June 12, 2006 JOSEPH ROMM Global Warming: A Boost to Nuclear Power The Boot to Nuclear Hydrogen

CLIMATE BOTTOM LINE Most warming goes into oceans & poles Super-hurricanes are now the norm 10 more years of inaction = 4° to 6+° F warming  Greenland goes (20+ feet of sea level rise) 20 years = 6° to 10+° F warming  Serious Antarctic ice loss (80+ feet) Sea level rise 6 to 12 inches per decade possible

At 550 ppm, 60% of top permafrost goes. At 690, 90% (lt. blue) (Lawrence, NCAR, 2005) Tundra C ≈ Atmo C Much of it CH4 Not in IPCC models TUNDRA FEEDBACK

TIME FOR DELAY HAS RUN OUT We’re at 380 ppm CO2, rising 2+ ppm/yr If 500 & rising in 2050, plan on 700+ in 2100 Global emissions must peak ~2025 We must cut CO2 emissions >50% by We must stop building traditional coal plants We must have average new car 60 mpg in 2040

New Coal Build by Decade Source: IEA, WEO >$1 trillion in misallocated capital

Unconventional Oil is Climate Disaster Tar Sands: Use CH4 to make C-intensive fuel Coal-to-Oil: Double the CO2 emissions  Still a bad idea with carbon capture Enhanced Oil Recovery diverts captured CO2  Should NOT be valued as geologic storage Shale: 1.2 GW for 100,000 barrels a day

The 7 Barriers to AFVs 1) High first cost for vehicle 2) Storage (i.e. limited range) 3) Safety and liability 4) High fueling cost (compared to gasoline) 5) Limited fuel stations: Chicken & egg problem 6) Not a cost-effective pollution-reducer 7) Tough competition: Hybrids

The Hype About Hydrogen “Total time to noticeable impact … is likely to be more than 50 years.” —Heywood, MIT, 7/05 “If I told you ‘never,’ would you be upset?” Toyota’s Bill Reinert on when H2 replaces gas, 1/05 “Forget hydrogen, forget hydrogen, forget hydrogen.” — James Woolsey, 1/06 After “CO2 emissions from electricity generation are virtually eliminated….” — Science, 7/03

Car of the Future: Plug in Hybrids 20-mile electric range, then reverts to hybrid Could displace half of gasoline Works best with carbon cap Blend in cellulosic ethanol Why use future clean electricity for H2?  Plug in uses electricity 3 to 4 times more efficiently  Make use of existing infrastructure/vehicles

Nuclear Hydrogen Fuel Costs Three Times More Than Nuclear Electricity (Idaho National Lab Analysis, 12/05)

David Barber, Nuclear Programs, INL, 3/05 “Not even nuclear energy can turn hydrogen into a winner.” “There certainly will not be an overabundance of clean energy to squander on an inefficient hydrogen loop, particularly when the same tasks can be accomplished directly with the original electricity. Not this century, anyway.”

2020 Vision Oil Prices at Current or Higher Levels Global desperation about global warming  Nuclear electricity resurgence very possible Hybrids the dominant vehicle platform Plug-in hybrids the rapidly emerging platform  H2 fuel cell vehicles probably a dead end No future for nuclear hydrogen