April 19, 2004 International Energy Outlook 2004 Guy Caruso Administrator Energy Information Administration Thirty-First Annual International Energy Conference.

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Presentation transcript:

April 19, 2004 International Energy Outlook 2004 Guy Caruso Administrator Energy Information Administration Thirty-First Annual International Energy Conference Boulder, Colorado

International Energy Outlook 2004 indicates that over the next 24 years … Energy use will grow strongly, especially among the developing countries (2.7% per year in the developing world) There will be continued reliance on fossil fuels through 2025; oil remains the dominant fuel type (39 % of total world energy use) Natural gas is the fastest growing source of primary energy (2.2% per year) Coal will continue to be the predominant source for electricity generation, but natural gas will be an important supply source for power generation in many parts of the world, given its efficiency and environmental benefits. Carbon dioxide emissions resulting from the combustion of fossil fuels will continue to grow (1.9% per year)

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004 World Gross Domestic Product in Three Economic Growth Cases,

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004 World Marketed Energy Consumption in Three Economic Growth Cases,

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004 Forecast Comparisons in 2025: IEO2004 vs. IEO2003

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004 World Marketed Energy Consumption by Region,

Energy Intensity by Region, Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004

World Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, Share of World Total

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004 World Oil Consumption and Production, 2001, 2010, and 2025

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004 Persian Gulf Oil Productive Capacity by Country, 2001 and 2025

World Oil Reserves by Country, as of January 1, 2004 Source: "Worldwide Look at Reserves and Production."Oil & Gas Journal, Vol. 100, No. 49 (December 22, 2003), pp

World Oil Prices in Three Cases, Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004

Nonconventional Oil Production in Three Price Cases,

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004 and International Energy Outlook 2003 Natural Gas Consumption by Region, IEO2004 vs. IEO2003

Source: "Worldwide Look at Reserves and Production," Oil & Gas Journal, Vol. 100, No. 49, December 22, 2003, pp World Natural Gas Reserves by Region, as of January 1, 2004

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004 World Coal Consumption by Region, 1980, 2001, and 2025

Source: EIA, International Energy Annual 2001 World Recoverable Coal Reserves as of January 1, 2001

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004 World Net Electricity Consumption by Region,

Shares of Energy Use for Electricity Generation, Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004 and International Energy Outlook 2003 Installed Nuclear Capacity, IEO2004 vs. IEO2003

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004 World Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region,

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004 World Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Fossil Fuel Type,

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004 Carbon Dioxide Intensity for Selected Countries and Regions, 2001 and 2025

International Energy Outlook 2004 indicates that over the next 24 years … Energy use will grow fastest in the developing world Oil remains the dominant fuel type Natural gas will be the fastest-growing primary energy source Resources will be sufficient to meet demand through 2025 Carbon dioxide emissions will continue to grow Electricity will increase rapidly in the developing world Coal will remain the predominant fuel for electric power generation, but gas’ importance will grow Developing Asia will expand its use of nuclear power