1. Limitations of Single-Basket Trading:
Lessons from the Montreal Protocol for Climate Policy
John S. Daniel
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Chemical Sciences Division
Boulder, Colorado USA
Implications of the particular control strategy to its success
Limitations of Single-Basket Trading: Lessons from the Montreal Protocol for Climate Policy, Daniel, Solomon, Sanford, McFarland, Fuglestvedt, and Friedlingstein, Climatic Change, 2012 (online 2011).

2. Limitations of Single-Basket Trading:
Lessons from the Montreal Protocol for Climate Policy
John S. Daniel
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Chemical Sciences Division
Boulder, Colorado USA
Montreal Protocol Success
A Lesson for Climate Policy
Implications for HFC Policy
Implications of the particular control strategy to its success
Limitations of Single-Basket Trading: Lessons from the Montreal Protocol for Climate Policy, Daniel, Solomon, Sanford, McFarland, Fuglestvedt, and Friedlingstein, Climatic Change, 2012 (online 2011).

3. Montreal Protocol Multiple Basket Approach
• Groups of gases controlled separately (e.g., CFCs, HCFCs, halons, etc.)
Various groups diff phaseout schedules
Reductions of Gases within a group could be traded with reductions of other gases in the same group

4. Montreal Protocol Multiple Basket Approach
• Groups of gases controlled separately (e.g., CFCs, HCFCs, halons, etc.)
• No “trading” among groups

5. Montreal Protocol Multiple Basket Approach
• Groups of gases controlled separately (e.g., CFCs, HCFCs, halons, etc.)
• No “trading” among groups
• Highly successful
Adapted from
Velders et al, PNAS, 2007
No Protocol
A Measure
Of Success

6. Montreal Protocol Multiple Basket Approach
• Groups of gases controlled separately (e.g., CFCs, HCFCs, halons, etc.)
• No “trading” among groups
• Highly successful
• CFCs/HCFCs Illustration
Adapted from
Velders et al, PNAS, 2007
No Protocol
I will use CFCs and HCFCs to explore the hypothetical impacts of a different control strategy – one where CFC and HCFC production could be traded
A Measure
Of Success

7. CFC/HCFC Contribution to O3 Depletion
Obs - based
Projections
Do this with equiv eff strat chlorine or EESC, which is a metric that relates to the amount of chlorine and bromine available to destroy strat ozone
Discuss curve
‘what if, when MP controls went into force, the ODP-weighted emission were kept identical to those used to generate this curve, but all emissions were traded to HCFC emissions, with no CFC emissions”

8. Impact of a Trade to HCFCs
Maybe relate ss ODPs to time-dependent ODPs

9. Single-Basket Range of O3 Depletion
Peak uncertainty
Fast phaseout leads to not much spread in future possibilities

10. Kyoto Protocol Single Basket Approach
PFCs
CO2
CH4
N2O
HFCs
SF6

11. Kyoto Protocol Single Basket Approach
PFCs
CO2
CH4
N2O
HFCs
SF6
2010 Radiative Forcing

12. Kyoto Protocol Single Basket Approach
PFCs
CO2
CH4
N2O
HFCs
SF6
2010 Radiative Forcing

13. CO2/CH4 Impact on Climate (RCP4.5)

14. Impact of a Trade to All CH4 Emissions
Trades begin in about 2040

15. Impact of a Trade to All CO2 Emissions

16. Ambiguity of Single Basket
if the GWP-weighted emission level is prescribed for every year, depending on how trading occurs, the range of T increases by 2400 will be 2-4C, with the range continuing to expand

17. Implications for HFCs
Velders et al, PNAS, 2009

18. Radiative Forcing Change
Implications for HFCs
Radiative Forcing Change
from 2010 to 2050 (RCP8.5)
1.8
Velders et al, PNAS, 2009

19. Implications for HFCs
This can all be avoided
Velders, PNAS, 2009

20. Implications for HFCs This can all be avoided Potential
Long-term penalty
Velders, PNAS, 2009

21. N2O and Ozone Depletion
Ravishankara et al., 2009

22. Conclusions
The Montreal Protocol successfully implemented a multi-basket approach to deal with the international problem of stratospheric ozone depletion.
A single-basket approach, as used in the Kyoto Protocol, can lead to some level of ambiguity in the climate impact of regulation.
If regulation on some group of gases (e.g., HFCs) has the inadvertent affect of delaying CO2 regulation, this will have multi-century climate implications.
Perhaps mention advantage of HFC phaseout in terms of avoiding future forcing – and in a multi-basket approach, you know what you will get
Then point out issue 3