WCRP/CLIVAR perspectives for ETCCDI Howard Cattle International CLIVAR Project Office, National Oceanography Centre, Southampton, UK (ETCCDI May 2008)

GEWEX 1988  2012 SPARC 1992  2011 WOCE CLIVAR 1998  2013 TOGA WGNE WGSF WGCM IPAB WOAP WMP ACSYS/CliC 1994–2003/2000  SOLAS > CliC 2000  2015

WCRP Strategic framework Coordinated Observation and Prediction of the Earth System Developed by the Joint Scientific Committee (JSC) for WCRP, it’s governing body Reiterates WCRP objectives to determine the predictability of climate and the effect of human activities on climate Seeks to facilitate analysis and prediction of Earth System variability and change for practical applications of direct relevance, benefit and value to society

WCRP Strategic Plan WCRP Cross Cutting Topics Seasonal Prediction Monsoons Decadal Prediction Climate Extremes Anthropogenic climate change Chemistry and Climate IPY Sea level rise CLIVAR: contributions to all areas Development of Earth System Models (with IGBP) “Seamless prediction” (across all timescales) Maintain/develop sustained observing system Integration of models and data Developing links to applications

JSC-28 (Zanzibar, March 2007) Reviewed progress with the core projects, WCRP panels and working groups and in other relevant organizations (e.g WCP, IGBP) Reviewed initial progress of and made decisions on the“cross cutting” topics”. Made decisions on budget allocations: WCRP finances under severe pressure Agreed that the WCRP Core projects (CLIVAR, GEWEX, SPARC and CliC) should continue to their agreed “sunset dates” Except for ACC, agreed that the projects should provide the management focus for the cross cuts and appointed “JSC oversight groups”.

ACC Next generation of climate change experiments including “near term prediction (decades - see below); modelling aspects of climate change detection JSC group +WCRP Support Office, Paris AC&C Tropospheric & stratospheric chemistry IGAC/SPARC IPOs Monsoons International Monsoon Study - Asian Monsoon years Year of Tropical Convection CLIVAR & GEWEX IPOs jointly; Extreme climate events Being defined - JSC-29 special session CLIVAR & GEWEX IPOs jointly; Seasonal prediction (TFSP->WGSIP) Climate System Historical Forecast Experiment CLIVAR - WGSIP (-> ICPO support) Decadal prediction Near term climate prediction (decadal, to ~2030), Atlantic MOC activities CLIVAR (WGCM/WGSIP) (-> ICPO support) IPY WCRP contributions to IPY, including CLIVAR SO Panel’s lead in Climate of Antarctica and the Southern Ocean cluster CliC IPO Sea level Successful workshop; future activities tbd J Church

Outline agenda: JSC-29 Arcachon, France, 31 March-4 April Welcome, introduction 2.Review of WCRP cross cutting activities with special session on climate extremes (1 + 1/2 days) 3.Review of WCRP core projects (3/4 day) 4.Review of WCRP WGs and Panels (WGCM, WGNE, WOAP …) (0.4 day) 5.Review of other projects and activities (ESSP, START, THORPEX…) (1/4 day) 6.Discussion of WCRP post 2013 (3/4 day) 7.Executive sessions etc including budgets (1 day) 8.Science lectures (1/4 day)

JSC-29 “Climate Extremes Session’’ Overall goals for the session: –Determine what steps WCRP can/should take to meet user requirements –Determine what WCRP will do to impact the research agenda on extremes. 1. Introduction – A. Busalacchi 2. Stakeholder needs a.Stakeholder (CIRUN Workshop) meeting outcomes – T. Busalacchi b.Re-insurance needs – J Slingo 3. Work of ETCCDI 4. Other WCRP research priorities vis-à-vis extremes a.CEOP – S. Sorooshian b.Drought – J. Hurrell c.Modelling – T. Palmer 5. Climate Extremes cross cut - summary of proposals to date - H Cattle 6. Panel discussion on how to progress research on climate extremes and where WCRP should focus its efforts.

Objectives of the cross cut Summarize, compare and assess definition(s) of climate extremes and develop a common framework. Design an intercomparison framework to assess models, observations to evaluate changes in climate extremes Accelerate progress on prediction of climate extremes developing capabilities and products facilitating practical applications Assess and improve the observational and dataset framework for study of global extremes Determine how extremes are changing/varying and why. Understand the processes controlling extreme climate Build capacity in the interpretation of model outputs and observational datasets with regard to climate extremes Develop climate indices for the study and monitoring of extremes

Issues emerging from AGU discussion (participants Lisa Alexander, Gabi Hegerl, Neville Nicholls, Simon Tett and Francis Zwiers The scale discrepancy between models and observations Improving model representations of extremes “Internal consistency” of extremes, e.g: –Understanding how modes of variability influence extremes –The dynamical situations leading to extremes “Extreme” extremes (e.g. hurricanes) and small scale weather extremes (tornadoes, hail, thunderstorms…) Data quality and availability Detectability and predictability of extremes

Present WCRP extremes foci CCl/CLIVAR/JCOMM ETCCDI activity –Development of new indices/develop global indices database –ETCCDI meeting (KNMI, May 2008) to include joint workshop with ENSEMBLES (Focus on “Extremes in a changing climate” and workshop on “”issues of scaling” - how do we adequately compare observed extremes with model output?) Proposed near term (decadal cross cut, out to ~2030) climate experiments aims to give guidance on the changing risk of extremes WGCM: International detection and attribution group on design of C20 simulations for next IPCC are addressing issues related to detection of extremes GEWEX/CEOP extremes study: Canadian drought a focus US CLIVAR-led activity on US drought (US focus) GEWEX/UNESCO global heavy rainfall product at 24 & 48 hour accumulation periods, funded by NASA, NOAA and UNESCO Sea level extremes, sea ice extremes etc… Do we need to consider ocean extremes? How can we bring these together into a coordinated cross-WCRP effort, adding value?

JSC recommendations, decisions and actions - climate extremes 1.GEWEX and CLIVAR to engage each other to participate in forthcoming workshops in climate extremes. 2.Form a task force on Climate Extremes including representation not only from GEWEX and CLIVAR but also from CliC and SPARC, IGBP, WWRP(THORPEX) and IRDR to determine focus and deliverables for this crosscut. Establish links and consider cooperation with climate watch. 3.Recommend participation of representatives of WCRP projects in ETCCDI…

Concluding remarks Climate Extremes cross cut still needs to be defined; it should aim at integrating across WCRP ETCCDI views on how this should be done as well as reactions to the JSC decisions on the cross cut where they impact on ETCCDI are welcomed CLIVAR SSG-15 (Sep 2007) “requested: ETCCDI to seek to provide wider range of indices on their website to cover both atmosphere and ocean indices and to take the lead in coordinating CLIVAR indices efforts (including those by CLIVAR Panels) with those of OOPC and others as appropriate”. ETCCDI may wish to consider how best to meet this request

Thank you

CLIVAR SSG-15 Geneva, September 2007 Chaired by Tim Palmer Howard Cattle ICPO, NOCS (ETCCDI, May 2008)

SSG-15 outline agenda 1.Welcome, introduction 2.Sponsor and other programme/project input (including WMO, OOPC, WCRP Core projects etc) 3.Review of key progress and issues from chairs of CLIVAR Panels and Working Groups 4.Review of JSC cross cutting topics and plenary discussion 5.Reports from CLIVAR-affiliated projects, national contributions and ICPO 6.Breakout groups and plenary discussion based around CLIVAR Road Map (SSG-14) 7.Science lectures (N Gruber and M Beniston) 8.Actions and administrative matters

CLIVAR funding allocations for 2008 CLIVAR: CLIVAR Core 9.2% 50,140 50% Extremes 1.5% 8,175 50% IMS (Monsoons) 3.4% 18,530 Decadal prediction 1.1% 5,995 Total82,840 JSC allocations are said to be for “real outcomes” The “CLIVAR Core” allocation of ~CHF50k is some 25% of that in previous years (~CHF400k per biennium) JPS pursuing further income but allocation tbd by JSC ACC allocation 48,505k; Sea Level 5,995k; Modelling 18,530k Extremes and Monsoon cross cut spends tbd with GEWEX (and … ?)

Some possible ways forward Option (0): Keep present structure and try to continue on with it

Some options considered for reorganization Keep present structure Agree to terminate CLIVAR early Reduce the number of panels by closing some Compress panels into a smaller number (e.g. single ocean panel) Reorganise around set of CLIVAR Science Themes Reorganize around JSC cross cuts …

SSG-15 - outcomes CLIVAR structure and funding Agreed not to restructure CLIVAR in response to the announced reduction of WCRP funds for 2008 feeling that that a major organizational change would disrupt progress Decided to leave the structure as it is out to at least the 2010 timeframe at which time the project would be restructured to accommodate a final analysis and assessment phase1. Recognized that WCRP support for meetings will be minimal. Panels and Working Groups will be required to seek other support for meetings and to seek to reduce costs by arranging meeting in the margins of Workshops/Conferences. Agreed SSG would provide guidance on allotment of WCRP funds for meetings

SSG-15 - outcomes Future plans CLIVAR to seek major presence at the 2009 World Climate Conference-3 (J Mitchell, M Visbeck now on organising committee; M Visbeck chair of programme panel) SSG co-chairs to press the Chair and vice Chair of the JSC summarizing SSG concerns about the urgent need to develop a vision for WCRP beyond the sunset dates of the current projects (possible feed into WCC-3) Seek to hold the 2 nd CLIVAR Science Conference in 2011 with a final closure meeting in Engage all CLIVAR panels and working groups in providing assessments of achievements and identification of major outstanding questions for input to the 2 nd CLIVAR Science Conference.

SSG-15 - outcomes OceanObs’09 Fully endorsed the efforts and plans for the OceanObs/09 Symposium & made suggestions on format. Asked that CLIVAR Panels and Working Groups work with the organizers to ensure that the role(s) of CLIVAR science and scientists are fully represented.

Thank you

Areas of future research identified in JSC-29 paper Continued development of the CEOP extremes activity Coordination of wider drought research with US drought programme Encourage activity to understand how modes of variability influence extremes and what dynamical situations lead to them Seek to reduce uncertainties of model simulation of extremes (Modelling Summit expects to address this) Improve methods of interpreting model output, reanalyses and satellite products - how do we best compare models and data? Develop consistent definitions of extremes between between modellers and observations/scientists and practitioners Establish regional projects - workshops bringing together observationalists, regional modellers and planners/decision makers aimed at improving the region’s ability to reduce risk from climate- related disasters…