1August 24, 2015 The role of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) for ozone and climate protection Guus Velders The Netherlands (RIVM)

Guus Velders 2 HFCs offset climate benefits Montreal Protocol Dual protection Montreal Protocol: to Ozone layer and Climate change –Already achieved climate benefits 5-6 times larger than Kyoto Protocol targets for Climate benefits can be offset by projected increases in HFCs –HFC emissions can reach 9-19% of CO 2 emissions in 2050

Guus Velders 3 Range of different chemicals CFCs: fully halogenated ●CFCl 3 (CFC-11), CF 2 Cl 2 (CFC-12), etc. Other ozone depleting chemicals: ●CF 3 Br, CF 2 ClBr (Halons – bromine containing species) ●Methyl bromide/chloride, methyl chloroform, CCl 4 Alternatives: HCFCs: partially halogenated ●CHF 2 Cl (HCFC-22), CH 3 CFCl 2, CH 3 CF 2 Cl Alternatives: HFCs: no chlorine ●CH 2 FCF 3 (HFC-134a), CHF 2 CF 3 (HFC-125), CH 3 CF 3 (HFC-143a) ●New: CF 3 CF=CH 2 (HFO-1234yf), CF 3 CH=CHF (HFO-1234ze)

Guus Velders 4 Range of different applications (1) Refrigeration and air conditioning ●Domestic, commercial and industrial: –Originally: CFC-11, CFC-12 –Now: HCFC-22, HFCs, NH 3, CO 2, hydrocarbons ●Mobile air conditioning –Initially: CFC-12 –Now (since ~1995): HFC-134a (all cars) Foam blowing: insulation, packaging ●Originally: CFCs ●Now: HFCs, hydrocarbons, others

Guus Velders 5 Range of different applications (2) Solvent: Dry cleaning, electronics industry ●Originally: CFCs, carbon tetrachloride (CCl 4 ), methyl chloroform (CH 3 CCl 3 ) ●Now:- mostly not-in-kind technologies, water, other chemicals - HFCs for some specialized uses Aerosols: Metered dose inhalers, spray cans (deodorant, hair) ●Originally: CFC-11 ●Now: hydrocarbons, not-in-kind, HFCs (limited uses) Fire fighting agent in aircraft and high-tech facilities ●Originally: halons and CCl 4 ●Now: Inert gas (e.g. CO 2 ), water, HFCs

Guus Velders 6 Ozone depletion through Cl and Br atoms

Guus Velders 7 Ozone depletion through Cl and Br atoms

Guus Velders 8 Montreal Protocol to protect ozone layer ●Montreal Protocol of 1987 ●Subsequent amendments ●Universal ratification ●EESC is a measure of Cl/Br available to destroy ozone ●Also important for ozone recovery ●CO 2, CH 4 and N 2 O emissions ●Very short lived species ●Rockets, aircraft ●Volcanoes ●Geoengeneering

Guus Velders 9 Montreal Protocol changed chemicals used ●Montreal Protocol on Ozone Depleting Substances ●It caused a change in chemicals used for refrigeration, AC, foam blowing, cleaning, fire extinguishing, etc.: CFCs  HCFCs + other techn.  HFCs + other techn. ●Well known benefits for ozone layer ●CFCs, HCFCs, HFCs are all strong greenhouse gases ●Global Warming Potentials (GWPs): –CFCs:4,700 – 11,000 –HCFCs: 100 – 2,200 –HFCs: 130 – 4,200 –HFOs: <20

Guus Velders 10 Well known benefits Montreal Protocol ●Large decreases in CFC production (>98%) and emissions (60-90%) ●Concentrations also decreasing ●Emerging evidence of start of ozone layer recovery ●Full recovery before 2050, later in polar regions WMO (2011)

Guus Velders 11 Metrics used here ●Impacts on climate expressed by –CO 2 -equivalent emissions = Emission x GWPs –Radiative forcing of climate = Abundance x Radiative eff. (W/m 2 /ppb) ●Impacts on ozone layer expressed by –CFC-11-equivalent emissions = Emission x ODPs –Eq. Eff. Stratospheric Chlorine = Abundance x Frac. release + time delay

Guus Velders 12 Different metrics for ozone depleting chemicals ●Ozone layer: –ODP-weighed emissions –Equivalent Effective Stratospheric Chlorine (EESC) ●Climate change: –GWP-weighed emissions –Radiative forcing WMO (2011)

Guus Velders 13 Large climate benefits Montreal Protocol World avoided by the Montreal Protocol Reduction Montreal Protocol of ~11 GtCO 2 -eq/yr  5-6 times Kyoto target ( incl. offsets: HFCs, ozone depl.) CO 2 emissions Velders et al., PNAS, 2007

Guus Velders 14 Radiative forcing leading to climate change Reduction in radiative forcing of ~0.23 Wm -2 in 2010  about 13% of CO 2 emissions of human activities ~0.1 ° C cooling from Montreal Protocol (Estrada et al.; Pretis and Allen, 2013) Velders et al., PNAS (2007) Forcing: delay of ~10 years cf CO 2 emissions

Guus Velders 15 HCFC growth ●CFC phaseout globally in 2010  Accelerated increases in HCFCs ●Developing countries: –HCFC consumption increase: 20%/yr (up to 2007) –CFC+HCFC increase: 8%/yr ●Starting point new scenarios ●HFC-23 emissions not considered Montzka et al., GRL (2009)

Guus Velders 16 HFC: Expected large growth ●HCFCs –Developed countries: controls since 1996 –Developing countries: controls since 2013 –Phaseout in 2030/2040  Much of application demand for refrigeration, AC, heating and thermal-insulating foam production to be met by HFCs –Current forcing small (<1% of total GHG forcing) –Current growth rates of HFCs: 10-15% per year ●Increases directly attributable to Montreal Protocol ●Climate effect is a unintended negative side effect Photo W.S. Velders Montzka, NOAA/ESRL

Guus Velders 17 HFC scenarios ●New HFC scenarios developed –Unchecked emissions –Extrapolating developed country use patterns ●Based on –Increased HCFC consumption developing countries –Atmospheric observations of HCFCs and HFCs –Observed replacements patterns: HCFCs to HFCs –IPCC-SRES: growth rates GDP and population –Provisions Montreal Protocol –Increases in HFC-134a use in mobile AC –Saturation of HFC consumption

Guus Velders 18 Replacing HCFCs with HFCs ●Refrigeration, air conditioning, foam production ●Replacement scheme developed countries: –HCFC-22  35% R404A, 55% R410A, 10% NIK –HCFC-141b  50% HFC-245fa, 50% NIK –HCFC-142b  50% HFC-134a, 50% NIK –R404A, R410A: Blends of HFC-32, -125, -134a, -143a ●Applied to developing countries ●Mobile AC: HFC-134a ●Inhaler: HFC-134a ●Foam, aerosol: HFC-365mfc, HFC-152a (minor use)

Guus Velders 19 HFCs offset climate benefits Montreal Protocol In 2010, CFCs could have reached 15–18 GtCO 2 -eq yr -1 (in absence of Montreal Protocol) In 2050, HFC emissions: 5.5–8.8 GtCO 2 -eq yr -1 = 9–19% of global CO 2 emissions ●Larger in comparison with CO 2 stabilization scenarios from IPCC/AR4 Velders et al., PNAS, 2009

Guus Velders 20 Offsets in terms of radiative forcing ●In 2010, reduction due to Montreal Protocol 0.23 W/m 2 (incl. offsets) ●In 2050, forcing HFCs 0.25–0.40 W/m 2 –Compared with CO 2 (BAU) of 2.9–3.5 W/m 2 –Equivalent to that from 6–13 years of CO 2 emis. ●In 2050, HFC forcing ~ reduction from CO 2 stabilization scenario

Guus Velders 21 Montreal Protocol and Kyoto Protocol ●Montreal Protocol: –Protection of ozone layer (UNEP treaty 1987) –Production and consumption –Gases: CFCs, halons, HCFCs, methyl bromide, etc. –Phase-out schedule (CFCs 2010, HCFCs 2030/2040) –Climate considerations taken into account –Very successful: Universal ratification ●Kyoto Protocol: –Protection of climate (UN treaty 1997) –Emissions –Basket of 6 gases: CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O, HFCs, PFCs, SF 6 –~5% reduction from 1990 by –Emissions reductions of “gases not covered by the Montreal Protocol” –Successful?

Guus Velders 22 What is happening in the political arena ●Amendments proposed to include HFCs in Montreal Protocol –Strong support –Problem caused by Montreal Protocol –Instruments available –Climate considerations are in the text of the Montreal Protocol –Bali decleration by 100+ countries –Strong opposition –HFCs to not destroy ozone –Already in Kyoto –Financial/legal concerns ●Sept. 2013: G20 supports initiatives to use expertise and institutions of Montreal Protocol to phase down HFCs ●Climate and Clean Air Coalition

Guus Velders 23 What is happening in industry (car makers) ●Since 1990s all mobile air-conditioners use HFC-134a (GWP 1370) ●In EU: mobile AC directive: –Refrigerant should have GWP <150 –From 2011 for new type of vehicles (derogation until 12/2012) –In 2013: German car maker still used HFC-134a  France blocked registration of new Mercedes ●Alternatives for HFC-134a: –HFC-1234yf (more or less drop in replacement) –CO 2 promoted by German EPA (needs redesign of engine) –HFC-152a (flammable) Honeywell (2008)

Guus Velders 24 Wide range of HFC lifetimes and GWPs ●Fully saturated HFCs: –HFC-32, -125, -134a, -143a, -152a –Lifetimes: 1 to 50 yr –GWPs: 100 to 4000 ●Unsaturated HFCs (HFOs): –HFC-1234yf, -1234ze –Lifetimes: days to weeks –GWPs: ~20 or less ●If current HFC mix (lifetime 15 yr) were replaced by HFCs with lifetimes less 1 month  forcing in 2050 less than current HFC forcing Velders et al., Science, 2012

Guus Velders 25 Changes in types of applications ●CFCs (1980s) used in very emissive applications ●Spray cans, chemical cleaning ●Release within a year ●HFCs used mostly in slow release applications ●Refrigeration, AC: release from 1 – 10 yr ●Foams: release > 10 yr Velders et al., ACP, 2014

Guus Velders 26 Role of the banks increases ●Banks: HFCs present in equipment: refrigerators, AC, foams, etc. ●Bank about 7 times annual emission ●Phaseout in 2020 instead of 2050 ●Avoided emission: GtCO 2 -eq ●Avoided bank: GtCO 2 -eq  Banks: climate change commitment ●Choices: ●Bank collection, destruction: difficult/costly ●Avoid the buildup of the bank: early phaseout Velders et al., ACP, 2014

Guus Velders 27 Alternatives to ODSs and HFCs ●Replacing high-GWP HFCs with substances with low impact on climate: –Hydrocarbons, CO 2, NH 3, unsaturated HFCs –Alternative technologies ●Reducing emissions: –Changing designs –Capture and destruction ●Low-climate impact alternatives already available commercially in several sectors: –Fiber insulation materials (e.g., mineral wool) –Dry powder asthma inhalers –Hydrocarbons, CO 2, ammonia in refrigeration systems –Unsaturated HFCs introduced for foams, aerosols and mobile AC

Guus Velders 28 Life cycle climate performance (LCCP) ●Important is the total effect on climate ●Direct climate forcings –GWP-weighted emissions, Radiative forcing ●Indirect climate forcings –Energy used or saved during the application lifespan –Energy used to during manufacturing ●Total effect on climate  Life cycle climate performance ●Also important: costs, availability, flammability, toxicity, humidity, etc.

Guus Velders 29 Conclusions ●Dual protection Montreal Protocol: to Ozone layer and Climate change: ●Already achieved climate benefits 5-6 times larger than Kyoto Protocol targets for ●Climate benefits Montreal Protocol can be preserved by limiting HFC growth ●Challenge for policymakers: identify how this can be accomplished

Guus Velders 30 Work performed in close collaboration with: David Fahey (NOAA) John Daniel (NOAA) Steve Andersen (formerly at EPA) Mack McFarland (DuPont) Susan Solomon (MIT) Thank you for your attention References: - Velders et al., Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 104, Velders et al., Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 106, Velders et al., Science, 335, 922, Velders et al., ACP, 14, 2757, Velders et al., ACP, 14, 4563, 2014 HFC-134a and its main IR-frequency