산업경영공학과 IMEN 315 인간공학 7. Decision Making DEFINITION OF DECISION MAKING qa decision-making task (a)number of alternatives (b)information available to the option (c)timeframe relatively long (d)uncertainty qthree phases for decision making 1)acquiring and perceiving info or cues for the decision 2)generating and selecting hypotheses or situation assessments 3)planning and selecting choices DECISION-MAKING MODELS qnormative model (rational model) – mathematical models; specify what people ideally should do; not how people actually perform DM tasks qdescriptive models – cognitive processes associated with DM behavior

산업경영공학과 IMEN 315 인간공학

산업경영공학과 IMEN 315 인간공학

산업경영공학과 IMEN 315 인간공학 HEURISTICS AND BIASES qusually very powerful and efficient but not guarantee the best solution qoccasionally lead to systematic flaws and errors – biases Information Processing Limits in Decision Making  what happens in WM? 1.cue reception and integration 2.hypothesis generation and selection 3.plan generation and action choice

산업경영공학과 IMEN 315 인간공학 Heuristics and Biases in Receiving and Using Cues 1.attention to a limited number of cues 2.cue primacy and anchoring – first impressions are lasting 3.inattention to later cues 4.cue salience 5.overweighting of unreliable cues Heuristics and Biases in Hypothesis Generation, Evaluation and Selection 1.generation of a limited number of hypotheses 2.availability heuristic – frequency, recency 3.representativeness heuristic 4.overconfidence 5.cognitive tunneling 6.confirmation bias

산업경영공학과 IMEN 315 인간공학 Heuristics and Biases in Action Selection 1.retrieve a small number of actions 2.availability heuristic for actions – recency, frequency, strong association 3.availability of possible outcomes -- hindsight bias 4.framing bias  choose between a certain loss of $50 and an equal chance of losing $100 or breaking even  risky option  choose between a certain gain of $50 and an equal chance of making nothing or $100  conservative option  sunk cost bias – tendency to choose the risky loss over the sure one

산업경영공학과 IMEN 315 인간공학 DEPENDENCY OF DECISION MAKING ON THE DECISION CONTEXT Skill-, Rule-, and Knowledge-Based Behavior

산업경영공학과 IMEN 315 인간공학 Recognition-Primed Decision Making qexperts simply recognize a pattern of cues and recall a single course of action, which is then implemented qrepresentativeness heuristic, rule-based behavior q3 critical assumptions of the RPD model 1.experience to generate a plausible option 2.time pressure not critical because of rapid pattern matching 3.know how to respond from past experience

산업경영공학과 IMEN 315 인간공학 FACTORS AFFECTING DM PERFORMANCE: AN INTEGRATED DESCRIPTION OF DECISION MAKING Mental simulation Poor learning Inaccurate mental models

산업경영공학과 IMEN 315 인간공학 IMPROVING HUMAN DECISION MAKING Task Redesign Decision-Support Systems qcognitive prosthesis – person in a subservient role to the computer – good for anticipated conditions qcognitive tools – support rather than replace the decision maker Decision Matrices and Trees qcognitive process of weighting alternative actions – normative multiattribute utility theory Spreadsheets qone of the most common decision-support tools – large number of errors contained in spreadsheets (24% to 91%) Simulation qnot always enhance decision quality but increase confidence qsimulations are incomplete and can be inaccurate

산업경영공학과 IMEN 315 인간공학 Expert Systems qcognitive prostheses – most effective with routine and well-defined situations qcognitive tools – provide feedback to the dicision maker to improve DM Displays qreduce the cognitive load of info seeking and integration qconfigural displays Training qimproving analytical DM – train to overcome heuristics/biases  normative utility methods for DM qtraining to do a better job at metacognition qdevelopment of mental models and management of uncertainty and time pressure qat the rule-based level, enhance perceptual and pattern-recognition skills qat the automatic level, focus on relevant cues in raw data form