Some thoughts on Theories of Change Duncan Green Oxfam GB November 2014

We need to get better at understanding and influencing change

The world as seen by our planning processes

The world we often work in

Different models of change for different systems

Implications of Complexity How do we plan when we don’t know what’s going to happen? How quickly do we notice when the world changes around us? Are we prepared to identify and use windows of opportunity?

New ways of working in a world of Uncertainty Fast Feedback Flexible responses: Searchers not (just) planners Focus on problems > solutions Then bring together all the actors to work out solutions together Enabling Environment > specifics Results for grown-ups

Some examples Venture Capitalists Convening and brokering Focus on Leadership and agency Positive Deviance – what works?

Oxfam’s emerging Theory of Change Similarities across all our work Change = redistribution of power Power analysis as the universal starting point Active citizens (esp women) and accountable states Oxfam often operates in the space between (convenor and catalyst) Coalitions of dissimilar groups Critical junctures

Power and Change Cycle Context analysis Power Analysis Select change strategies Implement & evaluate

Common Challenges for Oxfam change strategies Spotting Implementation Gaps Strong on partnerships, but often prefer ‘people like us’ Stakeholder blind spots (faith orgs, private sector, trad leaders) Weak on critical junctures and fast feedback Insider/outsider always difficult Patchy on quick wins and momentum Getting the right competencies is hard

Final Thoughts Theories not Theory Embrace uncertainty Beware magic bullets Assume you will be wrong, at least to begin with Getting the right Process and Players matters much more than finding ‘the Perfect Plan’

Thankyou!