Mississippi River Basin Fusion Team National HIC Meeting Thursday, July 9, 2009

 HPC QPF 95% Confidence Intervals  QPF Ensemble River Model Output Example  Background  Current Status  Future Plans 7/9/2009 2

3 HPC QPF 95% Confidence Intervals HPHPC QPF C QPF An HPC study found a good correlation between the absolute error in their 6-hour QPF and the corresponding spread in the QPF generated by the SREF. Given this relationship, they can determine the spread in the SREF QPFs and forecast the error in the corresponding HPC QPF. HPC QPF Maximum Absolute Error with 95% Confidence

4 July 12, 2007 Maximum QPF with 95% Confidence with 95% Confidence HPC QPF Maximum Absolute Error with 95% Confidence - = = HPC QPF Maximum Absolute Error with 95% Confidence + Minimum QPF with 95% Confidence = = HPC QPF

7/9/ Selected QPF values are displayed. QPF is color coded with legend. SVG graphics display traces interactively. Selected time series will raise to top as bold line.

Timeline Mar-04HPC begins issuance of QPF Confidence Interval (CI) QPF Jan-06NCRFC (Halquist) presents use of HPC QPF CI in river forecasts Mar-06Beta testing at a few of NCRFC's sites Apr-07NCRFC and MBRFC provide QPF ensembles to WFOs via intranet Jun-07NCRFC (DeWeese) provides training to WFOs Jun-07NCRFC provides St. Louis Corps with QPF Ensemble River Forecasts via LDM Jul-07 Nat'l HPM conference CR breakout session - WFOs request preliminary raw model river forecast output Jul-07USACE MVD requests QPF ensemble output from LMRFC Aug-07NCRFC and MBRFC provide WFOs with SHEF-encoded QPF ensembles Oct-07 In response to USACE request, Short-term QPF Ensemble River Forecast Team formed (5 RFCs, 3 regions) 7/9/2009 6

Timeline… continued Feb-08NCRFC requests computer hardware to speed up processing May-08MBRFC provides QPF Ensemble River Forecasts to USACE Jul-08OHRFC, ABRFC & LMRFC provide QPF ensemble to complete MS B asin Sep Midwest Flood Assessment team notes ensembles as best practice Oct-08AOP Item to move ensembles to internet for EM and navigation users Feb-09 CRH ISD and SFD submit proposal to spending committee to purchase computers for both MBRFC and NCRFC Feb-09Spending proposal denied; RD suggests reviewing options to centralize May-09 CRH meets with NCRFC, MBRFC and LMRFC to discuss options to improve processing of ensembles Jun-09 New plan to explore centralized processing was accepted by CR spending committee 7/9/2009 7

 NCRFC began project in 2006 to meet WFO requests  Customers have given very positive feedback ◦ Fulfills MVS need at St. Louis for barge industry ◦ Used in daily WFO operations and EM briefings ◦ Used by NWD to assist in managing Spring Pulse  Operational experience shows gross over- simulation has not been a problem  Limited verification at NCRFC shows 95% max QPF verifies more than 5% of time  Database processing currently takes up to four hours (originally took 1-2 hours)

 Determine optimum, efficient method to generate QPF Ensemble Model Output in timely fashion (within 30 minutes) at NCRFC, MBRFC & LMRFC ◦ Looking at centralized operations at CRH ◦ O & M must be sustainable ◦ Determine option by end of August 2009  Provide adequate background materials/training to ensure max traces are understood  Place watermark disclaimer on graphics  Provide QPF ensemble river model output to EMs via unadvertised url 7/9/2009 9

 Option #1 Upload XML output to Centralized SVGA Application Server. Centralized SVGA Application Server will output SVGA files to CRH file server and will be served from CRH HTTP services.  Option #2 Process SVGA graphics at each RFC and upload finished SVGA graphics to CRH file server. SVGA graphics will be served from CRH HTTP services  Option #3 Process SVGA graphics at each RFC and upload finished SVGA graphics to RFC file server. SVGA graphics will be served from RFC HTTP services  Option #4 Do Nothing 7/9/