Modeling C2 Decision-Making Processes Operational Perspectives Summer Workshop July/August 2001 Dr. Richard E. (Dick) Hayes Evidence Based Research, Inc.

2 Models Must Allow for Non-Linear and Cascading Effects “In war, trivial causes produce momentous results.” Julius Caesar

3 Models Must Be Complete “My 3 tells me what I can do, my 4 tells me what I cannot.” Omar Bradley “The following three factors basically affect an air- superiority campaign: materiel, personnel, and position.” John A. Warden III “An Army marches on its stomach.” Napolean Bonaparte

4 Models Must Reflect Fog and Friction “Everything in war is very simple, but the simplest thing is difficult. These difficulties accumulate and end by producing a kind of friction that is inconceivable unless one has experienced war.” Carl von Clausewitz “War is a catalogue of blunders.” Winston Churchill “Battle is a fog for the men who fight. The small unit will usually remain in the dark about its own achievements unless someone from higher up clarifies ‘the big picture.’” S. L. A. Marshall

5 Models Must Provide Stochastic Results “Something must be left to chance, nothing is sure in a sea fight.” Horatio Nelson “An important difference between the military operation and a surgical operation is that the patient is tied down. But it is a common fault of generalship to assume that he is.” B. H. Liddell Hart “The trouble with air power, I had warned the President, is that you leave the initiative in the hands of the enemy. He gets to decide when he has had enough.” Colin Powell

6 Models Must Be Probabilistic “Military Science consists in calculating all the chances accurately in the first place, and then in giving accident exactly, almost mathematically, its place in one’s calculations. It is upon this point that one must not deceive oneself, and yet a decimal more or less may change all.” Napoleon Bonaparte “Circumstances vary so enormously in war, and are so indefinable, that a vast array of factors has to be appreciated -- mostly in the light of probabilities alone.” Carl von Clausewitz

7 Models Must Be Two-Sided, With A Capable, Learning Adversary “You do not assume away any capability the enemy has.” H. Norman Schwarzkopf “We have moved into a new era of strategy that is very different to what was assumed by the advocates of air- atomic power…. The strategy now being developed by our opponents is inspired by the dual idea of evading and hamstringing air-atomic power. Ironically, the further we have developed the ‘massive’ effect of the bombing weapons, the more we have helped the progress of this new guerrilla-type strategy.” B. H. Liddell Hart

8 Models of C2 Decision Making Must Reflect Agility, Particularly Selecting the Times and Places to Fight “Japan failed to see the new concept of war which was used against her, involving the by-passing of strongly-defended points and, by the use of the combined services, the cutting of essential lines of communication, whereby these defensive positions were rendered strategically useless and eventually retaken.” Douglas MacArthur “Mahan was right to emphasize that it is the foremost responsibility of every battle fleet commander to concentrate forces and win battles with tactical skill. Corbett was right to emphasize that strategic considerations determine whether a decisive battle should occur.” Wayne P. Hughes

9 Models Must Be Able to Reflect New Ways of Doing Business “The only thing harder than getting a new idea into the military mind is to get an old one out.” B. H. Liddell Hart “Nothing remains static in war or in military weapons, and it is consequently often dangerous to rely on courses suggested by apparent similarities to the past.” Admiral Ernest Joseph King “The military mind always imagines that the next war will be on the same lines as the last. That never was the case and never will be.” Marshall Ferdinand Foch

10 Models Must Enable Naturalistic Decision Making “After a battle is over people talk a lot about how decisions were methodically reached, but actually there’s always a hell of a lot of groping around.” Admiral Frank Fletcher

11 Summary Models Must Allow for Non-Linear and Cascading Effects Models Must Be Complete Models Must Reflect Fog and Friction Models Must Provide Stochastic Results Models Must Be Probabilistic Models Must Be Two-Sided, With A Capable, Learning Adversary Models of C2 Decision Making Must Reflect Agility, Particularly Selecting the Times and Places to Fight Models Must Be Able to Reflect New Ways of Doing Business Models Must Enable Naturalistic Decision Making