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Verification Precipitation verification (overestimation): a common view of the behaviour of the LM, aLMo and LAMI Francis Schubiger and Pirmin Kaufmann,

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Presentation on theme: "Verification Precipitation verification (overestimation): a common view of the behaviour of the LM, aLMo and LAMI Francis Schubiger and Pirmin Kaufmann,"— Presentation transcript:

1 Verification Precipitation verification (overestimation): a common view of the behaviour of the LM, aLMo and LAMI Francis Schubiger and Pirmin Kaufmann, MeteoSwiss Uli Damrath, DWD Elena Oberto, Marco Turco, Paolo Bertolotto, ARPA Piedmont

2 Verification francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05 1 difference of mean monthly rain gauges in D and CH C. Schraff, DWD

3 Verification francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05 2 Verification of aLMo Winter 03/04 over Switzerland full line: obs (ANETZ); dashed: black: aLMo, red: LM

4 Verification francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05 3 Verification of aLMo Winter 02/03 over Switzerland full line: obs (ANETZ); dashed: black: aLMo, red: LM

5 Verification francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05 4 Verification of the cloud ice testsuite in aLMo from 04.02-19.03.2004 full line: obs (ANETZ); dashed: black: aLMo blue: aLMo-cloud ice, red: LM

6 Verification francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05 5 Verification of aLMo Winter 04/05 over Switzerland full line: obs (ANETZ); dashed: black: aLMo, red: LM

7 Verification francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05 6

8 Verification francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05 7 Verification with raingauges in D and CH

9 Verification francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05 8 Verification with raingauges in CH

10 Verification francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05 9 Verification of aLMo Winter 04/05 SYNOP

11 Verification francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05 10 Precipitation: scores of aLMo Winter 00/01 verification with 12h-sums from SYNOP

12 Verification francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05 11 Precipitation: scores of aLMo Winter 01/02 verification with 12h-sums from SYNOP

13 Verification francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05 12 Precipitation: scores of aLMo Winter 02/03 verification with 12h-sums from SYNOP

14 Verification francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05 13 Precipitation: scores of aLMo Winter 03/04 verification with 12h-sums from SYNOP

15 Verification francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05 14 Precipitation: scores of aLMo Winter 04/05 verification with 12h-sums from SYNOP

16 Verification Latest results in the precipitation verification over Piedmont Elena Oberto, Marco Turco, Paolo Bertolotto (*) ARPA Piemonte, Torino, Italy Eyeball verification: seasonal cum maps of D+1 forecast Seasonal statistical indices Special focus over last winter (DJF’05): Statistical indices for increasing thresholds Scatter plot of daily precipitation over each basins: seasonal and monthly

17 Verification francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05 16

18 Verification francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05 17 Prec (mm) ALMO LAMI LOKAL DJF 2004 OBSERVED

19 Verification francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05 18

20 Verification francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05 19 Scale (mm)

21 Verification francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05 20 OBSERVED Prec (mm) aLMo 00 LM-DWD 00 LAMI 00 Verification over Piedmont ; winter 04/05

22 Verification francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05 21 Seasonal trend of BIAS and ETS Threshold=10mm/24h Forecast time: +00/+24. The error bars indicates 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of resampled distribution, applied to the "reference" model. Djf’05 too much dry  no statistic  in the next slides there is a special focus LoKal aLMo LAMI

23 Verification francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05 22 Seasonal trend of BIAS and ETS Threshold=10mm/24h Forecast time: +24/+48. The error bars indicates 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of resampled distribution, applied to the "reference" model. aLMo LAMI LoKal

24 Verification francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05 23 Conclusions a possible cause for the precipitation overestimation is the cloud ice scheme but another causes (masked by the precipitation variability) are also possible, because already before the introduction of cloud ice scheme we had seasons with precipitation overestimation we have regions (especially in southern Europe) with no changes in the yearly (seasonal) biases in the last years

25 Verification francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05 24 Outlook (1) more work necessary to fix the causes for precipitation overestimation scatter plots of daily precipitation sums 'LM vs raingauges, SYNOP-stations, RADAR areal mean’ : this helps to see if this overestimation is due to (some few) cases where the model gives (much) precipitation that is not observed, or whether overestimation of precipitation is a problem in all cases

26 Verification francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05 25 winter 2004 (djf) aLMo D+1 Scatterplot of mean daily precipitation over the Piedmont basins

27 Verification francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05 26 winter 2004 (djf) Lokal D+1 Scatterplot of mean daily precipitation over the Piedmont basins

28 Verification francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05 27 winter 2004 (djf) LAMI D+1 Scatterplot of mean daily precipitation over the Piedmont basins

29 Verification francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05 28 winter 2005 (djf) aLMo D+1 Scatterplot of mean daily precipitation over the Piedmont basins

30 Verification francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05 29 winter 2005 (djf) Lokal D+1 Scatterplot of mean daily precipitation over the Piedmont basins

31 Verification francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05 30 winter 2005 (djf) LAMI D+1 Scatterplot of mean daily precipitation over the Piedmont basins

32 Verification francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05 31 scatterplot daily precipitation Germany: August 2002

33 Verification francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05 32 Scatterplot daily precipitation Germany: December 2002

34 Verification francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05 33 Scatterplot daily precipitation Germany: December 2004

35 Verification francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05 34 Outlook (2) more work would be necessary to fix the causes for precipitation overestimation scatter plots of daily precipitation sums 'LM vs raingauges, SYNOP-stations, RADAR areal mean’ : this helps to see if this overestimation is due to (some few) cases where the model gives (much) precipitation that is not observed, or whether overestimation of precipitation is a problem in all cases set up a simple conditional verification by discriminating: between events of different (observed) vertical stability i.e., unstable = convective (?), stable = stratiform (?) convective/stratiform precip in the model. This would help to attribute the problem to the grid-scale precipitation scheme or the convection scheme, or something else.

36 Verification francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05 35 Outlook (3) strong link to WG1-WG3 for sensitivity studies on a set of selected cases / episodes: analysis / data assimilation dynamics and numerics physics

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