1. The Science of Global Warming What do we really know…. John Abraham jpabraham@stthomas.edu 651-962-5766 School of Engineering University of St. Thomas Audubon Society, October 6, 2013

2. Abraham The Basics…. Everyone Agrees…. Virtually everyone is in agreement about the following facts… The arctic is losing ice at an extremely rapid rate (Greenland & Antarctic also) Humans have caused a 40% increase in carbon dioxide Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas The poles are warming faster than other regions The ocean is becoming more acidic Glacier ice loss is widespread Greenhouse gas levels are higher than they’ve been in at least 800,000 years The earth has warmed by approximately 1.2F over the last 100 years The lower atmosphere has warmed at about the same rate as the earth The ocean is warming The earth is warmest in last 400 years (probably more than 2000 years) Audubon Society, October 6, 2013

3. Abraham The Basics…. Everyone Agrees…. Audubon Society, October 6, 2013

4. Abraham The Basics…. Greenhouse Gases 1. C.D. Keeling, R.B. Bacastow, A.E. Bainbridge, C.A. Ekdahl, P.R. Guenther, and L.S. Waterman, Atmospheric carbon dioxide variations at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii, Tellus, vol. 28, 538-551, 1976. 2. NOAA 2008.

5. Abraham The Basics…. What Is My Impact? Major sources of CO 2 emission are from electrical usage and from transportation. Electrical Sources: Coal is used to produce approximately 42% of U.S. electricity (33% of CO 2 emissions). 1 kilowatt-hour of electricity from coal releases 2 pounds of CO 2 gas. This is equivalent to 18 cubic feet of space. Transportation Sources: Burning one gallon of gas releases 20 pounds of CO 2 gas. This is equivalent to 173 cubic feet of space. Audubon Society, October 6, 2013

6. Abraham But is the Earth Really Warming? Hottest Years on Record: 2. 2005 6. 2002 7. 2003 8. 2006 9. 2004 (Goddard Institute for Space Science, 2013) 5. 1998 10. 2012 4. 2007 3. 2009 1. 2010 Audubon Society, October 6, 2013

7. Abraham But is the Earth Really Warming? Audubon Society, October 6, 2013

8. Abraham How Bad Will it Get? (IPCC 2007) K. Hayhoe

9. Abraham How Bad Will it Get? (IPCC 2007) K. Hayhoe

10. Abraham 1980 Extent2005 Extent Arctic Sea Ice Extent Equivalent Area Source: National Snow and Ice Data Center 2005 Arctic Ice Equivalent Region Gore, 2007

11. Abraham 2007 Extent Arctic Sea Ice Extent Equivalent Area Source: National Snow and Ice Data Center 2007 Arctic Ice Equivalent Region Gore, 2007

12. Abraham 2007 Extent Arctic Sea Ice Extent Equivalent Area Source: National Snow and Ice Data Center 2007 Arctic Ice Equivalent Region Gore, 2007 Since then, we lost ice equal to Texas

13. Abraham How Bad Will it Get? Images courtesy of Ted Scambos, (National Snow and Ice Data Center.) Audubon Society, October 6, 2013

14. Abraham How Bad Will it Get? Land-based ice losses… (J. Hansen, 2007) (Alpine Glacier, 1990 court. Munich Society for Environmental Research) Audubon Society, October 6, 2013

15. Abraham Adamello- Mandron Glacier Adamello Mandron Glacier, Alps Society for Ecological Research, Munich

16. Abraham Adamello Mandron Glacier, Alps Society for Ecological Research, Munich

17. Abraham How Bad Will it Get? Land-based ice losses… (Portage Glacier, 1914 and 2004) Audubon Society, October 6, 2013

18. Abraham How Bad Will it Get? Audubon Society, October 6, 2013

19. Abraham How Bad Will it Get?

20. Abraham How Bad Will it Get?

21. Abraham How Bad Will it Get?

22. Abraham How Bad Will it Get?

23. Abraham How Bad Will it Get? 2012 – third highest acreage burned in US Charles Greene Sci. Am. December 2012.

24. Abraham How Bad Will it Get? 2012 – third highest acreage burned in US Charles Greene Sci. Am. December 2012.

25. Abraham How Bad Will it Get? 2012 – third highest acreage burned in US Charles Greene Sci. Am. December 2012.

26. Abraham How Bad Will it Get? Audubon Society, October 6, 2013

27. Abraham How Bad Will it Get? Audubon Society, October 6, 2013

28. Abraham How Bad Will it Get? How much will ocean levels rise if: Greenland melts….. 7 meters (23 feet) West Antarctica melts….. 5 meters (17 feet) All of Antarctica melts….. 83 meters (270 feet) Audubon Society, October 6, 2013

29. Abraham How Bad Will it Get? Warmer temperatures will also lead to….. Lower crop yields, particularly in regions populated by subsistence farmers. Ocean acidification Redistribution of water (less in some areas, more in others). Increase of “extreme” weather events. (100-years floods occuring frequently). Potential increase of hurricanes (jury still out…) Increase of invasive species. Audubon Society, October 6, 2013

30. Abraham What Do We Do Now? (J. Hansen, 2007) The way forward is multi-pathed. (Pacala and Socolow, 2004) Audubon Society, October 6, 2013

31. Abraham What Do We Do Now? stop using this start using this Renewable energy gives us clean air and water, and home-grown energy sources that will never run out. So, why not? K. Hayhoe

32. Abraham Change is possible K. Hayhoe

33. Abraham

34. Scientists know that we are changing the climate, we’ve known for more than 150 years… We can solve this problem today, with today’s technology… We can help the environment, create jobs, generate energy, and improve national security… There is a cost to delayed action…

35. Abraham How Bad Will it Get? What can members of Audubon do? Talk about climate change (friends/family/colleagues) It is important to you The impacts matter to all of us Affects our way of life and the life of animals Take personal action It is not difficult to significantly reduce your own emissions Show people how simple changes make big impacts Tell our elected officials this issue matters to you Support groups like Audubon