General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people 1 Population Projections Andrew White, Assistant Statistician General Register Office for Scotland Centre for Housing Market Analysis (CHMA) 29 January 2009

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people 2 Presentation Overview Housing Need & Demand Assessment Guidance (HNDA) 2008 refers to GROS population projections. It also refers to GROS household projections which are based on these. Methodology and assumptions Strengths and weaknesses of (GROS) projections Results and available data Developments and future plans

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people 3 Key points Projections produced every two years for Scotland, Council areas, NHS Board areas and National Parks; split by age and sex Results available at: scotland.gov.uk/statistics/publications-and-data/popproj Use latest population estimates as base year latest projections are 2006-based, mostly published Jan ‘08 Expect to publish 2008-based in Dec ’09 / Jan ’10 Controlled to be consistent with national projections produced by ONS Results published for up to 25 years ahead

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people 4 Calculating population projections Start with population for base year Add on births, subtract deaths, account for migration Age everyone on by a year Repeat Assumptions about future fertility, mortality and migration required These are based on last few years data as well as a consultation exercise Local area assumptions are consistent with Scotland level assumptions

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people 5 Assumptions: Fertility & Mortality Fertility –The Scottish Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is assumed to fall after an initial increase –Local fertility levels are calculated by comparing the number of births that would be expected if the Scotland level fertility rates applied to the number of births observed over the last 5 years. Mortality –Scottish mortality rates are assumed to continue to fall but remain higher than in the rest of the UK –Local mortality levels are calculated by comparing the number of deaths that would be expected if the Scotland level fertility rates applied to the number of deaths observed over the last 5 years.

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people 6 Assumption: Migration Migration –No comprehensive system measuring migration so estimates of migration based on survey data and best proxy data available Long term international Migration (>12 months) - International Passenger Survey (IPS) Rest UK Migration / within Scotland – NHS Central Register (NHSCR) and Community Health Index (CHI) –From 2013 there is projected be an annual net inflow of 8,500 people to Scotland –Migration assumptions for areas within Scotland are based on migration over last 5 years controlled to the Scotland total. Local authorities are then consulted and assumptions amended appropriately.

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people 7 Strengths/Weaknesses Strengths(?) of GROS projections –Have access to best available data –Consistent across Scotland and with National projections –Easy to understand Weaknesses(?) of GROS projections –Migration data –do not take account of predicted changes in house building, other planned policy changes or changes in economic circumstances Weaknesses of projections in general –Projections less reliable for smaller areas –Projections become more uncertain the further ahead they go

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people 8 Projected population as % of estimated population, based

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people 9 Projected population as % of estimated population, based

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people 10 Population, Scotland, actual and projected,

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people 11 Actual and projected total population, Scotland, under the based principal and selected variant projections,

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people 12 Results of the 2006-Based Sub-National Projections

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people 13 Most councils adjacent, or close to, Edinburgh City are projected to increase in size whereas other large urban areas are projected to decline

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people 14 Projected percentage population change (2006-based), Council area,

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people 15 Projected population change by age group, , City of Edinburgh

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people 16 Projected population change by age group, , Dumfries & Galloway

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people 17 Projected population change by age group, , Inverclyde

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people 18 Starting age structure

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people 19 Migrants as percentage of population by age, , City of Edinburgh

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people 20 Migrants as percentage of population by age, , Dumfries & Galloway

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people 21 Migrants as percentage of population by age, , Inverclyde

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people 22 Developments ‘Tayside Report’ Improved migration data on GROS website Improve migration estimates: inter-departmental taskforce Data used to produce 2006-based sub-national projections has been made available in POPGROUP format Work ongoing to provide datazone level data and guidance to allow councils to produce sub-council projections Strategic Development Planning Authority area projections due later this year More Variant Projections?

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people 23 Summary Referred to in the HNDA guidance Usually produced every two years Available from for Council areas, NHS Board areas and National Parks by single year of age and sex 2008-based Sub-National Projections due late 2009 or early 2010 Consistent across Scotland and easy to interpret Trend-based so don’t account for changes in house building, policy or economic circumstances

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people 24 Contact information Andrew White Tel: GROS Customer services Tel:

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people 25 Population estimates compared to school census, Glasgow City

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people 26 Population estimates compared to school census, Orkney Islands

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people electorate as a percentage of 2007 population