The Global Climate Change Forum An Economic and Business Perspective Global Energy Services
Copyright 2005 Global Insight, Inc. 2 Can You Weather the Storm? Global climate change is one of the major issues of our time An Economics and Business Perspective 2Copyright 2005 Global Insight, Inc. Understand the Impact on your Supply Chain Understand the Impact on your Customers Influence the Public Policy Debate and Anticipate Regulatory Changes Position Your Company or Enterprise Identify Opportunities and Avoid Risks
Copyright 2005 Global Insight, Inc. 3 The Global Climate Change Forum Interactive Workshops & Meetings In-depth Sector Studies Covering Autos, Metals, Utilities, etc. 3Copyright 2005 Global Insight, Inc. Quarterly Reports and Issue Summaries A new service designed to provide the most complete view of the economic and political factors shaping the Global Climate Change debate
Copyright 2005 Global Insight, Inc. 4 Global Climate Change Will Affect Everyone
Copyright 2005 Global Insight, Inc. 5 The Automobile Industry Copyright 2005, Global Insight 5 Future design of vehicle drive trains Role and potential for hybrids Role and potential for hydrogen and fuel cells Impacts of C0 2 and other GHG emission controls Impacts on OEMs and component providers Economic impacts on other industries and the overall economy 5Copyright 2005 Global Insight, Inc.
6 The Metals Sector 6Copyright 2005 Global Insight, Inc. Mitigation options and costs on metals extraction and production Mitigation options and costs on electricity and energy supply Long-term technology changes in metals production Substitution of other materials (e.g. plastics, etc.) Economic impacts on other industries and the economy
Copyright 2005 Global Insight, Inc. 7 The Electric Utility Sector Copyright 2005, Global Insight 7 Implications for fuel choice (oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear, renewables) Role of new technologies for reducing GHG emission Application, costs, and effectiveness of clean coal technologies Application, costs, and effectiveness of carbon captures and sequestration Economic impacts on other industries and the economy 7Copyright 2005 Global Insight, Inc.
8 The Correlation Between Emissions and Concentrations is Clear … ppm mtonnes HawaiiAntarctic Ice CoresCarbon Emissions
Copyright 2005 Global Insight, Inc. 9 … But Causation Remains Controversial The link between atmospheric concentrations and climate change is still controversial Time Relative Temperature Mann et al McIntyre & McKitrick
Copyright 2005 Global Insight, Inc. 10 CO 2 Is Not the Only Problem Source: Dr. James Hansen, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies Methane and Soot Are Major “Forcing” Pollutants As Well
Copyright 2005 Global Insight, Inc. 11 The Problem is Not Intractable Viable Options for Reducing Carbon Emissions Based on: S. Pacala and R. Socolow, “Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem, with Technologies Available Today,” Science, 305, August, 2004, pp
Copyright 2005 Global Insight, Inc. 12 Examples of Mitigation Options by Sector
Copyright 2005 Global Insight, Inc. 13 Transition Targets Must be Established… A declining schedule of carbon dioxide emissions An increasing Carbon Dioxide tax An increasing schedule of auto efficiency standards An increasing schedule of appliance and building efficiency standards Initial inaction will prevent the attainment of longer term goals at reasonable costs 13Copyright 2005 Global Insight, Inc.
14 Cost Effectiveness Curves Over Time Significant reductions can be achieved in the long run at reasonable costs, but not in the short run. Steps must be taken now to achieve these long-term reductions.
Copyright 2005 Global Insight, Inc. 15 The Global Climate Change Forum 15Copyright 2005 Global Insight, Inc. Executive Summaries and Assessments Quarterly Executive-Style Reports Signpost Updates and Issue Alerts Annual Forum Meeting with Special Guest Speakers Web-based Discussions Economic, Policy, and Political Focus In-depth Sector Analyses Topics Prioritized by Group Technical and Economic Analysis Cost-Effectiveness Curves Industry and Macroeconomic Analysis Interactive Workshops Four Sectors per Year
Copyright 2005 Global Insight, Inc. 16 In-Depth Special Sector Coverage 16 Automobile & Truck Transportation Airline Industry Metals and Mining Electricity Utilities Energy: Oil and Gas Energy: Nuclear Power Agriculture Abatement Options Forecast Products and Paper Consumer Goods Global Construction *Topics will be prioritized by Forum participants Copyright 2005 Global Insight, Inc.
17 The Project Team
Copyright 2005 Global Insight, Inc – Multiple studies on the Impact of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme on Participating Industries 2003 – The Economic Impact on Italy of Implementing the Kyoto Protocol 2002 – The Economic Impact of Greenhouse Gas Reductions on Selected EU Countries 2000 – Global Warming: Capital Stock Constraints on Meeting Near-term Targets 1999 – The Kyoto Protocol: Can Annex B Countries Meet Their Commitments? 1998 – The Impact of Meeting the Kyoto Protocol on Energy Marketing and the Economy 1998 – Global Warming: The High Cost of the Kyoto Protocol National and State Impacts Global Warming: The Economic Cost of Early Action Drawing from Years of Experience
Copyright 2005 Global Insight, Inc. 19 Global Insight’s Distinctive Competence Much excellent work has already been done. HOWEVER – Collectively this work has not focused adequately on the economics. THE ADVANTAGE The microeconomic costs and effects of each mitigation option The macroeconomic effects of policy alternatives Industry expertise in: EnergyConstructionChemicals AutosManufacturingIT SteelTransportationand others… 19Copyright 2005 Global Insight, Inc.
20 We Practically Invented the Industry Consistently Named Among the Top Economic Forecasters in the World
Copyright 2005 Global Insight, Inc. 21 Expertise Built Upon a Solid Foundation
Copyright 2005 Global Insight, Inc. 22 For Additional Information … Gil Rodgers, Senior Director Global Insight, Lexington, MA Peter Seager, Principal Global Insight, London