COSMO WG4 Actvities Concentrated mainly on COSMO LEPS  presentation by Andrea Montani The rest of the activities have been absorbed into the advanced interpretation project

COSMO LEPS is run in time critical mode Can be used operationally, as is done in Italy, Switzerland, Germany. Disseminated to Hungary

3 Probabilistic Verification of COSMO-LEPS Forecasts with Synop Stations Andre Walser Conclusions of verification on synop stations by André Walser For low precipitation threshold skill up to +126h Clearly lower skill for high thresholds High spatial variability

Impact of the Alps on COSMO- LEPS Forecasts for the August 2005 Flood Event Andre Walser 1) and Cathy Hohenegger 2) 1) MeteoSwiss 2) Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich

5 Probabilistic Verification of COSMO-LEPS Forecasts with Synop Stations Andre Walser Heavy precipitation August 2005 © PLANAT, © BWG, © Luftwaffe

6 Probabilistic Verification of COSMO-LEPS Forecasts with Synop Stations Andre Walser Observed precipitation Probability precipitation > 100mm/72h

7 Probabilistic Verification of COSMO-LEPS Forecasts with Synop Stations Andre Walser COSMO-LEPS vs. ECMWF EPS

8 Probabilistic Verification of COSMO-LEPS Forecasts with Synop Stations Andre Walser COSMO-LEPS with and without Alps With AlpsWithout Alps Orography in the Alpine area set to 500 m if larger

9 Probabilistic Verification of COSMO-LEPS Forecasts with Synop Stations Andre Walser Synoptic With AlpsWithout Alps

10 Probabilistic Verification of COSMO-LEPS Forecasts with Synop Stations Andre Walser COSMO-LEPS Forecast Probabilities for 72-h precipitation sum > 100 mm ( UTC – UTC). With AlpsWithout Alps

11 Probabilistic Verification of COSMO-LEPS Forecasts with Synop Stations Andre Walser

12 Probabilistic Verification of COSMO-LEPS Forecasts with Synop Stations Andre Walser

13 Probabilistic Verification of COSMO-LEPS Forecasts with Synop Stations Andre Walser

14 Probabilistic Verification of COSMO-LEPS Forecasts with Synop Stations Andre Walser