Integration Across Social and Natural Sciences: A Social Science Perspective Matt Berman EPSCoR All Hands Meeting May 2009

Integration in EPSCoR Phase III From the proposal: "Integration begins with EPSCoR faculty and students in the individual research components who work together to define the issues (see research component descriptions)....“ Integration core pulls component science together. Tools for integration Regional working groups – dynamics of Alaska social-ecological systems at the regional scale Agent-based modeling -- simulate hypothetical dynamics of systems at different scales based on rules for interacting agents

How to encourage broader and deeper participation? “Sustainability of rural communities" or "resilience of social- ecological systems" too vague or too theoretical? Challenge: develop specific questions that research projects could address (through modeling and/or regional integrative studies) Research ideas emerge from bottom up through collaboration of 3 to 5 people from different disciplines.

Proposed Four-Step Process: 1. Start with stylized facts -- empirical observations or model projections that are generally true. 2. What problem do the stylized facts suggest for science and society? 3. What specific research questions address the problem? –Engaging science questions for multiple disciplines –For social scientists: How might local observation and/or intepretation provide data or insight into environmental change? What human activities (private or public decisions) influence environmental change? How will people adapt to environmental change? 4. What scales – time and space – are appropriate to address the question and bring disciplines together?

Example from Erica Hill 1.Stylized facts: current walrus distribution restricted relative to historical evidence; humans took primarily females with calves. 2.Research question: Did humans overexploit walrus? 3.Specific questions -Did climate variation affect carrying capacity for walrus? -How sensitive is walrus population dynamics to sex and age-specific mortality? -Is there evidence that a decline in walrus abundance was associated with emergence of whaling? 4.Time and spatial scales? 1.Time scale: several centuries 2.Spatial scale: Chukchi Sea?

Example 1. Caribou populations increased in the 1980s across the Arctic, but are now decreasing in most places. Nicolson and Russell, unpublished data Relative herd sizes of world wild Rangifer herds with 3 and 6 year running averages. Warming climate associated with increasing herds in 1980s and 1990s, but most herds decreasing after 2000.

Example 2. Global Climate Models used to project climate change and shape global climate policy underestimate the rate of arctic sea ice loss. Adapted from Stroeve et al., 2007 September Sea Ice Extent: IPCC 4th Assessment Model Runs vs. Observations

Example 3. A new model projection (Shindell and Faluvegi, 2009) suggests that black carbon and sulfate aerosols emitted in the northern temperate zone may explain half or more of arctic warming in the past 30 years. Shindell, D., and G. Faluvegi, 2009: Climate response to regional radiative forcing during the twentieth century. Nature Geosci., 2,

Example 4. Arctic sea level appears to be rising faster than global average sea level. Proshutinsky et al., 2008

Integration Exercise Example 1. Caribou populations increased in the 1980s across the Arctic, but are now decreasing in most places. Example 2. Global Climate Models used to project climate change and shape global climate policy underestimate the rate of arctic sea ice loss. Example 3. A new model projection suggests that black carbon and sulfate aerosols emitted in the northern temperate zone may explain half or more of arctic warming in the past 30 years. Example 4. Arctic sea level appears to be rising faster than global average sea level. Start with example stylized fact What problem do the stylized facts suggest for science and society? What specific research questions address the problem? –Questions across disciplines –Social question How might local observation and/or intepretation provide data or insight into environmental change? What human activities (private or public decisions) influence environmental change? How will people adapt to environmental change? What time and space scales address the question and bring disciplines together?