1. // Territorial Reference Framework for Europe
ESPON seminar // Transforming territorial thinking through digitalisation // 6-7 December // Tallinn, Estonia

2. ESPON Territorial Reference Framework
Mission Statement:
“Facilitating a long-term scenario and visioning process
to inform the Territorial Agenda post2020”

3. ESPON Territorial Reference Framework
Consortium:
Strategic Advisory Forum:
Chaired by: Prof. Jacek Szlachta
Co-chaired by Marjorie Jouen 3

4. ESPON Territorial Reference Framework
Main activities (December June 2019)
Participatory process (lead SF)
Strategic Advisory Forum (policy-workshops at EPC, Brussels)
Consultation events (expert-workshops, venues tbc with ESPON EGTC)
Foresight/forecast update (lead MCRIT)
Baseline and exploratory scenarios
Assessment: JRC/RHOMULO (2050), MASST3 update and TIA.
Policy-analysis (lead EPC)
Territorial approach for future European policies
Governance process for a new Territorial Agenda post-2020

5. ESPON Territorial Reference Framework

6. Baseline and Scenario Analysis -”The future is not what it used to be”1
Baseline and Scenario Analysis -”The future is not what it used to be”

7. ESPON Territorial Reference Framework
Baseline and Scenario Analysis
Financial & Economic Crisis from 2008
Impact the South and East of Europe
Political Crisis from 2014
UK / Brexit
Ukraine / Scotland / Catalonia
Humanitarian Crisis from 2015
Refugees from Middle East
Migrants from South Mediterranean

8. Economic & Financial Crisis 2008
“We, here and now, the people” against “Cosmopolitan and technocratic elites”?
“Austerity” measures imposed by EC, ECB & IMF
Amazing mea culpa from the IMF’s chief economist
“Forecasters significantly underestimated the increase in unemployment and the decline in domestic demand associated with fiscal consolidation”.
Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers.
Blanchard, Olivier ; Leigh, Daniel
January 03, 2013 IMF Paper

9. Economic & Financial Crisis 2008
Baseline scenario: Regional Economic Growth (annual average growth)
GDP a.a.: 1,89 %
45 regions bellow 1,00 %
Annual average GDP rate over the period (2012)
Back to Core / Periphery paradigm?

10. Political Crisis from 2014
English “cities” versus “country” ?
Ireland and Scottland versus England?
Younger generations versus Older generations?
Utopia against Retropia?

11. Political Crisis from 2014

12. Political Crisis from 2014

14. Major of Madrid
Major of Barcelona

15. Humanitarian Crisis from 2015
Refugees : “Our borders” against “their freedom” ?, “We” against “the others”?

16. Humanitarian Crisis from 2015

17. Humanitarian Crisis from 2015
Baseline scenario: Demographic Growth (annual average growth)
Stable if no migration: from 514 to 530 inh.
And ageing: %>64 years 26% to 39%

18. ESPON Territorial Reference Framework
Neighborhood: Energy networks (solar, oil, gas, HV electricity)

19. ESPON Territorial Reference Framework
Technology versus Human Condition towards “Humans” againts “Humanoids”?

20. 2
Mid-term policy recomendations: Insights towards a new ”Territorial Agenda” post 2020

21. ESPON Territorial Reference Framework
Building up the new Agenda process from:
Territorial Agenda 2020 (2011)
Territorial Agenda 2010 (2007)
Guiding Principles for Sustainable Spatial Development (2000)
European Spatial Development Perspective (1999)
European Spatial Planning Chart (1983)
To be developed by the Informal Council of Ministers responsible for Spatial Planning

22. ESPON Territorial Reference Framework
Collection of Territorial Visions at National and Transnational Scale

23. 2020

24. 2030

25. 2050

26. ESPON Territorial Reference Framework
Territorial priorities : « Inclusive, Smart and Sustainable Europe od Diverse Regions » (Agenda 2020)?
Promote polycentric and balanced territorial development
Encouraging integrated development in cities, rural and specific regions
Territorial integration in cross-border and transnational functional regions
Ensuring global competitiveness of the regions based on strong local economies
Improving territorial connectivity for individuals, communities and enterprises
Managing and connecting ecological, landscape and cultural values of regions

27. ESPON Territorial Reference Framework
Territorial Priorities: « Making Europe Open and Polycentric » (ESPON ET2050)
Connecting Europe globally
Co-development with Neighbouring regions
Promoting more endogeneous development
Balancing urban structures –increasing polycentrism
Sustainable use of resources

28. ESPON Territorial Reference Framework
What should be the key elements of the territorial approach in future European policies?
Just-in-time / Sectorial /Top-down EU Policies
Place-based / Integrated / Bottom-up Urban and Regional Policies

29. ESPON Territorial Reference Framework
What should be the key elements of the territorial approach in future policies?
Planning and implementing integrated European investment programs in functional and cross-border areas?
Providing support to local/ regional development strategies (institutional capacity and investment)?
Introducing territorial cooperation in the framework of mainstream European programs?

30. ESPON Territorial Reference Framework
Strategic Forum:
Chaired by: Prof. Jacek Szlachta:
Co-chaired by Marjorie Jouen 30

31. // Thank you Andreu Ulied, www. mcrit
// Thank you Andreu Ulied, MCRIT / (Barcelona) This presentation will be made available at: