Incorporating Long-Term Climate Variability in Water Resource Planning Mark Shafer Oklahoma Climatological Survey

Types of Information Use (from Weiss 1979) Intellectual Enterprise Intellectual Enterprise Knowledge-Driven Knowledge-Driven Problem-Oriented Problem-Oriented Enlightenment Enlightenment Political Political Tactical Tactical

Intellectual Enterprise Analysis undertaken to improve intellectual understanding of the process; not necessarily oriented toward application Analysis undertaken to improve intellectual understanding of the process; not necessarily oriented toward application The hallmark of many scientific studies – aimed at understanding a complex physical system and sharing results among the scientific community The hallmark of many scientific studies – aimed at understanding a complex physical system and sharing results among the scientific community Advances state of knowledge but does not necessarily meet decision-makers needs Advances state of knowledge but does not necessarily meet decision-makers needs

Knowledge-Driven Background information relating to a problem (rather than specific recommendations) Background information relating to a problem (rather than specific recommendations) May be used to ‘educate’ individuals about some aspect of a problem or as a basis to persuade others that a problem even exists May be used to ‘educate’ individuals about some aspect of a problem or as a basis to persuade others that a problem even exists

Problem-Oriented Analysis undertaken to address a specific need Analysis undertaken to address a specific need Instrumental use – a one-on-one relationship between an analysis and policy outcomes Instrumental use – a one-on-one relationship between an analysis and policy outcomes Decision-makers define need; study addresses need and offers recommendations Decision-makers define need; study addresses need and offers recommendations Example: NAS review of IPCC reports at request of White House Example: NAS review of IPCC reports at request of White House

Enlightenment Analysis creates ‘inventories of information’ that alter subsequent debate, but does not have an immediate impact Analysis creates ‘inventories of information’ that alter subsequent debate, but does not have an immediate impact Series of findings gradually alter the environment in which discussion takes place Series of findings gradually alter the environment in which discussion takes place Example: global climate change went from cooling (1970s) to warming (1990s) Example: global climate change went from cooling (1970s) to warming (1990s)

Political / Tactical Political: An analysis is used to justify a previously-made decision; report offers legitimacy but does not affect decisions Political: An analysis is used to justify a previously-made decision; report offers legitimacy but does not affect decisions Tactical: An analysis is commissioned in order to delay a decision; report may never be read Tactical: An analysis is commissioned in order to delay a decision; report may never be read

Standards of Utilization (from Knott and Wildavsky 1980) Reception: decision-maker received a report Reception: decision-maker received a report –Assumes it is the analyst’s duty only to produce the information Cognition: decision-maker received and read the report Cognition: decision-maker received and read the report Reference: decision-maker changed her perspective as a result of the report Reference: decision-maker changed her perspective as a result of the report

Standards of Utilization (from Knott and Wildavsky 1980) Effort: decision-maker used the report to persuade others Effort: decision-maker used the report to persuade others Adoption: one or more of the report’s recommendations adopted by a council or governing body Adoption: one or more of the report’s recommendations adopted by a council or governing body Implementation: recommendations are incorporated into agency operations Implementation: recommendations are incorporated into agency operations Impact: report changed some aspect of the problem which it sought to address Impact: report changed some aspect of the problem which it sought to address

Bottom Line on Utilization Scientists cannot always ‘let the results speak for themselves’ Scientists cannot always ‘let the results speak for themselves’ Results must be framed in the context in which decision-makers operate Results must be framed in the context in which decision-makers operate Findings must address problems facing one or more decision-makers Findings must address problems facing one or more decision-makers Findings must be framed in context of other information Findings must be framed in context of other information Report must make sense to the decision-maker Report must make sense to the decision-maker

Scientists and Decision-Makers “The Two Cultures” “The Two Cultures” –A ‘vast chasm’ across which communication has ceased to exist –Disparate perspectives leading to misunderstanding, incomprehension, and distorted images Cultural differences extend more broadly to academic community Cultural differences extend more broadly to academic community Implications: difficulties between researchers and practitioners, leading to dis-engagement from politics Implications: difficulties between researchers and practitioners, leading to dis-engagement from politics

The Policy Environment Problem-oriented, contextual, multidisciplinary, normative Problem-oriented, contextual, multidisciplinary, normative Factors other than information influence decisions: Factors other than information influence decisions: –Dissemination source –Content (message) –Dissemination medium –Characteristics of end-user

Decision-Making Processes Rational model – collect evidence, evaluate Rational model – collect evidence, evaluate ‘Satisficing’ – first option that works ‘Satisficing’ – first option that works Incremental adjustment – ‘tinkering’ Incremental adjustment – ‘tinkering’ Borrowing alternatives – diffusion Borrowing alternatives – diffusion Institutional structures – define credible sources, provide resources, common knowledge base Institutional structures – define credible sources, provide resources, common knowledge base

Bridging the Barrier Factors that encourage utilization 1. Establish organization’s credibility 2. Promote findings, especially examples where information is being used by others 3. Identify key issues defined by decision-makers (problem-oriented studies) 4. Frame findings to match alternatives 5. Format message to match decision-making styles (perspectives, backgrounds, needs)

Bridging the Barrier Factors that encourage utilization 6. Develop personal relationships with intended recipients (become key resource, re-interpret information as context changes 7. Monitor implementation – are policies actually being implemented? 8. Advertise issue and policies to the affected communities / end-users 9. Don’t get frustrated – Study is only one element of larger decision-making arena

Advice to the scientific community: ‘Stay on Message’