Improving Internal Migration Estimates Esther R. Miller Presentation to FSCPE Co-op Meetings Washington, DC October 2004

Overview of Presentation Step 1:Obtain Administrative Records Step 2:Assign Characteristics Step 3:Assign Migration Status Step 4:Scenario Step 5:Migration Status Step 6:Compare Outcome to “Truth” Step 7:Research Agenda

3 Step 1: Obtain Administrative Records and match by PIK Internal Revenue Service (IRS) 1040 files –Address as of April 15, 2002 (Y1) –Address as of April 15, 2003 (Y2) –Number of exemptions – filer, spouse, child, parent Social Security Numident File –Collapse records to Census Numident Person Characteristics File (PCF) –File contains modeled age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin for all persons with an SSN

4 Step 2:Assign Characteristics: Return Based Methodology Age –Filer and spouse exemptions are assigned filer’s age from PCF –Child exemptions are assigned to a 19 and under age category –Parent exemptions are assigned to a 65+ age category Sex –Filer is assigned filer’s sex from PCF –Spouse exemption is assigned opposite sex of filer –Child and parent exemptions are assigned sex by random number generator

5 Step 2:Assign Characteristics: Return Based Methodology (cont.) Race and Hispanic Origin (HO) –Filer is assigned filer’s race and HO from PCF –Spouse is assigned filer’s race and HO from PCF –Child and parent exemptions are assigned filer’s race and HO

6 Step 2:Assign Characteristics: Person Base Age, sex, race, Hispanic Origin –Filer is assigned filer’s characteristics from PCF –Spouse is assigned spouse’s characteristics from PCF –Child exemptions are assigned child’s characteristics from PCF –Parent exemptions are assigned parent’s characteristics from PCF

7 Step 3Assign Migration Status: Compare FIPS code Y1-Y2 Return Based –Filer, spouse, child, and parent exemptions are all assigned filer’s Y1 and Y2 State and County FIPS codes Person Based –Filer, spouse, child, and parent exemptions are all assigned filer’s Y1 and Y2 State and County FIPS codes

8 Step 4:Scenario: Migration and Type of Action AgeStateStatus Type of Action AgeState Filer64NJSameFiler66NJ Spouse56NJSameDivorced58MA Daughter14NJSameDaughter16MA Son20NJSameSon22NJ Son20NJSameStudent22WI

9 Step 5:Migration Status Returns Base (as is) Type of Exemption AgeMigration Status Type of Exemption AgeMigration Status Filer65nonmoverFiler66nonmover Spouse65nonmoverFiler58Y2 only Son or Daughter < = 19nonmoverSon or Daughter < = 19Y2 only Son or Daughter <= 19nonmoverSon or Daughter <= 19nonmover Son or Daughter <= 19nonmoverFiler22Y2 only

10 Step 5:Migration Status Person Based Type of Exemption AgeMigration Status Type of Exemption AgeMigration Status Filer65nonmoverFiler66nonmover Spouse57nonmoverFiler58mover Daughter15nonmoverDaughter16mover Son21nonmoverSon22nonmover Son21nonmoverFiler22mover

11 Step 6:Compare Outcome to “Truth” Returns Based 2001 – 2002 –Migration status is correct –Spouse’s age is miscoded –Dependent’s sex may or may not be miscoded –Twin’s ages are miscoded –Race and HO may or may not be the same as filer’s 2002 – 2003 –Lose migration status (and exemptions) for divorced spouse, child, and new filer –Dependent’s sex may or may not be miscoded –Dependent’s age is miscoded –Race and HO may or may not be the same as filer’s

12 Step 6:Compare Outcome to “Truth” Person Based 2001 – 2002 –Migration status is correct –Accurate age for all exemptions Moved “child” to “adult” status –Accurate sex, race, and HO for all exemptions 2002 – 2003 –Migration status is correct –Pick up two additional filers and one additional exemption –Accurate ages for all exemptions Moved “child” to “adult” status –Accurate sex, race, and HO for all exemptions

13 Step 7: Future Research Present preliminary analysis –Hyo Park at SDA 2004 Continue analysis on effects of characteristics Collaborate with another division in Bureau to incorporate full set of administrative records –Medicare –IRS 1099s –HUD –Indian Health Service

14 Step 7: Future Research (cont.) Incorporate ACS into research Long term goal –Investigate bias in migration assumptions and estimates –Develop comprehensive migration model