Public Opinion Part II

What Moves Public Opinion? Real world events (wars, economic factors, various salient issues) Personal Experience? Elite Discussion Politics (Campaigns, speeches, etc) The Media Public opinion itself

Real World Events Many Factors influence presidential Approval Here- Uptick around start of war As war progresses, decreased support.

Real World Factors-The Economy UnemploymentInflation Current conditions Expectations State of Economy State of Personal Finances

Personal Experience Fairly Weak Influence E.g. most satisfied with own health care Crime victims not more fearful of crime Civil Rights/Busing

Elite Discourse Can Move Public Opinion Only effective when elites have one message When Multiple Messages, citizens fall back to original opinions

Elite Discourse E.g. Vietnam Early- Most Elites Support War More Media exposure-> More support More Media exposure-> More support Mainstreaming Mainstreaming Late- Divided Elite Opinion Some Hawks, some Doves Some Hawks, some Doves Opinion Depends on previous Opinion Depends on previous Polarization Polarization

Mainstreaming News Exposure Support for Vietnam War Hawks Doves

Polarizing News Exposure Support for Vietnam War Hawks Doves

Public Opinion Itself Public opinion widely reported May cause people to change mind Bandwagon effect Bandwagon effect Reconsider reasons Reconsider reasons Example- Health care 1994 Large majority of Americans satisfied with own healthcare Large majority of Americans satisfied with own healthcare Large majority think most people get bad care Large majority think most people get bad care As reports about public concern increases, public concern increases As reports about public concern increases, public concern increases

Measuring Public Opinion Polling Constituent Letters Letters to the editor Graffiti

Types of Polls Telephone In Person Exit Poll Mail Surveys Internet Poll

Attributes of a Poll Fixed Questionnaire Sample of population Random Sampling

Shortcomings of Polls Accuracy? Margin of Error Margin of Error Social Desirability Question wording Declining Response rates Cell Phones Cell Phones

The Ugly- Literary Digest Poll 1936 Election Over 1 Million Respondents Predicts Alf Landon Win Problem- Selecting Participants Problem- Low response rate Problem- Too far in advance of election

Polling and Democracy Verba- Allows voices to be heard that would not otherwise Allows greater detail on wishes of public than elections would. Dryzek- Empowers status quo Does not allow spontaneous expression of opinion

The Uses Of Polls The media Election Forecasting By the public By politicians To inform policy To inform policy To sell policy To sell policy By Interest groups

Public Opinion and Representation Large shifts in opinion -> changes in policy District level Congruence in some policy domains Strongest in states with referendum Strongest in states with referendum

Public Opinion and Representation Can reign in lobbyists When is public opinion influential? When it sends a clear message When it moves dramatically When Issue is Salient Limits Not all issues salient Not all issues salient Public opinion shifts Public opinion shifts

Public Opinion and Elections Surveys allow for forecasting Can enable strategic voting Large impact on fundraising Horse race coverage

Presidential Approval “Do you generally approve of the way ________ is handling his job as president?” Important resource Increased Bargaining Power More successful with congress Success brings success

Sources of Approval (or lack thereof) The economy Both current performance and expectations Both current performance and expectations Economy as a whole more important than personal Economy as a whole more important than personal Presidential “drama” War/foreign policy Media Coverage Priming Focusing attention on particular areas Focusing attention on particular areas Can help or hurt overall approval Can help or hurt overall approval

Political Trust Most of the time, can you trust government to do the right thing? Trend- Generally decreasing Similar trend for other institutions as well Sources? Policy Dissatisfaction Increasing gap between promises/results Political Scandal/Media

Political Trust Consequences Decreased Turnout? Electoral Choice Benefits 3 rd party candidates and challengers Benefits 3 rd party candidates and challengers Difficulty building policy support

Tolerance A willingness to tolerate the presence of ideas that you do not agree with Stouffer % of respondents support abstract liberties 30-35% support applications of those liberties The more educated more likely to be tolerant

Tolerance More recent work Gap between abstract and applied Gap between educated and not? Different groups-> different results When allowed to pick groups they don’t like, more educated nearly as intolerant Americans not much more tolerant than in the 50s?

Exam People generally did pretty well Score reflects extra credit question from exam +2 if you submitted a review question Average (without review question) 83