the mugging example, if you know that on average 21 incidents occur during the hours of 1:00 am-1:15 am, 32 incidents from 1:15 am–1:30 am, and decreases after 1:30 am then you have just conducted the analysis of the incidents. Using this information you can form a response.

Response The process of developing a strategic or tactical plan to address the problem identified in the scanning and analysis process. If you analyze the time between 1:00 am–3:00 am you have an increase in reported incidents of mugging during hours of 1:00 am–1:30 am, maximum incidents occurred as it is typically the time people are leaving bars and clubs including staff and patrons. Then you might recommend increasing law enforcement patrols during this time when most incidents occurred.

Assessment The process of examining the plan. However, this process involves the SARA model yet again. To conduct the analysis of the plan, you need to collect the new incidents (scanning), analyze those incidents comparing them against the previous collection (analysis), and if necessary propose a new plan (response). Basically, you have an endless loop that continues until a strategic or tactical plan is determined to be effective.

Criminal Analysis The formula provided on the right is the criminal analysis formula that provides the foundation for the collection, analysis, and dissemination of information to form strategic and tactical assessments. It is a more complicated form of SARA and is based on the basics of the research method. Using this formula, you collect incidents, retain those incidents, analyze those incidents, and then share the results of the analysis. For example, if we return to our SARA mugging example that we discussed in the previous slide, how did we know that more muggings occurred during the hours of 1:00am–3:00am? To determine that an analysis had to occur using all of the collected incidents. The analysis determined the hours when the maximum incidents occurred and the dissemination caused the request of an additional analysis to be conducted during only those hours. Criminal Analysis (CA) + Collection © + Storage (S) + Analysis (A) + Dissemination (D) = Criminal Information (CI)

COP + POP = COPPS Continuing with acronym-based formulas, we have the second strategy that supports law enforcement. The Community Oriented Policing and Problem Solving (COPPS) Program is the merging of two important concepts community-orienting policing (COP) and problem-oriented policing (POP). The premise of this program is to increase the positive interaction between law enforcement and the community. Crime Analysts incorporate this strategy into their development of strategic and tactical plans to increase the likelihood of success.

GIS GIS (Geographic Information Systems) have a pivotal role in assisting law enforcement in the development of strategic and tactical assessments. The most popular of those systems is ARCVIEW. GIS programs allow analysts to visualize the true picture of crime. Up until recently mapping occurred via a combination of a precinct map, a couple dozen different colored push-pins, some colored string, and some markers. While the listed combination makes for some interesting art projects, it was a tedious process. GIS programs made the mapping process and the eventual analysis process more efficient and reliable.

CompStat – NYPD – Bernie Kerik CompStat involves the use of computer-generated statistics to analyze crime problems and develop appropriate responses. COMPSTAT is a process. This process relies on the analysis of crime data in an efficient and effective manner to develop appropriate responses. The primary distinguishing characteristic of this process is technology. It is because of technology that the COMPSTAT process was effective. Using technology (geographic and spatial analysis software), agencies could effectively respond to crimes based on the evaluation of established trends and emerging patterns, while effectively utilizing resources and personnel. In many ways, COMPSTAT is the embodiment of SARA. Even looking at the stages of the process reflects the core tenets of SARA. The success of COMPSTAT as a process is primarily because of the six core components. Mission Clarification: Internal Accountability: Geographic Organization of Operational Command: Organizational Flexibility: Data-Driven Problem Identification and Assessment: Innovative Problem-Solving Tactics

COMPSTAT - Limitations It is important to recognize that the COMPSTAT is very much dependent on technology, available data, and personnel. That is to say, an agencies lack of technology, resources, trained personnel, and even limited incidents of crime make COMPSTAT an ineffective process. Remember that the analysis looks for established patterns and trends and determines if an agencies response caused displacement or actual crime reduction. This requires the dedication of resources and like the basic rule of research, the sample size must be appropriate. Often some smaller agencies lack enough of a sample to implement this process.

Crime Analysis & Questions Civilianization (Internal Issue)  Claim: Scientific Justification for police practices  ZTP – New York Limited Sources of Data Costs (financial and personal) UNIT 6 – PROJECT ~ Questions & Concerns