The State of Food and Agriculture 2004 FAO Council Hundred and Twenty-seventh Session November 2004

2 The world is not on track in the fight against hunger … Millions Point estimates prepared in 2003 Target Millions Latest available point estimates Undernourished People in Developing Countries 1999 – million

3 Change in numbers of undernourished in developing countries from to

4 Reduction Change in numbers of undernourished in developing countries from to

5 Reduction Increase Change in numbers of undernourished in developing countries from to

6 Progress and setback Change in numbers of undernourished in developing countries from to (millions) IncreaseReduction China Decrease of 58 million - 37

7 Food emergency hotspots Major armed conflict (Oct 2004) Hunger hotspots in 2004

8 World agricultural production increased in Agriculture Crops Livestock % Average annual growth

9 Production in developing countries outpaces developed countries Developed countries Developing countries % Average annual growth in agricultural production

10 Cereal production meets utilization /9192/9394/9596/9798/9900/0102/0304/05** Production Utilization Million tonnes **: Forecast

11 As cereal stocks fall, prices rise Cereal price index Index = * Stock to utilization ratio (%) *: Forecast

12 Commodity prices have recovered * Meat Cereals Oils Foodstuffs Index = 100 *: 10-month average

13 Global agricultural exports resume growth trend Agricultural exports Billion US$

14 Supermarkets are growing rapidly in developing countries Source: Reardon et al. Supermarket share of retail food sales % South America East Asia (excl. China) Central Europe South Africa China (urban) Guatemala* *: 1995 and 2002

15 Trade integration can support food security Countries by % population undernourished Ag imports + Ag exports / Ag GDP <2.5% 2.5-4% 5-19% 20-34% >34%

16 Dependence on agriculture is greater in those countries where hunger is most prevalent % of population who depend on agriculture for their livelihood <2.5% % % % >= 35% Countries by % population undernourished

17 Investment in agriculture lags where hunger is most prevalent <2.5% % % % >= 35% Capital stock per agricultural worker (constant 1995 US$) Countries by % population undernourished

18 Public expenditure fails to reflect the importance of agriculture <2.5% % % % >= 35% average * Agricultural orientation index *: or most recent Countries by % population undernourished

19 Development assistance does not target the neediest countries <2.5% % % % >= 35% External assistance to agriculture (constant 1995 US$ per agricultural worker) Countries by % population undernourished

20 Conclusions Agricultural production is growing strongly in developing countries Recent commodity price increases reversing Progress in fighting hunger continues in many countries, but others are falling behind Investment in agriculture effective in reducing hunger But these investments are not being made in the neediest countries

22 Development assistance does not target the neediest countries <2.5% % % % >= 35% External assistance to agriculture, concessional and non-concessional (constant 1995 US$ per agricultural worker) % of population undernourished

23 Natural disasters like desert locusts still take a huge toll Latest situation (15 Oct 2004) Swarms Hoppper bands

24 World agricultural production increased in 2003 % Average annual growth Agriculture Crops Livestock

25 Cereal stocks remain level ** Rest of the world China Ratio Million tonnes%

26 Cereal consumption in developing countries is declining % Share of cereals in total consumption in developing countries

27 Development assistance is not growing Latin America and Caribbean Africa Asia Transition countries Others * Commitments of external assistance to agriculture by main recipient regions (at constant 2000 billion US$)

28 Undernourishment has a huge cost in human terms 40 0 % of the population undernourished < => 35 Under five mortality (per 1 000)