Firsts Insights into Preliminary Results on Demographics & Economy Where is the Baseline bringing us in 2030? ESPON MC Policy Workshop Luxembourg (March 2013) Roberta Capello (POLIMI, Milano) Andreu Ulied, Lead Partner (MCRIT S.L. Barcelone)

No major changes in past trends No emerging breaking technologies “Politics as Usual” What’s a Baseline Scenario?

The Baseline “anchors” future explorations! What’s a Baseline Scenario?

Where is Baseline bringing us?: to Growing Disparities 1.Mobile Population 2.Divergent Economies 3.Social Inequity 4.Reactive Values 5.Limited Innovation 6.Expensive Energy 7.Subverted Proximities 8.Polarised Development 9.Hybrid Geographies 10.Europe of Two Speeds

Where is Baseline bringing us?: to Growing Disparities 1.Mobile Population 2.Divergent Economies 3.Social Inequity 4.Reactive Values 5.Limited Innovation 6.Expensive Energy 7.Subverted Proximities 8.Polarised Development 9.Hybrid Geographies 10.Europe of Two Speeds

Total Population: From 518 to 539 millions (ESPON Space)

Total Population: From 518 to 539 millions (ESPON Space)

Aging: From 26% to 47% pop >65 years /16-64 years (ESPON Space)

Total GDP : 1,89% annual growth rate (EU27)

GDP/Capita : 1,9% annual growth rate (EU27)

GDP per capita (% in relation to EU27 average)

505 to 514 million inhabitants 2,72% anual GDP growth

505 to 514 million inhabitants 2,72% anual GDP growth 514 to 530 million inhabitants 1,89% anual GDP growth

Divergent population trends across Europe? Moderate Growth in Northern European Regions Moderate Growth in Central European Regions Reduction in Eastern European Regions Uncertain Growth in Southern European Regions Differences between large cities/more rural areas, inner/coastal areas End of the process of moderate growth and convergence? High Growth in Northern Countries Moderate Growth in Central Europe Eastern European Regions Slow and Polarised Growth Lasting Recession Impacts in Southern European Regions Regional Specificities seem to be more relevant? Baseline 2030 Preliminary Insights (to be further discussed)

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“Too seek Europe, is to make it! Europe exists through its search for the infinit -and this is what I call adventure” Zygmunt Bauman, “An Adventure called Europe”