Richard Whitman, Director Oregon Department of Land Conservation and Development October 8, 2010 Oregon’s Efforts to Reduce GHG Emissions and Adapt to Climate Change: A Brief Status Report

October 2010Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning Fall Canceled After 3 Billion Seasons WASHINGTON, DC—Fall, the long- running series of shorter days and cooler nights, was canceled earlier this week after nearly 3 billion seasons on Earth, sources reported Tuesday “As much as we'd like to see it stay, fall will not be returning for another season," National Weather Service president John Hayes announced during a muggy press conference Nov. 6. "Fall had a great run, but sadly, times have changed."

October 2010Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning Overview Mitigation – Focus on Transportation and Land Use Mitigation – Focus on Transportation and Land Use Adaptation – Focus on Hazards Planning Adaptation – Focus on Hazards Planning

October 2010Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning Existing State Legislative Goals for GHG Reduction By 2010 stop growth By 2010 stop growth By 2020 – 10% below 1990 By 2020 – 10% below 1990 By 2050 – 75% below 1990 By 2050 – 75% below 1990 HB 3543 (2007)

October 2010Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning Oregon GHG Goals vs. Forecast

October 2010Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning

October 2010Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning Key Recent Oregon Legislation Mitigation Mitigation HB 3543 (2007) (GHG reduction goals, Global Warming Commission, Oregon Climate Change Research Institute) HB 3543 (2007) (GHG reduction goals, Global Warming Commission, Oregon Climate Change Research Institute) SB 838 (2007) (renewable portfolio standard) SB 838 (2007) (renewable portfolio standard) HB 2186 (2009) (low carbon fuel standard 10% reduction per unit fuel over 10 years) HB 2186 (2009) (low carbon fuel standard 10% reduction per unit fuel over 10 years) HB 2001 (2009) (Transportation GHG target for Portland Metro, transportation and land use planning to meet target) HB 2001 (2009) (Transportation GHG target for Portland Metro, transportation and land use planning to meet target) SB 1059 (2010) (Transportation GHG target for other MPO areas) SB 1059 (2010) (Transportation GHG target for other MPO areas) Adaptation? Adaptation?

October 2010Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning HB 2001 and SB 1059 Portland Metro (HB 2001) Portland Metro (HB 2001) Technical Inputs by DEQ, ODOE, ODOT Technical Inputs by DEQ, ODOE, ODOT Target for 2035 set by LCDC in June 2011 Target for 2035 set by LCDC in June 2011 Metro develops 2+ scenarios by 2012 Metro develops 2+ scenarios by 2012 LCDC adopts rules for selection of preferred scenario by 2013 LCDC adopts rules for selection of preferred scenario by 2013 Preferred Plan adopted and implemented beginning in 2013 Preferred Plan adopted and implemented beginning in 2013 Other MPO Areas (Salem, Corvallis, Eugene- Springfield, Medford and Bend) (SB 1059) Other MPO Areas (Salem, Corvallis, Eugene- Springfield, Medford and Bend) (SB 1059) Statewide Strategy (OTC) Statewide Strategy (OTC) Targets for other areas set by LCDC in June 2011 Targets for other areas set by LCDC in June 2011 Toolkit, Planning Guidelines Toolkit, Planning Guidelines

Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning Technical Info for LCDC Rulemaking ODOT, DEQ, and ODOE provide estimates of 1990 light vehicle GHG emissions and forecasts of future vehicle fleet and fuel characteristics. Scenario Planning Guidelines Guidelines and process for metropolitan areas to develop land use and transportation scenarios to meet GHG reduction targets. Technical Advisory Committee Toolkit Information on actions and programs local governments may undertake to reduce GHG emissions from light vehicles. Public Education Statewide public outreach and education about the need to reduce GHG emissions from light vehicles and about the costs and benefits of reducing GHG emissions. Statewide Transportation Strategy Statewide strategy for reducing GHG emissions from the transportation sector to aid in achieving legislated GHG reduction targets. To be adopted by the Oregon Transportation Commission. Policy Committee Technical Advisory Committee LCDC Rulemaking to Set Metropolitan Area Light Vehicle GHG Emissions Targets Target Rulemaking Advisory Committee (TRAC) Progress and Recommendations Report Joint ODOT & DLCD report to 77 th Legislative Assembly regarding SB 1059 progress. Scenario Planning Financial Report Joint ODOT, DLCD, local governments report to 76 th Legislative Assembly on financing scenario planning

October 2010Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning Technical Estimates of Vehicles, Fuels, VMT By ODOT, DEQ, ODOE By ODOT, DEQ, ODOE 1990 and 2035 baseline estimates of: 1990 and 2035 baseline estimates of: Vehicle fleet Vehicle fleet Fuels Fuels VMT VMT Informs state strategy and target setting Informs state strategy and target setting Advisory Committees Advisory Committees All advisory committees will review All advisory committees will review Schedule Schedule Final due by March 1, 2011 Final due by March 1, 2011 Draft expected sooner Draft expected sooner

October 2010Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning Statewide Transportation Strategy By ODOT/OTC By ODOT/OTC Covers transportation sector; statewide Covers transportation sector; statewide State programs and policies to reduce GHG State programs and policies to reduce GHG Includes assumptions about federal policies Includes assumptions about federal policies Advisory Committees Advisory Committees Policy Committee Policy Committee Technical Advisory Committee Technical Advisory Committee Schedule Schedule Phase 1 – Early Light vehicles Phase 1 – Early Light vehicles Phase 2 – Late 2011 – Remainder of transportation sector (heavy vehicles, air, marine, rail etc.) Phase 2 – Late 2011 – Remainder of transportation sector (heavy vehicles, air, marine, rail etc.)

October 2010Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning Target Rulemaking By LCDC By LCDC For each metropolitan area For each metropolitan area Informed by agency estimates and statewide strategy Informed by agency estimates and statewide strategy Advisory Committee Target Rulemaking Advisory Committee (TRAC) Schedule Due by June 1, 2011 Due by June 1, 2011

October 2010Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning Scenario Planning Guidelines By ODOT and DLCD Advisory Process for scenario planning Steps/ who does it Assumptions Evaluation methods Allow for a range of actions for reducing GHG Integrate with existing planning processes Advisory Committee Advisory Committee Scenario Planning Technical Advisory Committee Schedule Schedule Draft by April 2011 Draft by April 2011 Final Fall 2011 Final Fall 2011

October 2010Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning Toolkit By ODOT and DLCD By ODOT and DLCD Best Practices for GHG reduction Best Practices for GHG reduction Local & regional programs and actions Local & regional programs and actions Provide examples Provide examples Document GHG reduction effects Document GHG reduction effects Identify benefits/ co-benefits Identify benefits/ co-benefits Recommend Analysis and Modeling Tools Recommend Analysis and Modeling Tools Schedule Schedule Draft by April 2011 Draft by April 2011 Final Fall 2011 Final Fall 2011 Cool Planning: Version 1.0 Cool Planning: Version 1.0

October 2010Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning

October 2010Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning Cool Planning ( )

October 2010Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning Scenario Planning Funding Report By ODOT/DLCD in consultation with metropolitan local governments By ODOT/DLCD in consultation with metropolitan local governments Estimate funding local governments need to conduct scenario planning Estimate funding local governments need to conduct scenario planning Schedule Schedule Report to Legislature due January 2011 Report to Legislature due January 2011 Consultation starts later this month Consultation starts later this month

October 2010Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning Education & Outreach Strategy to be developed Strategy to be developed Outreach to public about Outreach to public about Need to reduce GHG emissions from light vehicle travel Need to reduce GHG emissions from light vehicle travel Costs and benefits of GHG emission reduction Costs and benefits of GHG emission reduction

October 2010Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning Part 2: Climate Change Adaptation in Oregon Climate Change Integration Group (CCIG) Report (Jan. 2008) (initial recommendations for adaptation Climate Change Integration Group (CCIG) Report (Jan. 2008) (initial recommendations for adaptation OCCRI – State of the Climate Science in Oregon (Dec. 2010) OCCRI – State of the Climate Science in Oregon (Dec. 2010)

October 2010Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning Likely changes in future climate conditions in Oregon 1.Increase in average annual air temperatures 2.Changes in hydrology, water supply, and water quality; reduced snowpack and water availability in some basins, changes in timing of water availability 3.Increased incidence of drought 4.Increased coastal erosion from increasing sea levels and increasing wave heights and storm surges related to intensification of North Pacific winter storms 5.Shift in distribution of habitats and species, with a likely increase in invasive species and reduced ability of terrestrial and aquatic habitats to support wildlife species and populations

October 2010Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning Likely changes in future climate conditions in Oregon 6.Increase in ocean temperatures, with potential for changes in ocean chemistry (nutrients and dissolved oxygen) and increased ocean acidification 7.Increased frequency of extreme daily precipitation events 8.Increase in wildfire frequency and intensity 9.Increase in incidence and magnitude of damaging floods 10. Increase in incidence of landslides 11. Increase in diseases, insect pests, and plant pests 12. Loss of wetland ecosystem services

October 2010Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning Outline of Adaptation Framework 1.Risk assessment 2.Likelihood of the risk 3.Timing and geography of the risk 4.Related risks 5.Summary of consequences of the risk Ecosystems Built and developed systems Economic systems Public health and safety 6. Gaps in state capacity to address the risk: 7.Needed actions a. Priority Actions b. Actions that apply to several risks c. Additional actions 8.Implementing the framework a. Information base for decisions b. Monitoring c. Coordination with local governments, federal agencies, & other partners 9.References

October 2010Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning Adaptation Framework: Short-Term Priority Actions For each major risk – short term priority actions that the state should consider (low hanging fruit) For each major risk – short term priority actions that the state should consider (low hanging fruit) Initial cost-benefit analysis Initial cost-benefit analysis Delivered to the new Governor and legislature in December 2010 Delivered to the new Governor and legislature in December 2010

October 2010Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning Questions? More Information: GHG Mitigation in Transportation: Bob Cortright Climate Adaptation Framework: Jeff Weber Jeff Weber